Paddy Mc Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Hi, I've recently become bemused with betting due to the fact that i am consistently losing out on 3/4/5 folds by 1 selection. I wouldn't call msyelf a big stake punter, usually placing £5/£10 per bet (i.e. treble/4 fold). I would say i usually bet on 4 or 5 folds, rarely less, rarely more as due to the stakes i use i feel the need to have those number of selections to make a decent return. I am sure there are/were guys on here who have suffered similar anguish, and would love some constructive advice on how to change my betting approach. I also feel i've lost the love and excitement of betting, how do i get this back? I'm mainly a footy punter and focus on win-draw-win, BTTS and +2.5 goal markets, would love to hear from someone similar on how they approach their betting in terms of selections, stakes etc. Thanks for any feedback Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods I've recently become bemused with betting due to the fact that i am consistently losing out on 3/4/5 folds by 1 selection. Why don't you simply skip that 1 selection then, eh?! ;) I'm joking, sorry... but in the same time, it's not necessarily a joke! You seem to have constant pattern of "being so close", but you miss that bit to win your slip. For me, that means it's time to change the strategy and way you place your bets, especially since you "lost the love and excitement of betting" - if those two are missing, you probably accept betting as a burden rather than exciting battle with bookies and players on the pitch, and situation will only aggravate. "i am consistently losing out on 3/4/5 folds by 1 selection." means that you have a consistent strike rate of about 70 to 80%. So, I were you, I would collect all my losing slips, and back-test all matches as single bets; if average odds of your matches are 1.40 or higher, at that strike rate, single bets should show decent profit, and therefore your way to proceed. We recently had an interesting discussion of singles vs. accas, which you might find interesting: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/accumulators-superior-singles-121069/ Your example shows that, despite favorable theory, big accas do not really work in practice; if experiment with singles is very successful, you might try back-testing, or real testing with small stakes using doubles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aderuk Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Singles with a staking plan i find is the best way to go.It maybe a slower way to build up a profit (odds depending)and a larger outlay but you can afford to have a few losses as long as you have a few winners.Maybe take a look at the accy bets you have lost and work out your returns if you had done them in singles.The last 3 weekends i have had 33 singles with varying stakes 15 winners 18 losers but am still up £27 not massive amounts but had i done them in trebles ,fourfolds etc at £10 each i would more than likely be minus by now. Most people have been there the odd 90+ minute goal changes your bet from a winner to a loser. I had a 5 timer only for £1 on italian seria 2 for a bit of fun towards the end of last season ,5 draws and yes four ended draws the last one was into injury time and drawing and then came the 94th minute winner . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddy Mc Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Thanks for reponse guys. I suppose one of my problems is the staking plan if i was going to do singles. As i'm a small enough punter (i assume, based on £5/£10 per bet) i'm probably going to have to heavily increase my outlay per single bet to make singles worthwhile. If i decided to start with a bank, where do you store this bank as you don't want to limit yourself to one bookmaker do you? Froment, how do you approach your bets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Make a plan. Step 1: Make sure you attemt to bet value, as Froment pointed out. If Yes, you bet value, go to step 2. If No, you have to improve on your selections. Step 2: Find a system. I suggest not to be greedy. I personal bet singles. If thats to slow consider a permutation system with low variance. Fx high odds, 2/10, low odds 3/5. Step 3: Find a staking plan. I bet Kelly. Stay away from all kinds of martinginale. Consider flat betting. Step 4: Back to Step 1 and improve method to find value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods I suppose one of my problems is the staking plan if i was going to do singles. As i'm a small enough punter (i assume, based on £5/£10 per bet) i'm probably going to have to heavily increase my outlay per single bet to make singles worthwhile. Hmmmmmmm... Let's assume you put in average 1 slip with 4 bets daily, five days a week, with stake of 7.5 units. If you consistently lose because of 1 match, that means loss of about 150 units monthly. I believe there have been some winning slips, but if you were satisfied with their frequency, this thread wouldn't exist, would it? So I'd disregard them... In total, it was about 80 matches monthly, so without increasing your bank, your stake per single bet at level stakes would be somewhat less than 2 GBP, and with 10% yield, you'd earn some 15 units a month. It indeed is not profit to be envy about, but I'd rather win 15, than lose 150, don't you agree? ;) So, in my opinion, gross amount of profit is not primary issue at the moment; first you need to find a strategy that will turn your losses into any profit (I mean, profit of any size, even tiny one) at level stakes (since I'd say you use level stakes at the moment), and once you find it, you can then revise your staking plan or increase stakes. I see Aderuk advises singles as well, and number of members, including me, in other thread I mentioned in previous post also emphasize advantages of singles over accas, so I'd say things cannot get much worse for you if you try singles, can they? If you have your losing slips, then you can find out very easily and without additional funds if singles would be more profitable for you! Froment, how do you approach your bets? At the moment, I'm dabbling with this: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f19/laying-longshots-118707/ I have used that staking plan for a couple of years now, I think, although in reality not so aggressive - 20% of bank is suicidal, I usually go with 5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods I was in the same boat. Found betting on accumulators a mundane and frustrating task. As the mug punter I was, I was always looking for the "big win" from my small stakes. That is exactly the sort of method that makes a bookmaker rich. I agree with the above comments. Find value, and bet as singles. (see my thread here http://forum.punterslounge.com/f21/minor-league-predictions-119880/). I'm currently using flat stakes, but may well back test the selections against Kelly criteria soon. Admittedly I haven't financially backed all the picks but I am now and the love for betting soon returns when you start seeing gradual profits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aderuk Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Not sure if there is a name for the way i stake (must be i suppose) but i mainly use bet 365. Once i have selected my singles for the weekend rather than putting say £10 single win in the stake box i will put £10 in the to win box and then let the odds work out my stakes . Hope that makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Make a plan. Step 1: Make sure you attemt to bet value, as Froment pointed out. If Yes, go to step 2. If No, you have to improve on your selections. Step 2: Find a system. I suggest not to be greedy. I personal bet singles. If thats to slow consider a permutation system with low variance. Fx high odds, 2/10, low odds 3/5. Step 3: Find a staking plan. I bet Kelly. Stay away from all kinds of marginale. Consider flat betting. Step 4: Back to Step 1 and improve method to find value. Great advice. I suggest betting singles until you are happy that you have found a winning formula. If you lose at singles, betting multiples will magnify your losses. If you manage to win, then it will the reverse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trips Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Never place bets like Lucky 15 or Lucky 31s etc.but i gave this some thought years ago seeing friends in work regularly place bets like this.. I think the bet you choose depends on the prices of your selections. eg If you are backing shorter odds,say anything from 11/10- 7/2, you may as well leave out the doubles in these combination bets.what's the point of placing extra 10 bets for the doubles if you don't even get your stake back when 1 double wins, I would save the money and just place a combination trebles and accumulators when backing small priced selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flower567 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods hi m8, in your opening post you mention that you mostly betting on 1x2, btts and over 2,5 - you need to concentrate on 1 market - i had the same problem by betting on overs and unders, 1x2, double chance etc - today i am only going for "over 2,5 Goals" there are plenty of games during the weekends which will end with 3 or more goals - the problem (as usual) is to find these bloody games. so you need to have a selection process to find these games - could be home games only, attacking teams, weak away teams and so on. late today or tomorrow i will continue my thread " the ultimative under/over 2,5 goals" thread - had to wait until 5/6 games are played - this thread will be for trebles only and together with a staking plan to follow I hope to be sucessful come may. As I said: concentrate on 1 market only - have a plan and stick to it - if you are not sure yet then do "paper betting " until you see some result - be it positive or negativ - you can then make yr decision to follow yr plan by using small stakes - the only thing that you should not do is "being greedy" - if you end up by the end of the season with a profit then you can be satisfied because " a profit is a profit" Good luck:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profit Prophet Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Paddy, Firstly, i would say you've made a big step in your future success by going back to basics. We've all (most) been there and become disillusioned and frustrated. I'd say most punters have a season or two where in effect they pay to learn. This is my fifth season betting, season one -16% season two +4.5% season three -8% ( got over confident) season four + 28% seson five + 14% (so far) It took me three seasons to actually take it seriously even when i thought i was doing so before. Few things i've learnt : Main advantage we have over the bookie is the amount of odds they have to draw up. Search for value and be disciplined with this. Bookies make 5-15% on average. Take that as a lesson in how the market works. Trying to win 10 x your money over a season is never going to happen. In play betting (football and tennis) is a big advantage for us punters. If you do your numbers, you can turn those no value bets into huge value bets. For example i took Murray at 2.90 to beat Haase last week when 2-0 sets down. Or say, we all know Arsenal (of old) struggled at home and often won games 70+ min into the match. The start odds of 1.30-1.40 will be 1.80-2.10 around the 70th-75th min mark. Don't withdraw profit every week/month (spend more than withdraw). I pay myself at xmas and at season end (may) and then after summer international tourneys if there on. Don't stick to singles only, be flexible in your approach. There is no set way, sometimes a double is the way to go and other times singles only. Never do more than trebles. If unsure about a bet, input it in rejected bets spreadsheet and keep track. It's suprising how pleasing it is to win on saturday and also see the ones you reasoned through but rejected lose. Don't get into the 'but it could win' mentality, i may regret it'. If you reject a bet and it wins and this consistently happens then you'll eventually learn from them and pick them in the future. Lastly, abit about my personal bets. Over a weekend i usually find i have a shortlist of 15-25 bets. I get this down to about 6-10. I'll rarely have more than 3-4 'A*' bets. Those A star bets i go in bigger on the singles and also do the doubles/trebles. I then have a bunch of 'B' bets. I go in at half stakes of A bets, on the singles,doubles,trebles. Then the C bets, if i have any, i often reject them for various reasons but if i still see value i'll go half stakes of b bets, on the singles,doubles,trebles. Everyone has there own methods and ideas, but i'm sure there's at least a few bits of info/advise you'll find useful in my write up. Good luck for the weekend and season Fig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alessan Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Hi there... I like the stuff Prophet wrote up, but there's no sure way... There is a major probability of not making any profit betting on 15 pairs accumulators and trying to make a 1000€ with a 1€ bet. Personally, I don't rate myself as a good punter, during last two months my rate of success is 60% (127 of 210 winning picks), but I managed to find some way of making money, that works for me... First thing - be real. I find a lot of great tips here at PL, and I'm using them to cash in on some sweet value bets. Second thing - don't be bias. I don't play singles. Usually my ticket is a "3/4, 4/4" thing with small and medium prices on them. Not to brag, but I've increased my bank from 100 units to 700 units in these two months (remember, I win only 60% of picks, which seems really lame to me). I found that everybody have a "I always lose ticket because of one pick" story. So I've turned it to my "advantage". Whenever I miss one pick - I make some small profit, and it's OK. When I get all four "ducks in a row" - I make good profit, of course, playing some short priced favourites alongside a couple of good value bets... "Don't do more then trebles", "Never do singles", and so on are advices from someones personal expirience, and they doesn't have to apply to you. Just think about it - if there WAS a perfect betting solution, a perfect formula - don't you think we'd be rich, and bookies broke? :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddy Mc Posted September 8, 2011 Author Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Thanks guys, i'm really appreciating all the feedback and am going to use it hopefully to my advantage. Do you guys have banks? If so, do you split it across bookmakers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Thanks guys' date=' i'm really appreciating all the feedback and am going to use it hopefully to my advantage. Do you guys have banks? If so, do you split it across bookmakers?[/quote'] IMO having several accounts is a good options if your stakes are large. Let's say up to 100 pounds. So if for example one bookie is offering 1.80 and another one 2.00 for the same bet you will win extra 20.00 pounds with another bookie. However if your maximum stake is 10 pounds I don't believe it is worth having many bookmakers. As for the betting plan I try to keep it simple and use small stakes since I am still learning and lose more than I win. My stakes range from 1 to 5 euros. If I am really confident about any given selections I will bet 5 euros if not 1. Occasionally I do doubles and very rarely trebles. Another good option is to pick many selections let's say 5-6 and then make 4 folds out of them so even if 1 selection let's you down you will still make a profit. However, when placing these types of bet try to pick selections priced at least @ 2.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Thanks guys' date=' i'm really appreciating all the feedback and am going to use it hopefully to my advantage. Do you guys have banks? If so, do you split it across bookmakers?[/quote'] I have had 4 accounts, but is now sticking with Betfair. I will rather concentrate only on finding good value,than concern myself of getting the absolut best odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods I have had 4 accounts, but is now sticking with Betfair. I will rather concentrate only on finding good value,than concern myself of getting the absolut best odds. Isn't that a contradiction :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Isn't that a contradiction :unsure No not realy, when I have estimated win percentage and found value, I buy at Betfair if the price is good or I lay at a odds I find good and realistic to be sold and sometimes I wait till before kick off. Sometimes I buy odds to low, sometimes I sell odds to high and sometimes I could have bought at a better odds elsewhere. But at the end of the day, the prices I get on Betfair is very competitive and I dont bother if I miss a better odds on another bookie. I do try to learn from the times I buy to low or sell to high, so it is not that I dont care about the price, just that I rather will use my time estimating odds and finding value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods I will rather concentrate only on finding good value,than concern myself of getting the absolut best odds. You couldnt make it up could you :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods You couldnt make it up could you :rollin Make what up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Make what up? Do you not see how finding the best odds is part of finding true value? To say you look for value and then ignore the best odds available is a contradictory statement, and I will assume for the benefit of doubt that there has been something lost in translation :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inchicore_saint Posted September 8, 2011 Share Posted September 8, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods At the moment Im mostly betting on singles odds of 1.50 or more and then the odd double or treble, not bad so far but early days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Do you not see how finding the best odds is part of finding true value? To say you look for value and then ignore the best odds available is a contradictory statement' date=' and I will assume for the benefit of doubt that there has been something lost in translation :unsure[/quote'] I dont see the contradiction. Value is value, whether the taken odds x estimated probability, end up in a 5% or 6% value. An since I only bet value, the taken odds only affect the profit. Which ofcourse also is important. My reasoning is. Estimating probabilities takes time, finding the value takes time, and placing bets takes time. Betting is my hobby, and I also want time to improve my system, develop new approaches and systems, discuss on forums and improve on backing and laying (at best prices) value bets on Betfair. These priorities I think, in the end, will give a better profit (I cant prove that) than always seeking the best odds (often marginal) at several bookies A problem with always seeking the best odds, is that you often will find it at an offshore/outside EU bookie (Fx Pinnacle have great odds). That mean tax and I dont want to concern myself cheating. Plus, I really dont want to bother myself (fly *******, in danish) for marginals. These priorities makes me satisfied and happy, and that is bonus value :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddy Mc Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Do you guys have a bank you work from? If so, do you allocate it across a number of bookmaker accounts or keep it in one account? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fearthainn Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Re: Advice On My Betting Methods Hi there... I like the stuff Prophet wrote up, but there's no sure way... There is a major probability of not making any profit betting on 15 pairs accumulators and trying to make a 1000€ with a 1€ bet. Personally, I don't rate myself as a good punter, during last two months my rate of success is 60% (127 of 210 winning picks), but I managed to find some way of making money, that works for me... First thing - be real. I find a lot of great tips here at PL, and I'm using them to cash in on some sweet value bets. Second thing - don't be bias. I don't play singles. Usually my ticket is a "3/4, 4/4" thing with small and medium prices on them. Not to brag, but I've increased my bank from 100 units to 700 units in these two months (remember, I win only 60% of picks, which seems really lame to me). I found that everybody have a "I always lose ticket because of one pick" story. So I've turned it to my "advantage". Whenever I miss one pick - I make some small profit, and it's OK. When I get all four "ducks in a row" - I make good profit, of course, playing some short priced favourites alongside a couple of good value bets... "Don't do more then trebles", "Never do singles", and so on are advices from someones personal expirience, and they doesn't have to apply to you. Just think about it - if there WAS a perfect betting solution, a perfect formula - don't you think we'd be rich, and bookies broke? :) Good post. Do you ever use lucky 15s or patents? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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