Laying 0-1 at Half Time + Stats - Opinions please

[themaverick]

Hi Guys, I have been looking at quite a few 'lay the half-time score' threads across the web. I have started looking at laying 0-1 at half-time. I need to go back more seasons than last season but thought I would throw this out there early. Does anyone know what the average odds would be @ half -time and at 60 minutes for 0-1. Based on the figures below is there money to be made ? Premier League 1st half 0-1= 55 2nd half 0-0 = 5 = 1 in 11 games Championship 1st half 0-1= 100 2nd half 0-0 = 18 = 1 in 5.55 games Divison 1 1st half 0-1= 97 2nd half 0-0 = 21 = 1 in 4.62

[froment]

Re: Laying 0-1 at Half Time + Stats - Opinions please I don't exactly get your idea...

I have been looking at quite a few 'lay the half-time score'

Does anyone know what the average odds would be @ half -time and at 60 minutes for 0-1.

If you "lay half time score", that score does not exist anymore in 60 minute, so these two sentences are contradictory? :unsure Anyway, I have never traded "half time score", so cannot comment it; as for FT score 0-1, here are my two pences. Odds for that scoreline keep dropping after match kicks-off (of course, as long as there is no goal); they drop in pretty linear shape throughout entire first half, and at half time they are some 30 to 50 % lower than initial odds. The more leveled teams are, the lower drop will be, those 30%; tipical 0-1 odds for such a match (home win odds around 2.50 mark) are between 8 to 10, and if HT is 0-0, they will drop to 5 to 6. If home team is a clear favourite (home win odds 1.50 or less), and match is still 0-0 at HT, then 0-1 odds may be more than halved by half time - usual odds for 0-1 in that case are between 20 and 30, and by half time it may drop to as low as 10 to 15. These odds will continue dropping, but very little and for a very short period of time in second half, maybe only several minutes, and then will fluctuate inside several ticks range for about 5 to 10 minutes; after that, they will change the trend and start rising; they will reach initial level from kick-off at around 75 minute, and, of course, keep rising by the end of the match. In 60 minute, they should be some 20% lower than odds at kick-off. That was in case match finishes 0-0. If home team scores first goal, then this scoreline makes no further sense for betting/trading. If away team scores first goal, then these odds "inherit" odds from scoreline 0-0; i.e., odds for 0-1 immediately after goal will be the same as odds for 0-0 immediately before goal. Exception is if that goal was scored early in the match, say before 20 -25 minute; in that case, odds will be higher than 0-0 odds were before goal, because market evaluates that, since away team scored early, there are more chances for reaction of home team and another goal. In that case, odds of 0-1 will be between odds for 0-0 and 0-1 before goal. For example, in 15 minute, 0-0 odds were 8.00 and 0-1 odds 10.00; after goal for 0-1, odds for that score are likely to be 9.50; however, if in 40 minute odds for 0-0 are 4.50, and odds for 0-1 are 7.00, if goal is scored for 0-1, then odds for 0-1 after the goal will be around 4.50. In both cases, odds will continue dropping after goal, untill the end of the match, or untill another goal is scored, in which case this scoreline again makes no sense. In 60 minute, they should be around 3.00. These odds are for "average" scoring league, likes of England, Sweden; in high scoring leagues, like Netherlands, Switzerland, etc., they are higher (they may be even double higher than those I mentioned), and in low scoring leagues, like Greece, France, etc., they are lower. I didn't follow odds movement if away team is clear favourite, so cannot tell you its behaviour in that case, but I believe it should be similar to this described above.

[themaverick]

Re: Laying 0-1 at Half Time + Stats - Opinions please Sorry I was typing in a hurry. In a nutshell for the 3 leagues shown would laying the current scoreline when it's 0-1 @ half-time show profit? Premier League 1st half 0-1= 55 games were 0-1 @ HT 2nd half 0-0 = 5 games were STILL 0-1@ FT = 1 in 11 games finished 0-1. Championship 1st half 0-1= 100 games were 0-1 @ HT 2nd half 0-0 = 18 games were STILL 0-1 @ FT = 1 in 5.55 games finished 0-1. Divison 1 1st half 0-1= 97 games were 0-1 @ HT 2nd half 0-0 = 21 games were STILL 0-1 @ FT = 1 in 4.62 games finished 0-1.

[froment]

Re: Laying 0-1 at Half Time + Stats - Opinions please Aha, now I got it... :) With above stats, I'm sure that Premier league would show profit at level stakes, and Division 1 would show loss. I'm inclined to think that Championship would also show tiny loss, but it's impossible to tell without knowing odds in those 18 losing games - as I explained, their range is far too big at HT, somewhere between 5 and 15, to make any evaluation. Edit - and yes, let me repeat: all my assumptions were made for cases where teams were level, or home team was favourite; it's logical to think that some of those 18 matches were ones where away team was favourite, in which case 0-1 odds at HT were much lower, maybe as low as evens. That means, Championship would show profit, and Division 1 smaller loss or also profit; once again, you need odds to correctly evaluate this situation!

[themaverick]

Re: Laying 0-1 at Half Time + Stats - Opinions please Thanks Froment - feel bad that you typed so much in your first reponse after my initial rambling post - guess i smell a glory hunt coming on :cheers

[froment]

Re: Laying 0-1 at Half Time + Stats - Opinions please

Thanks Froment - feel bad that you typed so much in your first reponse after my initial rambling post

:lol Don't worry, no problems! You welcome! :ok

[aderuk]

Re: Laying 0-1 at Half Time + Stats - Opinions please Do you know what the odds for total goals u1.5 if a team is winning 0-1 at half time.as the div 1 shows 1 in 4.6 remains the same. Only reason i ask is i have started doing dutch four folds over 2.5 goals(smallish stakes).Had 5 four folds out of 8 bets over the last 2 weeks,one of the bets i was waiting on was a game which was played the following day.Anyway the bet came in but as the second goal went in at the end of the first half the under 2.5 goal price was 12/1 which i took as a cover bet. So if Div 1, under 1.5 goals when a team is 0-1 at HT offers anything like the dutch odds you could be onto a winner. Hope this makes sense .