RocknRolla Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 EuroBasket starts tomorrow in Lithuania, with Spain being great favs to win it all. Not value at all backing Spain outright at around 1,80 but hopefully we'll make some profit here in the next three weeks. Here's official tournament site http://www.eurobasket2011.com/en/default.asp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania Wednesday 31 August 2011 Home Away BPP Serbia v Italy (13:15 BST) 1.41 3.6 98.54 % Spain v Poland (13:15 BST) 1.03 30 100.42 % Belgium v Georgia (13:30 BST) 2.57 1.66 98.91 % Montenegro v FYR Macedonia (13:30 BST) 1.4 3.5 100.00 % France v Latvia (15:45 BST) 1.04 17 102.04 % Turkey v Portugal (15:45 BST) 1.07 12.5 101.34 % Greece v Bosnia and Herzegovina (16:00 BST) 1.15 9.9 97.06 % Slovenia v Bulgaria (16:00 BST) 1.07 12 101.79 % Croatia v Finland (19:00 BST) 1.1 10.5 100.43 % Germany v Israel (19:00 BST) 1.36 3.75 100.00 % Lithuania v Great Britain (19:00 BST) 1.1 10.5 100.43 % Russia v Ukraine (19:00 BST) 1.08 12 100.64 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania Here are my predictions for the first day, Good luck to all! : Belgium vs Georgia : Georgia to win I've watched Belgium a couple of times and I think it is safe to say that the only game they get a win is against Ukraine. Georgia is a much better team and they are my favourites to finish 3rd here. This game will be a "target game" for both teams that's why I'm not going to take georgia with handicap but I really think there is a huge quality difference. Odds around 1.70 for georgia win is good value that's my most trusted bet for the first day. France vs Latvia : France-9 to Win Half time Latvia is one of the weakest teams in the tournament as they haven't got their best players in their roster. France will be looking for a good start after their bad performance in the world cup, this is a tough group and Latvia won't be very competitive in this game as their main aim will be taking a surprise win against weaker teams to get a surprise 3rd place. I expect France to finish this game before half time so I'll go for France -9 HALF TIME bet. Greece v Bosnia and Herzegovina : Greece more than 77 points Greece has come to this tournament with a younger and new squad. Most of people not sure how Greek side will play without their usual commanders. In my opinion their lucky group draw will help this young players to develop confidence and they will be very successful in the tournament. I don't like long term bets so I pass it but Greece to finish top 3 is a great bet for those interested. Greece squad is full of talent, I expect them to be deadly from the 3 point range as always. Total point limits are too low for this game if you ask me weak Bosnia defence won't be able to keep Greeks under 77 pts. Greece to score more than 77 pts is my bet for this game but you can also go for the over 139 total points. Montenegro v FYR Macedonia : Macedonia +6 This game will be the main aim for both teams to take 3rd place in Group C. I expect a very competitive game that won't be decided until the last minutes. 6 points handicap is too much so I'll be going for a Macedonia +6 bet here and I always trust Bo McCalebb Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania my other bets for the first day are : Lithuania +86 points vs Great Britain as both teams love high tempo play and with Lithuania's home court advantage they will be scoring a lot against weak Great Britain defence. Serbia vs Italy Under 147.5 total points I think both teams will be relying on their defence for this game. I don't expect each team to score more than 70 here. Italy under 71 points is another good opportunity. Russia vs Ukraine Under 148.5 total points I expect another low scoring game from Russia. Limit is just too high for any Russia game if you ask me I think the main reason for that people believe Russia will simply destroy Ukraine. They might do so but they'll do it with their defence not offence. Everyone is sure that Russia is going to control the game and they have an excellent coach who is smart enough to know that pushing the tempo up will be in Ukraine's favour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania May have a try on Italy +6,5 as I think they are underrated here. Serbia aims for qualifying for the Olympics and they should achieve that as they have the quality, but this should be really tight opener against Italy. Italians with their nba stars in Belinelli, Gallinari and Bargnani in the team must go for a win in every match as this group is very balanced with France and Germany also fighting for one of the first three places. Serbs were struggling with injuries prior this championship and they may not be at their best, expect them to catch the rhythm as the matches go. Like to think that both teams will enter this opening match very cautious, just not to loose it, so +6,5 for Italians looks tempting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania Hcp line is now 5.5, took Italy +6.5 @ 1,9 (2/5) with my local :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania No joy for both of us on Serbia v Italy game, ror! Total of 148 pts must be frustrating for you, good calls on Georgia and Macedonia :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania hey mate! another frustrating result as greece managed only 76 points but I've also bet on italy under 71 and total point over 139 in greece game so I didn't lose much. Not a bad start for me considering it's the first day of the competition, the only shock so far is Latvia as I wouldn't expect them to score that many against France defence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania 3 early selection for tomorrow's games : Latvia vs Serbia : Latvia Under 69 points @1.85 Latvia won't have much time to rest after a tight game against France. They were on fire behind the 3 point line but I don't think this will happen against an excellent defensive team Serbia. Italy is one of the best offensive teams in the tournament but Serbian defence kept them under 71 points as I predicted, I don't think Latvia will have a chance either. Georgia vs Russia : Georgia +9.5 @1.91 I expect this to be a low scoring - tight game. I was expecting around +5.5 for Georgia, I don't think Russia has enough offensive quality to hammer Georgia here. Also they played a tough game while Georgia was very comfortable against Belgium. Turkey vs Great Britain : Great Britain under 68 @1.85 Turkey is a team that is living with its defence. They were able to rest most of their startes as they easily past Portugal and Great Britain have played a very tough game and up tempo game against Lithuania. GB only managed to score 69 points against Lithuania which is a high tempo team, Turkey will set pace a lot slower in this game so I don't expect GB to be able to score more than 60-62 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simao BVB Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania Montenegro (vs Bosnia and Herzegovina)+ Turkey -1.5 (vs GB) Double Montenegro should really overcome Bosnia in this match-up with two of ex-YU countries. Bosnia played really bad in the preparation games, while Montenegro played great in qualifications for this Eurobasket. Bosnia was a little better yesterday against Greece but i don't think that Greece were firing with all cylinders and i don't think that Greece have a squad which can go any further than QF in this years championship. Teletovic had really off game yesterday, which should improve today but nevertheless i believe that Montenegro will have enough to be the winner, cause i see big difference between these two teams under the rim, as Montenegro centers are far better than Bosnians. Bosnia has Kikanovic and really there is no replacement for him, while Montenegro with Pekovic, Vranes, even Dasic have a great tall line. Yesterday Bosnia had 10 rebounds less than Greece, while Montenegro had 11 rebounds more than Macedonia. I see great advantage for Montenegras here. The only thing that worries me a little bit is 23 turnovers made by Montenegro yesterday, but i think that they will reduce that today. What to say about Turkey - GB match, well GB can cope with Turkey only on forward positions, everywhere else i see a great advantage for Turkey. Great Britain really don't have any adequate cover for the starting line-up, Deng played the whole 40 minutes yesterday and should get a little bit tired. So a clear win for Turkey in my eyes Pick: Montenegro + Turkey -1.5 points double odds 1.86 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania My only bet for tomorrow will be for Lithuania - Turkey game. I think there is a BIG chance of profit as bookies get this game all wrong in my opinion. All my Selections will be full stakes and so I'm gonna risk 3x my usual stake in total for this game. First of all Turkey is great at the defensive end of the game and they set the tempo low. I know Lithuania will try to set a higher pace but I don't think they will be succeed as Turkey is a very disciplined defensive team, they take they job at the defensive end seriously in each game. so Lithuania to score less than 78 points is a WONDERFUL opportunity in my opinion. With that in mind total point limits are also set very high, most of the close games in this competition were under the total point limits before half time so First Half Total Points Under 74 is another very good opportunity. Even though they have the home court advantage, I don't believe Lithuania is a better team at least I don't believe they are as good as the odds reflect so Turkey +5.5 bet is another good choice. I honestly suggest everyone to have a bet on this game tomorrow because I think it is the best opportunity in this tournament so far. Good Luck all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania The competition is going well for me I hope there are some others making profit, even though this thread doesn't get much replies I'll keep sharing my predictions. My only bet for tomorrow will be in Finland-Bosnia game. I recommend mid/high stakes, Bosnia has been successful so far in the tournament getting a surprise win against Montenegro and playing good basketball against Greece. They are now 4th best offense in the tournament scoring 115 points per 100 position. Finland has no real motivation for this game or any chance in this group, both teams will be rested a day so I expect Bosnia to keep playing their good basketball here. They were in handicap in both first halves they play, I think Bosnia -3.5 HALF TIME is a good bet for this game. Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania Just wanna say I am watching even though I haven't commented, keep it coming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simao BVB Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania I personally will stay away from match Finland - Bosnia as Bosnia is maybe better team, but they have many ups and downs, while Finland played great with Croatia and if they repeat that performance this will be very open game. I simply don't trust Bosnia with this odds. Nevertheless great effort rorschachbetting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania good call there simao, first losing day for me hopefully I'll recover tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofdevils Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania The only bet for me tonight will be for Russia-Belgium match. Russia is a team that lacks a creative point guard yet shines with its tough defence and Kirilenko-Khyrapa duo. They intend to use the 24-second shot clock till the very end and play a very slow-tempo game. Meanwhile throughout the friendlies and the tournament Belgium has been one of the teams that suprised me most. Even though they got destroyed by Georgia at the first day, they were really good at defense against Bulgaria and lost only by 3. In a game of tough defences and slow attacks I don't see this match having more than 140 total points. I bet from Turkey and here the over/under odd is 141.5, so I don't really know about you guys but this is a definite under match for me :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zibbit Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania roschach have you been betting on basketball for a long time? I just wanna ask if you have felt a difference or researched a difference with the rule changes for last season....specifically the shot clock one, designed I guess to make it harder too slow the game down too much. I am myself ref in my own country but we don't take the rules up till this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania hi Zibbit, yes I have been betting for a couple of years now. Can't say I can provide you much stats on this one but as you know with the technology and sport knowledge developing physical levels of players in each sport is also developing rapidly each year. So I think players will no problem with the recent changes, NBA made them years ago to make this game faster and more entertaining. Maybe in lower leagues It might effect the game with the more distant 3 point line and everything but In the top divisions in europe still the key to win is Defence. In conclusion I don't believe these changes in europe made because the same reason in NBA. It was just a case of rules adapting players, making a game a bit harder to keep the same level of entertainment because of the better players now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofdevils Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania The only bet for me tonight will be for Russia-Belgium match. Russia is a team that lacks a creative point guard yet shines with its tough defence and Kirilenko-Khyrapa duo. They intend to use the 24-second shot clock till the very end and play a very slow-tempo game. Meanwhile throughout the friendlies and the tournament Belgium has been one of the teams that suprised me most. Even though they got destroyed by Georgia at the first day, they were really good at defense against Bulgaria and lost only by 3. In a game of tough defences and slow attacks I don't see this match having more than 140 total points. I bet from Turkey and here the over/under odd is 141.5, so I don't really know about you guys but this is a definite under match for me :) Phew! Close one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofdevils Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania For today's first games my favourite is the Israel-Latvia match. Both teams are filled with sharpshooters and have good scoring threats. Israel has been playing good in this tournament so far yet always played with the heavyweights of the group so far and i think this will be a game for them to show their strength. Israel is a better offensive team than Latvia and even though Latvia has the fan support Israel will be the winners of the match. Israel -2.50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania Today's Selections : (Sorry I don't have much time to write reviews) Poland-Turkey : Turkey -6.5 Half Time 10/10 Italy- France : Italy over 67 points 4/10 Italy- France : total points over 141 4/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sstari Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania Lithuania WINNER of Group A 3.05 @betcity 1/10 As we know Spain are favorites not only to win in the group but to win the whole Championship. On the other hand is Lithuania a solid team probably the only challenger that can get in the Spadrians way (respectfully) considering the advantage of the home court. But that isn't the main reason for this bet. The winner of todays match will decide the winner of the Group A. So even if Spain loses this match they'll be placed second with a point behind Lithuania, including Turkey/Poland to be the contesters proceeding into the next phase matching up with France Serbia Germany. So if this scenario happens it's to be expected Spain to win all matches in the second phase and finish first which is not the case with Lithuania. To conclude this post : I know my arguments aren't solid and this is more like a hunch but i like the odds and it's worth to try them on small stakes cus' Spain won't push to win or play their best players all the time, meanwhile it's very likely Lithuania to give everything they've got with great passion. IMO a safer bet would be Lithuania to beat Spain +5.5 handicap @ 1.9 cus' i think it's going to be a tight match. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania I don't think it's possible for Lithuania to beat Spain. 3.05 is a fair value for a Lithuania win there, without Petravicius Spain will just dominate and crush them inside. Keep in mind that we did not see the best of Spain yet as they weren't playing motivated against bad teams. Lithuania will try to push tempo up and win the game with 3 pointers but Spain is just too big for them. They haven't got any answer for spanish frontcourt. The only solid argument against a Spain here would be about their guards but that doesn't mean Lithuania have more chance than %20-25 to win this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spkutano Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania Macedonia vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Pick: 2 I watched Bosnia and Herzegovina yesterday against Croatia. And I must say they were brilliant. They won the game, but even more, they outplayed Croatia. Teletovic was the best player, he was unstoppable. And I don't see how Macedonian players will keep him. Gecevski is injured, he need some rest. On other side the captain Pero Antic can't stop Teletovic, maybe Samardziski. But there is another problem, Samardziski is poor in attack. Another problem for Macedonia is that the key players are very tired. Coach Marin Dokuzovski has a small roster. After four hard games the main players like Bo Mccalebb, Vlado Ilievski and Pero Antic are very tired. However, the key reason for my pick is fact that Bosnian players are full of confidence after yesterday win over Croatia. If they repeat such performance I don't see any chance for Macedonia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania After Great Britain beat Poland, Turkey will be very motivated against Spain. As I Have said before Turkey is playing great defensively, Don't take Poland game in account because refs were terrible there. I don't have much time before the game so this is a short preview I'm very confident in my bet will take it with x2 my usual stake Spain - Turkey : Spain under 83 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania Want to oppose our team as the main players should get a rest and Bosnia is in a must win situation and we are already through to the next round. Things in the group are very complicated after Croatia lost yesterday and they must win against Greece today whats unlikely to happen imo. If Croatia loose today they are out for sure and Bosnia is in the next round [with 0 pts] (if they loose tonight), [with 2pts] (if they win), if the later happens, Greece, Macedonia and Bosnia are going in to the next round with two pts each. Other scenario is if Croatia somehow manage to win and we win our match later, Greece with 0, Croatia with 2 and Macedonia with 4 pts are going in to the next round, and that would be great for us, but as I said I expect us not to go full strenght tonight and we may loose but, even if we loose we knock Greece out what would be even greater (for some political reasons) and our players will get a big credit for that. Was expecting a bigger hcp line but going to take this +3,5 for Bosnia. Bosnia +3,5 @ 1,90 (2/5) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rorschachbetting Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania hey lads wouldn't it be wiser to wait for greece game's score before betting bosnia? I mean if Greece wins there I don't think Macedonia will rest anyone and they will go full strenght to get another win to the next round. If they start second round with 6 points it'd be very easy for them to qualify. If Croatia wins I agree they will want to eliminate greece but it's a long shot imo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania ^^ yeah, I have my doubts there, but it'll be tough match however and the motivation will be on Bosnian side. We have the quality, but our roster is small and I was worried about our players fatigue against Finland yesterday, so can't see us going full strenght, even so we can't hammer Bosnia and the bet can win even if we win. Not much betting opportunities today :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fizruhas Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania Lithuania - Portugal | Lithuania -20.5 1.9@bet365 7/10! Well, after that discrrasefull performance yesterday, lithuania should overcome poor Portugal easily today. First of all they want to prove themselves that yesterday was that day that happens sometimes to every team. Of course Spain played some increadible basketball with 62 pts in the first half, tells a lot, with 10/16 3pts shooting. Portugal is out of the tournament and will play without pressure, like Lithuania too. Theese type of games almost imposible to predict how it will go?! Will Lithuania rest some main players and let th bench players to come in. even that happens i think Lithuania have good enough players to beat Portugal by 20 and more, especially at this point when they lost yesterday to Spain in 20 minutes, they want to prove for them and their fans that they're OK :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fizruhas Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Re: Basketball European Championship 2011 - Lithuania Macedonia - Bosnia & Hercegovina | Bosnia to win 2.4@bet365 5/10! Bosnia have named as an underdog here. Thats because bad eprformance in the begining of the tournament. Like Teletovic said, after that impressive los to Finland they gathered together at the hotel and tried to talk about what happened there and what they should do to win other 2 games. After that they overcome Croatia, and have all chances to advance to the next stage now. Like i see now Greece leading Croats 33:17 and that means is Croatia losses , then Bosnia has faith in theyr hands. They need only to win over Macedenia, which at this point i think they can, also check out the handycaps on Bosnia should go through for sure. gl :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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