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Martingale - successfully

SportsInvestment

By SportsInvestment
in Glory Hunters

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DirtyVadah

DirtyVadah

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Re: Martingale - successfully

You realize that if you fail 6 consecutive times you fail' date=' right?[/quote'] I'm pretty sure he's thought that through. The point is to show that he can use Martingale. Tbf you'd have to be terribly unlucky to fail 6-7 times in a row in overs bets. Not saying it's impossible, far from it but his bets have seem pretty astute up until now. Which brings me to another question... SportsInvestement: Are your choice of picks based on some kind of system or simply research? Keep up the good work.
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SportsInvestment

SportsInvestment

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Re: Martingale - successfully Hey livebird and Vadah;) yes i know all that livebird...and i have to say i just said 50,000 for the forum....in real i have a bigger BR and use biggger stakes....so far a mod didnt reply to my post about the blog link so i am posting it here now and when its not allowed a mod should write to me i use there 1000EUR stakes. livebird...however..if you believe me or not...so far in 5 years..i never had a situation where i lost more than 5 bets in a row...and that is already special SO MY POINT HERE IS TO SAY !!! martingale in general is only profitable for bettors who would be in green number even without martingale !! really..otherwise it could be very very dangerous... and vadah....many dont believe me about this... but most of my bets just came from a good feeling when i see the 2 teams...believe it or not...i cant believe sometimes too when all people say its not possible...but really...i look at the teams a time...and then i already have a feeling...its just my talent i would say...works already for 5 years. ...cheers...all. i will answer every question if you have one edit : what i have to add...i always look for value odds...even i have a good feeling...but the odds seems not like value to me then i will not play them...in long term it would be not good.

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DM99

DM99

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Re: Martingale - successfully I can't hold back any longer and I feel it is my civic duty to post. I see a lot of potential hurt being caused here. Let's start at first principles: Expected return ($) = bet size ($) x mathematical edge The amount you win in the long term is based on your bet size and your edge. Your bet size is always a positive amount, so whether you win or lose in the long term comes down to whether or not you are betting when you have a mathematical advantage. If you don't have a mathematical advantage, then no staking system in the world will save you and you are far better off not betting at all. If you do have a mathematical advantage, then martingaling will dramatically increase your volatility and chance of going bankrupt. All that martingaling does is hide your expected win/loss amounts behind a wall of a much higher strike rate. It is possible that someone can ride the thin edge of probability for years and not get a losing streak, but the odds are on the same level as jumping off a skyscraper and walking away with minor injuries. There is a psychological bias towards thinking that luck is actually skill. Just because it has worked in the past does not mean in any way that it is a good method; unless you can conclusively prove that you have a positive expectancy you will fail, it will hurt a hell of a lot, and it will happen with a truly stunning speed. All readers are advised that, if a betting method operates on a system where you increase stakes after a loser, just walk away and don't give it a second thought. This is extremely valuable advice and one I had to learn personally. I now return you to your scheduled staking madness.

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SportsInvestment

SportsInvestment

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Re: Martingale - successfully

I can't hold back any longer and I feel it is my civic duty to post. I see a lot of potential hurt being caused here. Let's start at first principles: Expected return ($) = bet size ($) x mathematical edge The amount you win in the long term is based on your bet size and your edge. Your bet size is always a positive amount, so whether you win or lose in the long term comes down to whether or not you are betting when you have a mathematical advantage. If you don't have a mathematical advantage, then no staking system in the world will save you and you are far better off not betting at all. If you do have a mathematical advantage, then martingaling will dramatically increase your volatility and chance of going bankrupt. All that martingaling does is hide your expected win/loss amounts behind a wall of a much higher strike rate. It is possible that someone can ride the thin edge of probability for years and not get a losing streak, but the odds are on the same level as jumping off a skyscraper and walking away with minor injuries. There is a psychological bias towards thinking that luck is actually skill. Just because it has worked in the past does not mean in any way that it is a good method; unless you can conclusively prove that you have a positive expectancy you will fail, it will hurt a hell of a lot, and it will happen with a truly stunning speed. All readers are advised that, if a betting method operates on a system where you increase stakes after a loser, just walk away and don't give it a second thought. This is extremely valuable advice and one I had to learn personally. I now return you to your scheduled staking madness.
indeed ...interesting post. well i have to say for 99,9 % martingaling is not the right system for a sports bettor, its true. And i only do the martingale system because i can beat the market...I would beat the market without martingale too. and thats an important point for me cause i can beat the market with a "normal" staking plan too I can do the martingale too. if you can not beat the market NEVER start with martingale. It will make you broke yes
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DM99

DM99

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Re: Martingale - successfully

indeed ...interesting post. well i have to say for 99,9 % martingaling is not the right system for a sports bettor, its true. And i only do the martingale system because i can beat the market...I would beat the market without martingale too. and thats an important point for me cause i can beat the market with a "normal" staking plan too I can do the martingale too. if you can not beat the market NEVER start with martingale. It will make you broke yes
So long as you have an advantage, I wish you all the best. :ok
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DirtyVadah

DirtyVadah

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Re: Martingale - successfully

So long as you have an advantage' date=' I wish you all the best. :ok[/quote'] Forget Martingale. If SportsInvestment had bet 500 euro consistently without raising, he would be up 3205 euros. Now for most betting folk who can probably only afford 50 euros a bet, that's still 320 euros profit in ONE WEEK This is all about placing the right bets and gaining a mathematical edge which was talked about earlier. The fact that the picks are usually above evens helps a lot.
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SportsInvestment

SportsInvestment

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Re: Martingale - successfully MLB SF Giants - LA Dodgers over 5.5 - 2.11 stake: 4000EUR hey users maybe this will be my last bet here...but im not sure...well..i still have my blog and already another project about my martingale system in my mind and some ideas...so i will see what is my best move...but maye i will continue this blog too but continue 2 blogs and work on my investments and my wife :loon:rollin is not easy ...that is what i realized....so i will see wich is my best way see you soon..i hope ;)

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froment

froment

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Re: Martingale - successfully

so far a mod didnt reply to my post about the blog link so i am posting it here now and when its not allowed a mod should write to me
hey users maybe this will be my last bet here...but im not sure...well..i still have my blog and already another project about my martingale system in my mind and some ideas...
I for one didn't reply to your question about blog, because there is no strict rule when it comes to non-commercial sites; as you could see in http://forum.punterslounge.com/f2/punters-lounge-house-rules-41369/ , "Links to other websites may be removed at the sole discretion of the moderators team.". I thought there was no need for link to your blog, since it would contain the same selections as this thread, but in the same time I didn't want to spoil your thread which seemed to run smoothly, so I decided to let your link stand. I don't know for other mods, we haven't discussed this specific case, I suppose they had the same attitude. However, now it seems you want to abandon this thread, and redirect visitors to your blog only, which I don't consider as really acceptable, especially that you started it after this thread. So, I'm going to remove link to your blog, although that doesn't mean anything for this thread - feel free to continue your hunt here anytime you want! If you want to abandon this thread beacuse its format limits you, then you may try your strategy in Punters Lounge Tipster Competition.
SO MY POINT HERE IS TO SAY !!! martingale in general is only profitable for bettors who would be in green number even without martingale !! really..otherwise it could be very very dangerous...
Generally, I consider Martingale as useless strategy, but this is first time I am ready to agree with some statement supporting Martingale. If punter already has winning strategy, maybe Martingale can increase profits; but it cannot turn losing strategy into profitable one. Anyway, good luck with your bets! :ok
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ScottyXS

ScottyXS

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Re: Martingale - successfully Thats the next bet a loser. So are we to believe you have 8000 Euro in line for the next bet? And bearing in mind you stated that these stakes were actually only a smidgen of what you really have on? I believed that you might still be going after years doing this, if you placed a bet once a week or so. But you aren't, theres lots of bets each week. The chances of hitting 6 or 7 losers in a row isn't that low, and with the amounts of bets placed it really is only a matter of time- and that time frame is certainly not measured in years. Do you actually have your bets proofed anywhere, other than just making wild claims? Don't post a link, but PM me where I can see proof of these claims. If they are true then well done, and you seem to be a decent punter (with even stakes your well up), but martingaling doesn't work, not with these odds.

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