Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

[fintron]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

Arctic Cosmos scratched and now Masked Marvel trading at 42...:unsure

Introduced into the betting at 16/1 with William Hill.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October Masked Marvel is a real player if he runs, but all this suplementing shit is awful for antepost punters.

[w1nsome]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

Masked Marvel is a real player if he runs' date=' but all this suplementing shit is awful for antepost punters.[/quote'] pays your money..takes your chance

[mowgli77]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

Masked Marvel is a real player if he runs' date=' but all this suplementing shit is awful for antepost punters.[/quote'] I agree completely, my idea would be that 2 weeks before the race final declarations are made and horses are not allowed to be supplemented after this point. :ok

[NewPunter]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October How many of O'Briens will actually run? Just St Nic and SYT?

[DLL]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

How many of O'Briens will actually run? Just St Nic and SYT?

O'Brien said last week SNA, SYT and Seville were the 3 being aimed at the race although none have been confirmed (I believe). But if they're still in at this stage you'd expect them to take their chance.

[w1nsome]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October A FIELD of 16 has been declared for the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on Sunday, with all three expected supplementary entries being made. Trainer John Gosden and owner Bjorn Nielsen have decided to run Ladbrokes St Leger winner Masked Marvel at a cost of €100,000, after scratching King George winner Nathaniel from the race on Wednesday. Seven-time Arc winner Andre Fabre will be respresented by Meandre, the winner of the Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris, while the third addition to the field is the Peter Schiergen-trained Danedream, who bids to become the first winner from Germany since Star Appeal in 1975. All the market leaders have stood their ground, with the only absentee from the previous forfeit stage being Seville. Trainer Aidan O'Brien will instead rely on Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach alongside St Nicholas Abbey and the strongly fancied So You Think as he goes in search of a second victory in the race following Dylan Thomas in 2007. The home defence will be headed by the Aga Khan's Sarafina, winner of the Prix Foy. Stablemate Relaible Man also features among the 16, although trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre has warned that he will monitor the ground before making a final decision on Sunday about the Prix Niel winner's participation. Prix Vermeille heroine Galikova also takes her chance and will bid to give Freddy Head a first success in the Arc as a trainer, having won it a record-equalling four times as a jockey

[switzerland]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October Just backed Meandre at 12s each way. Also did a small eway on Treasure Beach at 33s which seems value (hopefully he'll run). Will wait on Reliable Man as he'll only run if the ground is good according to reports. Even though I'm focusing on 3yo colts I'd have to be against Masked Marvel given that the Ledger was a hard race only 3 weeks ago and he hasn't been specifically aimed at this. Plus he has never won over 12f and appeared to be better over further and the ground will possibly make this less of a stamina test than other years.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

O'Brien said last week SNA' date=' SYT and Seville were the 3 being aimed at the race although none have been confirmed (I believe). But if they're still in at this stage you'd expect them to take their chance.[/quote'] That's why I despise the man. No word whatsoever that Treasure Beach is aimed at the race and suddenly Seville is out and TB is entered.

[DLL]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

Just backed Meandre at 12s each way. Also did a small eway on Treasure Beach at 33s which seems value (hopefully he'll run). Will wait on Reliable Man as he'll only run if the ground is good according to reports. Even though I'm focusing on 3yo colts I'd have to be against Masked Marvel given that the Ledger was a hard race only 3 weeks ago and he hasn't been specifically aimed at this. Plus he has never won over 12f and appeared to be better over further and the ground will possibly make this less of a stamina test than other years.

I agree with you regarding MM, he does seem to be a better horse over further and his pedigree backs it up with more stamina than speed. Plus the horses he beat in the Ledger aren't really the same class as the others have beat, apart from sea moon who would've pushed MM with a better ride. I would be interesting to see the record of the Ledger winner in the race though. The only one I can think of off the top of my head to try it was the great Nijinski who should have won but finished 2nd, although I'm sure more have tried it. Connections must think he has a good chance though as it's unlikely they'd pay a hundred grand just to have a runner.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October I don't understand why Sir Michael Stoute has a concern about the going for Workforce, when he broke the Derby record at Epsom it was Good to firm ground. I thought i read the french were going to water, or l'eau water. lol http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/09/29/RACING_Arc_Lead.html&BID=465

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

That's why I despise the man. No word whatsoever that Treasure Beach is aimed at the race and suddenly Seville is out and TB is entered.

If syt wins i can see you hating him more. LISTEN, when you have to lose your tackle, LISTEN, when you have to go in for the Op. LISTEN, syt does have a chance.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October Don't care if SYT wins to be fair. Will just have to hide until the numpties brag how he's the best ever and so on :lol

[mileni4uk]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October Oh btw this would probably be Ryan Moore's last ride for Stoute. Rumours from so many places that he will be Ballydoyle's stable jockey next year. Who will get Stoute job? Silvestre? Hope so :hope

[fintron]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

Just backed Meandre at 12s each way. Also did a small eway on Treasure Beach at 33s which seems value (hopefully he'll run). Will wait on Reliable Man as he'll only run if the ground is good according to reports. Even though I'm focusing on 3yo colts I'd have to be against Masked Marvel given that the Ledger was a hard race only 3 weeks ago and he hasn't been specifically aimed at this. Plus he has never won over 12f and appeared to be better over further and the ground will possibly make this less of a stamina test than other years.

I'm thinking on the same lines as you mate, 1m4f Group 1 winners that won't mind fastish ground and are getting the WFA. Good value for both IMO

[Stevet1859]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October I agree with you too Switzerland, there is a bit of 40s about for Treasure Beach, had an each way dabble. First and second in two Derbys...even if it seems a bit of an after thought. The race tends to be won by hold up horses, however (if Treasure Beach runs), and kicks for home off a decent pace, then he may take some catching.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October My problem with Treasure Beach is horses that peak early in season don't win Arcs. He isn't Sea The Stars obviously, so even if he is overpriced can he really win it? I might have a saver, but that's as far as I would go with him. Like the horse a lot though. Derby run and Nathaniel Chester beating are very strong form lines. Probably hated good to soft when he flopped in France. There has to be one or two of Galikova/Reliable Man/Meandre etc. bunch, that will peak on Sunday and beat him. And that's only from the 3yo's.

[fintron]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October To be honest I don't think Treasure Beach will win either Milen, if Meandre reproduces the form he shown when landing the Grand Prix De Paris, he's looking for a place at best, and thats before considering the chances of the other rivals. However, he's won the Irish Derby which is perhaps stronger than some of the other foriegn form, and he won't mind the ground at all. If some of the frenchies find the ground too quick, I could see him getting first run on a couple and maybe nicking place. There's no way he's a 40/1 shot in receipt of 8lb from the older horses, no way, and for value alone he has to be backed. I know its the Arc and in competitive field, packed with Group 1 winners, something has to be an outsider, but with doubts over the ground this year it would be rude not to back him. I know you can't always read into formlines so literally, but he was beaten by only a head in the Derby. If Pour Moi had been lining up here, what price would he have been? 3/1 fav in my eyes - so 40/1 for a horse thats won two Group 1's since, including on good ground and over this trip - is staggering value - I'd take anything down to 20/1 - anything beyond that then its probably worth backing Meandre based on the Grand Prix De Paris formline?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October I don't think the Irish Derby is strong form at all. The dog of all dogs Seville is 2nd and the "slow" Memphis Tennessee, who was used as a pacemaker in the Derby is 3rd. Treasure Beach is just a very good horse and always a bit underrated, because he isn't flashy. Very much in the Cape Blanco mould and other similar Ballydoyle types. The losing margin is of no significance though. I think it's very wrong to say Pour Moi only beat him a neck and would've been 10 times smaller price, so TB is value. I think Pour Moi was that short with a reason. For me he is different class, he can beat any rival a neck with the type of ride he is. Very rarely you would see a horse quicken twice and came from so far back to go past the whole field. If he was closer to pace and on flatter track in the Derby, he would've won by 7-8L. He deserved to be antepost fav for Arc. Like John Gosden said, if it wasn't an undulating track Pour Moi wins easily. He was that impressed by him - I think in relation to the Group 2 win in France when his yardstick Questioning was 5th. A lot of horses can be overpriced and still won't make a bet. If I make sense. Treasure Beach seems to be one of these. :)

[fintron]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe - Killer Stats

• 14 of the last 17 winners were 3-y-o
• All of the last 6 winners were Group 1 winners over 1m4f

I confess to not being a stats man normally but they are often good hooklines to get you interested in a race and the reasons why these two trends have come about is quite simple really and they look more than just coincidence. The three-year-old stats comes about because of their powerful weight-for-age allowance - colts receive 8lb while fillies receive 11lb from older horses, even though we're approaching the final few months of the season and, from 1st January, they'd be classed as 4-y-o themselves. The class stat doesn't really need much explanation either - you need to be a class act to win this race and proven, top-level form over the trip can be no bad thing. If you genuinely believe that the older horses face a tough task in giving the weight away and look beyond them you are left with longlist of eight. If you then cut the numbers further by focussing only on those with Group 1- winning form over 1m4f you are left with the following (and here are there credentials): 1) Treasure Beach (40/1): Has won five races over 7f, to 1m4f, including the Irish Derby (1m4f) and Arlington Mile (1m2f) at the highest level, on ground ranging from good-to-firm to yielding. Finished fourth to Meandre over this C&D in the Grand Prix De Paris on good-to-soft ground. 3yo colt. Carries 8-11 2) Meandre (12/1): Has won three races over 1m2f to 1m4f, including the Grand Prix De Paris (1m4f, Group 1) on ground ranging from good to good-to-soft. Was supplemented into the race for legendary Arc trainer Andre Fabre for 100k yesterday. Rumours of a virus in the yard when beaten by Reliable Man last time, having previously beaten that rival (and Treasure Beach) in the Grand Prix De Paris. 3 yo colt. Carries 8-11 3) Galikova (7/1): Has won five races over 1m to 1m4f, including the Prix Vermeille (Group 1, 1m4f) on ground ranging from good to soft to soft. 3yo filly. Carries 8-8 4) Danedream (20/1): Has won four races from 6f to 1m4f, including the Preis Von Baden (Group 1, 1m4f) on ground ranging from good to soft. 3 yo filly. Carries 8-8

[fintron]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

A lot of horses can be overpriced and still won't make a bet. If I make sense. Treasure Beach seems to be one of these. :)

I understand what you mean. If you go around backing all those considered value in a given race you could in theory end up backing half of the field etc. In this instance, the ground is they key for me. I respect Galikova but don't know if it will be soft enough for her. The trainer says she will be okay but at the price I'd rather be against than with her. Not sure on the form of the Germany Group 1 and, like Switzerland said above, I'd rather be with a colt than filly here. So for me, the final selections pick themselves, hopefully they get a clear run. Good luck to everyone having a bet in the race :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October What's with Reliable Man and the drift? Ground?

[w1nsome]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

What's with Reliable Man and the drift? Ground?

you tipped it:lol

[fintron]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

What's with Reliable Man and the drift? Ground?

I think so yeah. Although I didnt see the programme myself, I heard the trainer expressed some doubts in an interview earlier in the week, think it was one of those pieces RUK keep doing. Wonder if he'll declare in the morning?

[mileni4uk]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

you tipped it:lol

Me? When? :unsure

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

Originally Posted by Samba_SamPa Arc De Triomphe (Oct 4th 2011) - Meandre - 0.1pt win @ 145 avg & 0.4pt place @ 60 Put up a very taking performance to win the Prix De L'Avre at the back end of May, getting no kind of a run through on the inside, having to be snatched up and taken round the back of the field, before mowing them all down to win going away. Not guaranteed to be routed to the Arc, but that is factored into the price of course. Likely to be running in the Prix Du Lys this coming weekend, and if winning there then likely he'll be trading around 40-50/1 for the Arc come Monday.

Well the first part has been achieved, he's been supplemented. He should have his going also, now just need to hope :hope he doesn't come 4th :wall lol

[w1nsome]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October g/l samba..nice prices:ok

[fintron]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

Well the first part has been achieved' date=' he's been supplemented. He should have his going also, now just need to hope :hope he doesn't come 4th :wall lol[/quote'] Im jealous - very nice price :ok

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

Im jealous - very nice price :ok

8th June I posted that in my 'Any Each Way..' thread, week and bit after he won the Prix De L'Avre. It was somebody whose opinion I value highly away from PL who highlighted the race to me, and after seeing how he somehow won from the position he was in I thought it was worth it for a few quid at those prices. He's the one in yellow in this video... Maybe been a tad fortunate with Fabre's Pour Moi coming out, but after he won the GP de Paris I'm sure (ish) that he would have been supplemented anyway. Anyway. he's in the race now, and the ground has come in his favour, so got every chance :hope

[switzerland]

Re: Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October This is slowly turning into a Meandre love in. Fingers crossed he goes well. Regarding Treasure Beach - I kind of agree with Milen in that its hard not to see one of the other 3year olds improve past him. I did a small eway on him as I would be kicking myself afterwords if he did win and I hadn't backed him. He has G1 form over 12f, fits the trends, ground should suit and he has had a decent break. Hopefully O'Brien doesn't use him as a pacemaker or pull him out the last minute (only entry I could find for him is for the Champion Stakes which I doubt would suit him).