Laying 0-1 at Half Time + Stats - Opinions please

[themaverick]

Hi Guys, I have been looking at quite a few 'lay the half-time score' threads across the web. I have started looking at laying 0-1 at half-time. I need to go back more seasons than last season but thought I would throw this out there early. Does anyone know what the average odds would be @ half -time and at 60 minutes for 0-1. Based on the figures below is there money to be made ? Premier League 1st half 0-1= 55 2nd half 0-0 = 5 = 1 in 11 games Championship 1st half 0-1= 100 2nd half 0-0 = 18 = 1 in 5.55 games Divison 1 1st half 0-1= 97 2nd half 0-0 = 21 = 1 in 4.62

[froment]

Re: Laying 0-1 at Half Time + Stats - Opinions please I don't exactly get your idea...

I have been looking at quite a few 'lay the half-time score'

Does anyone know what the average odds would be @ half -time and at 60 minutes for 0-1.

If you "lay half time score", that score does not exist anymore in 60 minute, so these two sentences are contradictory? :unsure Anyway, I have never traded "half time score", so cannot comment it; as for FT score 0-1, here are my two pences. Odds for that scoreline keep dropping after match kicks-off (of course, as long as there is no goal); they drop in pretty linear shape throughout entire first half, and at half time they are some 30 to 50 % lower than initial odds. The more leveled teams are, the lower drop will be, those 30%; tipical 0-1 odds for such a match (home win odds around 2.50 mark) are between 8 to 10, and if HT is 0-0, they will drop to 5 to 6. If home team is a clear favourite (home win odds 1.50 or less), and match is still 0-0 at HT, then 0-1 odds may be more than halved by half time - usual odds for 0-1 in that case are between 20 and 30, and by half time it may drop to as low as 10 to 15. These odds will continue dropping, but very little and for a very short period of time in second half, maybe only several minutes, and then will fluctuate inside several ticks range for about 5 to 10 minutes; after that, they will change the trend and start rising; they will reach initial level from kick-off at around 75 minute, and, of course, keep rising by the end of the match. In 60 minute, they should be some 20% lower than odds at kick-off. That was in case match finishes 0-0. If home team scores first goal, then this scoreline makes no further sense for betting/trading. If away team scores first goal, then these odds "inherit" odds from scoreline 0-0; i.e., odds for 0-1 immediately after goal will be the same as odds for 0-0 immediately before goal. Exception is if that goal was scored early in the match, say before 20 -25 minute; in that case, odds will be higher than 0-0 odds were before goal, because market evaluates that, since away team scored early, there are more chances for reaction of home team and another goal. In that case, odds of 0-1 will be between odds for 0-0 and 0-1 before goal. For example, in 15 minute, 0-0 odds were 8.00 and 0-1 odds 10.00; after goal for 0-1, odds for that score are likely to be 9.50; however, if in 40 minute odds for 0-0 are 4.50, and odds for 0-1 are 7.00, if goal is scored for 0-1, then odds for 0-1 after the goal will be around 4.50. In both cases, odds will continue dropping after goal, untill the end of the match, or untill another goal is scored, in which case this scoreline again makes no sense. In 60 minute, they should be around 3.00. These odds are for "average" scoring league, likes of England, Sweden; in high scoring leagues, like Netherlands, Switzerland, etc., they are higher (they may be even double higher than those I mentioned), and in low scoring leagues, like Greece, France, etc., they are lower. I didn't follow odds movement if away team is clear favourite, so cannot tell you its behaviour in that case, but I believe it should be similar to this described above.