Drawsandmore Posted April 3, 2012 Author Share Posted April 3, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II There are quite a few bets this week, the first of which is on Tuesday. At least it was until the heavens opened up! Gateshead v Luton is postponed due to a waterlogged pitch, so the next selections, (currently 3 of them) will be on Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 6, 2012 Author Share Posted April 6, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Three bets today to start off a fairly busy weekend :hope Cham. Watford v Blackpool (X) 4 points @ 3.57 Pinnacle D1. Tranmere v Stevenage (X)4 points @ 3.41 Pinnacle D2. Bradford v Southend (X) 4 points @ 3.55 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 7, 2012 Author Share Posted April 7, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Cham. Watford v Blackpool (X) 4 points @ 3.57 Pinnacle ...0 - 2 Lost :( D1. Tranmere v Stevenage (X)4 points @ 3.41 Pinnacle ...3 - 0 Lost :wall D2. Bradford v Southend (X) 4 points @ 3.55 Pinnacle ...2 - 0 Lost :( Not a good start to the weekend! Two more for today: Prem. Bolton v Fulham (X) 4 points @ 3.49 Pinnacle Prem. Norwich v Everton (X) 4 points @ 3.40 Boylesports :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Prem. Bolton v Fulham (X) 4 points @ 3.49 Pinnacle ...0 - 3 Lost :wall Prem. Norwich v Everton (X) 4 points @ 3.40 Boylesports ...2 - 2 Won :) And three more to round off the week:Prem. Fulham v Chelsea (X) 4 points @ 3.50 Betfred Cham. Cardiff v Watford (X) 4 points @ 3.95 Pinnacle D2 Accrington v Hereford (X) 4 points @ 3.52 Pinnacle :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Prem. Fulham v Chelsea (X) 4 points @ 3.50 Betfred ...1 - 1 Won :) Cham. Cardiff v Watford (X) 4 points @ 3.95 Pinnacle ...1 - 1 Won :) D2 Accrington v Hereford (X) 4 points @ 3.52 Pinnacle ...2 - 1 Lost :( Two out of three today, and three out of eight for the week...I'm not greedy, I'll settle for that every week until the end of the season! A profitable week, and a positive start to the month with the thread returning to profit, (albeit not by much). I've updated the table in the first post. Back again with one bet tomorrow, to be followed by another on Wednesday, and currently 5 bets on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 10, 2012 Author Share Posted April 10, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Just the one for tonight :hope Prem Blackburn v Liverpool (X) 4 points @ 3.60 Betvictor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 11, 2012 Author Share Posted April 11, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Prem Blackburn v Liverpool (X) 4 points @ 3.60 Betvictor ...2 - 3 Lost :( I really wish Andy Carroll hadn't chosen to end his 517 minute goal drought in the 91st minute of this match! C'est la vie Anyway, one for tonight Prem QPR v Swansea (X) 4 points @ 3.51 Pinnacle :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Prem QPR v Swansea (X) 4 points @ 3.51 Pinnacle ...3 - 0 Lost :wall That could have gone better! Never mind, following the midweek results, there is now a selection for Friday: Cham. Southampton v Reading (X) 4 points @ 3.44 Pinnacle :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Cham. Southampton v Reading (X) 4 points @ 3.44 Pinnacle ...1 - 3 Lost :( Three losing bets for the system so far this week, and I "felt" good about all of them. How bad is today likely to be with five bets that I really don't fancy :unsure Back shortly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II So, if anyone is still reading this thread, you mght want to consider laying these "draws"!!! :wall D1 Carlisle v Charlton (X) 4 points @ 3.46 Pinnacle D1 Yeovil v Stevenage (X) 4 points @ 3.42 Pinnacle Conf. Alfreton v Luton (X) 4 points @ 3.67 Pinnacle Conf. Barrow v Cambridge (X) 4 points @ 3.40 Pinnacle Conf. Ebbsfleet v AFC Telford (X) 4 points @ 3.55 Pinnacle Come on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II continue....i am following you... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II continue....i am following you... Not with money I hope! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II D1 Carlisle v Charlton (X) 4 points @ 3.46 Pinnacle ...0 - 1 Lost :( D1 Yeovil v Stevenage (X) 4 points @ 3.42 Pinnacle ...0 - 6 Lost :wall Conf. Alfreton v Luton (X) 4 points @ 3.67 Pinnacle ...0 - 0 Won :) Conf. Barrow v Cambridge (X) 4 points @ 3.40 Pinnacle ...1 - 3 Lost :( Conf. Ebbsfleet v AFC Telford (X) 4 points @ 3.55 Pinnacle ...3 - 2 Lost :( Given that this weekend, over 43% of all matches played in the English divisions finished as draws, the performance of my system can only be described as piss poor...One correct from six :eyes One out of nine correct for the week...So it will come as no surprise that the week was a losing one, and the thread is now back in the red. (Table updated in the first post). Quite a few matches next week, starting with two on Tuesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Two for tonight: Cham. Coventry v Millwall (X) 4 points @ 3.63 Pinnacle D2 Aldershot V Swindon (X) 4 points @ 3.58 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 17, 2012 Author Share Posted April 17, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Cham. Coventry v Millwall (X) 4 points @ 3.63 Pinnacle ...0 - 1 Lost :( D2 Aldershot V Swindon (X) 4 points @ 3.58 Pinnacle ...2 - 1 Lost :( And yet another night of disappointment. :$ I'm still betting with the bookmakers money, but if you take away the free bets I've accumulated to date, after 214 bets I'm actually in profit by a somewhat less than impressive 0.8 points, (and that's only because I mucked up my bets...I missed backing a loser, and mistakenly staked double on a winning bet). It appears that this particular incarnation of my rating system has run it's course, and isn't really a viable alternative to a retirement plan, (but just wait until you see the new version!! lol). However, I will keep betting and see the thread through in its current form to the end of the season...After all, it only needs 3 from 5 at the weekend for the thread to get back in the black! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II One for tonight: Conf. Mansfield v Wrexham (X) 4 points @ 3.45 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Conf. Mansfield v Wrexham (X) 4 points @ 3.45 Pinnacle ...2 - 0 Lost :( Four for tomorrow to follow later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Four for today Cham. Cardiff v Leeds (X) 4 points @ 4.07 Pinnacle D1 Huddersfield v Scunthorpe (X) 4 points @ 3.94 Pinnacle D2 Burton v Aldershot (X) 4 points @ 3.40 Boylesports D2 Plymouth v Oxford (X) 4 points @ 3.40 Boylesports Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Cham. Cardiff v Leeds (X) 4 points @ 4.07 Pinnacle ...1 - 1 Won D1 Huddersfield v Scunthorpe (X) 4 points @ 3.94 Pinnacle ...1 - 0 Lost D2 Burton v Aldershot (X) 4 points @ 3.40 Boylesports ...0 - 4 Lost D2 Plymouth v Oxford (X) 4 points @ 3.40 Boylesports ...1 - 1 Lost A profitable week, but the thread still remains just in the red! I've updated the table in the first post. Not many matches left now until the end of the season, and it looks like there will be five bets this week...Two winners should ensure a profitable month, and put the thread back in the black. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Five for today...If I'm honest, I don't "feel" good about any of them, but we shall see! D1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth (X) 4 points @ 3.4 Coral D2 Morecambe v Plymouth (X) 4 points @ 3.40 Totesport Conf. Barrow v Newport (X) 4 points @ 3.56 Pinnacle Conf. Ebbsfleet v Lincoln (X) 4 points @ 3.56 Pinnacle Conf. York v Forest Green (X) 4 points @ 3.75 Spreadex Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Oops...The correct odds on the Ebbsfleet match are actually 3.63 with Pinnacle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted April 29, 2012 Author Share Posted April 29, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II D1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth (X) 4 points @ 3.4 Coral...1 - 1 Won :) D2 Morecambe v Plymouth (X) 4 points @ 3.40 Totesport...2 - 2 Won :) Conf. Barrow v Newport (X) 4 points @ 3.56 Pinnacle...3 - 1 Lost :( Conf. Ebbsfleet v Lincoln (X) 4 points @ 3.63 Pinnacle...2 - 3 Lost :( Conf. York v Forest Green (X) 4 points @ 3.75 Spreadex...1 - 0 Lost :( 2 from 5 this week, meaning a profitable week and a profitable month. The thread also returns to profit, but nowhere near enough to get excited about. If the performance this season had been as good as I'd hoped for, I would now call it quits for the season (May is usually a poor month for my system), however I might as well keep going until the bitter end, there won't be that many more bets anyway...There are currently 5 selections next week, all in the lower divisions...Which have been particularly disappointing this year :wall Thank God the Conference has finished!! Table updated in the first post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted May 5, 2012 Author Share Posted May 5, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Bit late posting!...Five for today D1 Chesterfield v Brentford (X) 4 points @ 3.56 Pinnacle D1 Oldham v Carlisle (X) 4 points @ 3.60 Coral D2 Accrington v Crawley (X) 4 points @ 4.39 Pinnacle D2 Burton v Barnet (X) 4 points @ 3.60 Boylesports D2 Port Vale v Oxford (X) 4 points @ 3.50 Coral Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted May 6, 2012 Author Share Posted May 6, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II D1 Chesterfield v Brentford (X) 4 points @ 3.56 Pinnacle... 2 - 3 Lost :( D1 Oldham v Carlisle (X) 4 points @ 3.60 Coral... 2 - 1 Lost :( D2 Accrington v Crawley (X) 4 points @ 4.39 Pinnacle... 0 - 1 Lost :( D2 Burton v Barnet (X) 4 points @ 3.60 Boylesports... 1 - 2 Lost :( D2 Port Vale v Oxford (X) 4 points @ 3.50 Coral... 3 - 0 Lost :wall One for today Prem. Newcastle v Man City (X) 4 points @ 4.33 Boylesports And one for tomorrow...Last bet of the season! Prem. Blackburn v Wigan (X) 4 points @ 3.50 Betinternet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted May 7, 2012 Author Share Posted May 7, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II Prem. Newcastle v Man City (X) 4 points @ 4.33 Boylesports... 0 - 2 Lost :( And one for tomorrow...Last bet of the season!Prem. Blackburn v Wigan (X) 4 points @ 3.50 Betinternet... 0 - 1 Lost :( A pretty awful last week, (as I suspected, see post 172)...seven bets and seven losers! After 231 bets, the thread finishes in the red :$ I've updated the table in the first post, and will probably do a short summing up tomorrow before closing the thread. ttfn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted May 17, 2012 Author Share Posted May 17, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Pt. II So the season is over, and for my thread at least, it concludes in the red. Everything went pretty much as expected...Apart from not actually showing a bloody profit! lol. Looking at the monthly breakdown for the season: May was awful, (but I kind of expected that, too many matches where there is a lot or nothing at stake). More serious was the performance in both September and February...Not really sure why, but I suspect the transfer window must make a bit of a difference...In the previous 5 seasons, the worst performing months were also May, February and September! and in the same order...Spooky January was unexpectedly disappointing, with only 24% winners, when in the previous 5 years it had actually been the best performing month at over 40%, (I suspect this is partly as a result of there usually being more fixtures postponed in the lower divisions, where my strike rate is usually not as good anyway) I only wish that there were 3 Decembers each year! 6 winners from only 15 bets :) In terms of Divisional performance: Prem:...36.00% correct...26.64 points profit Cham:..30.91% correct...24.20 points profit D1.......28.07% correct....0.36 points profit D2.......25.00% correct...20.52 points loss Conf....19.00% correct...54.64 points loss Bit of a pattern there don't you think? The Prem/Championship pretty much as I expected, D2 and the Conference are usually profitable, but bit me on the arse in a big way this year, while D1 was actually profitable (just) this season..a pleasant surprise. The number of bets was pretty much what I expected, and I even managed to improve on my predicted average S/P (3.57). The Bookmakers: I was pretty careful about which bookmakers I used (rated B- or better on one of the review sites), and only accepted the free bets if I was happy with the t's and c's...Generally I was only interested in "matched bets", finding the rollover conditions too restrictive, given that most of the bookmakers offering them tend to have such skinny odds that any cash benefit is outweighed by the poor odds taken trying to roll your bank over up to TWELVE times! During the season, I used 14 different bookmakers, winning with some, losing with others, (and availing myself of £273.00 in free bets) ...To a man ALL of them were completely fair minded AND decent, and in one case, when I only got a £10 bonus, instead of the promised £20, I phoned up and politely asked about it...Jobs a good 'un...£20 credited in addition to the original £10!! (step forward Skybet). You could argue that if I had won consistently, I might not have had such a positive experience, but I suspect most of them love people betting on the draw, (Unless it's Machine and his "AI" thread...PHENOMENAL performance). What have I learned from my betting this year? Betting live and with real money is MUCH more difficult than back-testing would have you believe. When back-testing, a run of 10 or even 20 losers means nothing...You already know that at the end of the season you're going to be sitting on a profit, so everything is rosy. Live, and after only 12 losing bets, with no guarantee of a profit at the end of the season, and even if your bank is still nearer to 100% than 50%...Let's just say that you find muscles in your backside that you never knew you had! It's also quite daunting posting bets on here, especially when they're not going in. I think pretty much anybody who read my thread wouldn't actually hold me accountable for any losers they chose to back on my "recommendation", but nonetheless, it is still a daunting responsibility. To all the regular posters giving tips on Punters Lounge through thick and thin, and over many seasons I can only admire your patience and fortitude! (you all know who you are) Trying to get the very best odds, while also juggling free bets and trying to improve the system for the next year is very, very time consuming. I would imagine that the gross profit of £222.15 I managed to achieve works out at less than £1 an hour! Which in itself is pretty bad...Until you realise that it actually represents a nett loss of about £50 after taking away the free bets :$:$:$ Any comments on the performance (or lack of), or indeed my reasoning behind this years results would be most welcome...I think in the last 80 odd posts I've made, I have only received one reply. (The perils of a system that is only breaking even/losing I suppose)! Anyway, as Arnie once said "I'll be back" next season with some minor revisions that look really promising, (as back-testing always does! lol). I also suspect that I will be dropping the English lower divisions, and replacing them with some other leagues across Europe...France and Scotland look very good, while fairly predictably, (to me at least), Italy looks terrible, Spain isn't too hot, and I'm not convinced by Germany either. Currently about 200 bets per season...I might follow Machines "AI" selections in the lower English divisions next season if he posts them again. I'll need all the help I can get...There aren't too many free bets left for me next year :( Roll on 2012/2013 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxinexile Posted May 17, 2012 Share Posted May 17, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Summing up Looking at your Start Bank and End Bank figures, I think you've done a really good job on this system. If I'd spent a season betting on Draws only, I'd be proud of those final figures. So, you end with around 75% of your Start Bank and to me that is a success. My way of looking at it is very much the "glass half-full" view. If that was my Bank I'd be thinking I only need to add 25% next season to bring it back to its original figure, thus saving myself 75%. Any profit is always great, but you have still saved yourself money on your future Bank. (At least that's how I see it!) I really do feel that predicting the outcome of the majority of football matches is very, very difficult and so for you to focus on the most difficult of the three outcomes and show figures like you have over a whole season ... well, full respect in my eyes! Good luck for next season, I'll be keeping an eye out for your thread! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted May 19, 2012 Author Share Posted May 19, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Summing up Looking at your Start Bank and End Bank figures, I think you've done a really good job on this system. If I'd spent a season betting on Draws only, I'd be proud of those final figures. So, you end with around 75% of your Start Bank and to me that is a success. My way of looking at it is very much the "glass half-full" view. If that was my Bank I'd be thinking I only need to add 25% next season to bring it back to its original figure, thus saving myself 75%. Any profit is always great, but you have still saved yourself money on your future Bank. (At least that's how I see it!) I really do feel that predicting the outcome of the majority of football matches is very, very difficult and so for you to focus on the most difficult of the three outcomes and show figures like you have over a whole season ... well, full respect in my eyes! Good luck for next season, I'll be keeping an eye out for your thread! :clap Many thanks for your kind words foxinexile. I'm not sure that I can class last season as a success for my system, but I like your "glass half full" view regarding the bank! I wish you success with your own thread, especially as you seem to be continuing through the summer. I feel in need of a rest, so I'm going to take a break from betting in June, before refining my system in July in time for the start of next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted May 30, 2012 Author Share Posted May 30, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Summing up Just testing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ratmouth Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Re: Draws for profit...Summing up Hi DAM, Interesting thread you have here. I spent quite a bit of time a few years ago looking at draws to find a long term profitable situation. All I do is trade nowadays but am still having the odd glance at various strategies. I don't know if you'd be interested and I haven't the time to look into it in depth, but I have noticed that there is usually a direct correlation between the 0-0 correct score odds and how low the X odds are but I have noticed what I think is an anomaly. Particularly in high scoring leagues, for example the dutch leagues, you will occasionally find 0-0 correct score odds at 19.0 and more but the X odds sometimes dip below 3.5 which would normally go hand in hand with 0-0 correct score odds of around 10.0. Basically (and I haven't back tested this) I assume this would make the draw a value lay. I understand these games can easily end up 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3 etc but as soon as the first goal goes in where there isn't a massive favourite (X odds of circa 3.5 would indicate no massive favourite) the X odds drift significantly to say on average 4.5 or more. I guess what I'm saying is that maybe you could look into the opposite of this and look for draw odds in the correct score market that are quite low but in the 1X2 market the X odds are relatively high. I often find good trading opportunities this way. You could maybe use this as an extra filter to hone your draw tips to maximise long term profits. To aviod confusion I only use Betfair hence the trading aspect but just wondered if you thought this would be any use. Cheers, Ratmouth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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