Arc De Triomphe Sun 2nd October

[jushawes]

Looking at the last 12 Arcs, these are the winners, odds, age and number of Group 1 successes recorded that season before winning at Longchamp. 2010 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Workforce, 6/1, 3YO (English Derby Winner) 2009 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Sea The Stars, 4/6f, 3YO (2000 Guineas, English Derby, Coral Eclipse, Juddmonte & Irish Champion Stakes Winner) 2008 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Zarkava, 13/8f, 3YO (French 1000 Guineas, French Oaks & Prix Vermeille Winner) 2007 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Dylan Thomas, 11/2, 4YO (Prix Ganay, King George & Irish Champion Stakes Winner) 2006 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Rail Link, 8/1, 3YO (Grand Prix de Paris Winner) 2005 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Hurricane Run, 11/4, 3YO (Irish Derby Winner) 2004 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Bago, 10/1, 3YO (Prix Jean Prat & Grand Prix de Paris Winner) 2003 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Dalakhani, 9/4, 3YO (Prix Lupin & French Derby Winner) 2002 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Marienbard, 158/10, 5YO (WGZ Bank-Deutschlandpreis & Grosser Preis von Baden Winner) 2001 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Sakhee, 11/5f, 4YO (Juddmonte Winner) 2000 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Sinndar, 6/4, 3YO (English & Irish Derby Winner) 1999 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Montjeu, 6/4jf, 3YO (French & Irish Derby Winner) Must be bored today guys, but here goes! 9 of the last 12 Arc winners, have been 3 years old. 2 have been 4 years old and 1 has been 5 years old. All have won at least one Group 1 during that season prior to winning The Arc. So, according to trends, if we write off the 5-year old Marienbard win, we are looking for a horse that is 3 or 4, who is less than 10-1 in the betting and who has won at least one Group 1 this year. Looking at the current Arc Ante Post market, for horses 10/1 and below that leaves us with; Galikova, 3 year old half-sister to Super mare Goldikova, who is improving but crucially has not yet won a Group 1 this season. The Prix Vermeille could change that however. Sea Moon, 3 year old Ante Post favourite for the St Leger. No St Leger winner has ever won The Arc. Crucially, has also not yet won a Group 1 this season currently. Meandre, 3 year old who has won the Group 1, Grand Prix de Paris this year. Also trained by Arc legend Andre Fabre. (Fits the same race profile as Arc winners Bago and Rail Link) So You Think, Aussie superstar campaigning in Europe for the first time this year. Has won two Group 1's this season. (Tattersalls Gold Cup & Coral Eclipse) 5 years old though and the talk is that he will be aimed by Ballydoyle at The Irish Champion Stakes and then The Cox Plate, rather than The Arc. Nathaniel, 3 year old who is improving at a rate of knots. 5 length winner of a Group 2 at Royal Ascot was then followed up by his first Group 1 win last time out in The King George, beating Workforce and St Nicholas Abbey in the process. Workforce, 4 year old who hasn't had the best campaign since winning The Derby and Arc last year. Another who crucially, according to trends, hasn't won a Group 1 to date this season. Sarafina, 4 year old Ante-Post favourite for The Arc, now that Pour Moi has been retired to stud. Finished 3rd in The Arc last year after a difficult trip. Has won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint Cloud this season, so it fits the profile according to trends. (No Arc winner in the 12 years studied though only won this particular Group 1 before winning) In summary then, for what it's worth, Nathaniel or Meandre look the most likely winner of The Arc based on trends and Sarafina also fits the profile and therefore can't be written off. However, no Arc favourite has won in the last 12 years whose odds weren't lower than 11/5! So guys, history suggests that with five weeks to go until the big day, you shouldn't be putting your Arc money on anything other than those three! :-) Good luck!

[Trotter]

Re: Arc trends What did everyone make of the trials ? I thought Sarafina was tremendously impressive She could have gone for the Vermeilles which might have been an easier option for another group one win but they ran her against the colts Her first couple of runs against colts she got beat, so i think they're deliberately running her against colts in the build up to the arc to get her over any problem she might have being amongst the boys She put that to bed today emphatically by shoving her way through a narrow gap between two big huge brutes. I think she'll probably go off favourite now