Flat Racing 26th Aug

[chris34]

3.30 Newmarket This race looks priced up as if it is going to be run on fast ground and looking at weather forecasts it certainly isnt going to be that and therefore it is perhaps worth taking some early prices with the BOG firms just incase the rain doesnt turn up! Kazbow hasnt always looked the most straightforward at times but when he does find his form he is usually reliable but another 2lb rise for latest 2nd makes life tougher again and all form is on fast ground and certainly not gonna get an easy time of things up front in this field. Sherman Mccoy finally got back on the winning trail last time out over 1m6f at Salisbury rather got the run of the race but the yard do believe he was going to make a useful handicapper before setback last year but all his best form is on fast ground. Mister Angry is a capable performer on his day but has never won back to back wins and tends to be very unpredictable and therefore generally opposable. Regal Park has form on soft ground for Noseda last year but has been running to a similar level all starts this season for new yard and looks held by the handicapper currently and this race is no easier. Plenty of front runners in this field and the likelihood of softer ground stamina could be a good thing in this field and therefore My Arch looks a big price, this trip perhaps isnt far enough but has won over a 1f shorter. Recently took advantage of a drop in the weights to win of his last winning mark at Ponte over 2m2f, never in the race when racing in the Northumberland plate similar story in Goodwood Stakes, this is an easier assignment and only 3lb higher has won over this course before. Another that interests me with the likely forcast cut is Danvilla who is turning out to be a smart stayer, good second to the run away Keys on penultimate start, then went on to win off a 2lb higher mark over this course over a furlong further, perhaps got a soft time of it up front but he remains unexposed and open to more improvement and a 5lb rise doesnt look harsh having won well. Another unexposed runner is Manifestation who appeared to relish the step up in trip last time out to run out a confident winner, not had much racing and clearly has more to offer. The only 3yr old in the field he is recieving lumps of weight off most of these and that ought to tell at this stage of the season in this grade. 4lb rise is defenetily not excessive main concern is the ground although the win did come on good ground, closely related to the useful Sergeant Cecil who has plenty of form on ground with cut which offers hope! 2pt win Manifestation 4/1 vc 1pt win My Arch 20/1 vc 1pt win Danvilla 8/1 vc

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing 26th Aug 4.35 newm : the recent run of capaille liath 9/1 generally was a huge step forward in form for this horse and brings him out top on adjusted ratings even off top weight .....possibly even better to come now has hit stride .collateral form suggests he will be beaten by the goldolphin horse my freedom but i think capaille liath has suddenly improved since then and the help of jamie spencer here is a big plus 5pts e.w