Machine Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 During the closed season I've been tinkering with my A.I. (Neural Nets) program to see if I could come up with a reasonably workable solution for a selection process for the footy. Well here it is Dont know if its any good but will soon find out. :loon I will be backing with real money as I do in my AI horses thread but dont recommend anyone else doing so. All bets will be 10 pts fixed stake (no fixed bank, I will decide when im losing too much :lol ) Todays selections ipswich.......... a @ 3.00 vc s/hmpton........ x @ 3.5 vc walsall............ h @2.6 bfred wycomb.......... h @ 2.5 bfred gillingham........ x @ 3.6 vc shrewsbury...... x @ 3.75 vc :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: A.I. Football ipswich.......... a @ 3.00 vc.....won s/hmpton........ x @ 3.5 vc......lost walsall............ h @2.6 Bfred...won wycomb.......... h @ 2.5 Bfred..lost gillingham........ x @ 3.6 vc......lost shrewsbury...... x @ 3.75 vc....won not a bad start staked 60 won 3 lost 3 sr 50% return 90.35 profit 33.50 yield 50.58% return should read 93.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: A.I. Football not a bad start staked 60 won 3 lost 3 sr 50% return 90.35 profit 33.50 yield 50.58% I would say that is a great start, nonkeys nest. :clap In your back testing what sort of yield were you able to achieve? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: A.I. Football I second that...An excellent start :ok and good luck for the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Hi davidc I dont know how au fait you are with A.I. (neural net) but it doesn't really do back-testing. Its more of a predictive sort of function (you throw he numbers at it , it gives you an answer) end of. That's what I like about AI it doesn't dream up false prices(so called value),it works purely on the available prices and the factors that work within those available prices. I said not a bad start as its a long season and I'm not the sort of person who gets too carried away. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angeal Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Hi davidc I dont know how au fait you are with A.I. (neural net) but it doesn't really do back-testing. Its more of a predictive sort of function (you throw he numbers at it , it gives you an answer) end of. That's what I like about AI it doesn't dream up false prices(so called value),it works purely on the available prices and the factors that work within those available prices. I said not a bad start as its a long season and I'm not the sort of person who gets too carried away. :ok Hi, don't mind admitting I am unfamiliar with A.I. (neural net) could you possibly tell me is it your own programme or something you have purchased? Pretty impressive start though. Al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 6, 2011 Author Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Hi angeal its my own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Hi davidc I dont know how au fait you are with A.I. (neural net) but it doesn't really do back-testing. Its more of a predictive sort of function (you throw he numbers at it , it gives you an answer) end of. That's what I like about AI it doesn't dream up false prices(so called value),it works purely on the available prices and the factors that work within those available prices. I said not a bad start as its a long season and I'm not the sort of person who gets too carried away. :ok Great start :cheers But if your AI, doesn´t dream up value, does it then dream up non value? I don`t get it? Good luck, I will follow your AI with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angeal Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Hi angeal its my own. Thanks for letting me know. In which case I will follow your thread and see how you do are these easy to create or do you need to be a good programmer? Al Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 7, 2011 Author Share Posted August 7, 2011 Re: A.I. Football But if your AI, doesn´t dream up value, does it then dream up non value? I don`t get it? Value is an opinion,computers dont have opinions they just deal with facts in the best possible way they can. So if a team is a 2/1 shot the prog doesnt dream up a price of 3/1 and call it value it works with the 2/1 and gives the best options overall compared with the rest of the teams. are these easy to create or do you need to be a good programmer? Al you can buy off the shelf NNets for excel quite cheap which are easy to use HERE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shy10ck Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Value is not an opinion you dream up. Value is subjektive, yes, but whether you use AI, spreadsheets or pen and paper. It is you (or the proggrammer) that decides which parameters to use when calculating. We use systems, to secure we stay true (objektive) to the parameters we have chosen as important, so basically there is no difference between, AI and a system based on pen and paper. The only difference could be, that pen and paper know when it finds the value it is seeking, and the AI just point out the best possibilities? Anyway I find AI exiting and I hope you succeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Re: A.I. Football It is nice somebody finally introduced neural networks (NN) to this forum. Thank you, Monkeys! I’ve been looking at NN for a while considering if it is worth an effort to learn this “modern’ technique. What I’ve found that NN employs the same classic statistical methods (regressions, Markov chains, etc.) for its “learning” and in fact it is the same “old” statistics just wrapped up in a new paper. But nevertheless it is no doubt a giant step forward in betting approach. So, Monkeys, no joke, could you please shed some light on what kind of criteria you chose for NN inputs. And it is particularly interesting if you’ve used time series analysis and if yes, what kind of data is basis for it? Anyway, will follow this tread with interest! All the best! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 Re: A.I. Football I tried using NN backpropagation (time series analysis) but as you say gives out similar to regression which is average to say the least. Opted for generic/genetic optimization which starts with the full set of factors and tests them against each other rather than pattern finding,then like natural selection weeds out the weakest eliminates it and then retests the others again renewing the process until the strongest factors are left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Re: A.I. Football ... Opted for generic/genetic optimization which starts with the full set of factors and tests them against each other rather than pattern finding,then like natural selection weeds out the weakest eliminates it and then retests the others again renewing the process until the strongest factors are left. Still sounds like multivariate regression with best subsets selection method... Anyway, I wonder what kind of output you get: is it binomial kind (yes/no, win/no_win), or probability prediction (0.45 win, 0.35 lose, 0.20 draw)???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 Re: A.I. Football probability But not based on w/d/l. Its an attempt at adapting the idea behind 'QUARBS' betting into a workable solution for the fixed odds market instead of the spreads. It may work it may not we shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Ok, Monkeys, thank you for answering, your output is probability. If it is not w/d/l, then it could be anything like probability of win, goals difference or whatever. I fully understant and appreciate your unvilingness to share details. But what I dont understand is why you completely dismiss "value" in your previous posts? Because if your system predicts probability then it is inevitable to compare this "predicted probability" with "implied probability" reflected by the odds. It makes no sense for me to have a system producing probability and at the same time ignoring the concept of "value". (I am not a "value" fanatic, so please try to stay calm in your answer:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Value in betting terminology is an abstract concept It can neither be proved nor disproved. Yet 'value' is too often used by the 'look at the size of my cock ive had a 16/1 winner ' or the 'in the long run i'll be profitable' fanatics to try and impress, neither of which I have any time for so, I dismiss it as early as possible in my threads so as to stop them coming on and trying to educate me in the art of the bleeding obvious ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Ok' date=' If it is not w/d/l, then it could be anything like probability of win, goals difference or whatever.[/quote'] Did you read the link on Quarbs You have the answer already in your post on bookmakers, When you eat an orange you dont put it all in your mouth at once do you ;) . I didnt dismiss value, I said totaly different If it doesnt dream them up where must they be ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulkis Posted August 8, 2011 Share Posted August 8, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Did you read the link on Quarbs I would read it before posting my questions, but at that moment there were no links in your initial post... Anyway thank you for the link. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Re: A.I. Football ........ I tried Neural Networks a few years back, I had various models and bought various pieces of software. Unfortunately I found that what you got out at the end of the day was not worth what was fed in initially. After all there are no values or anything like that, just a set of variables fed in by whoever is running the NN. It seeks to look at patterns and remember various situations, but these are a lot of work for very little reward. I do hope you find something here though. Good luck in your attempts. Cheers. Merlin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 12, 2011 Author Share Posted August 12, 2011 Re: A.I. Football tomorrows bets 10pts staked = 50pts bury...............h @ 2.3 vc chesterfield.....h @ 2.3 vc hartlepool.......x @ 3.5 vc scunthorpe.....a @ 3.0 skybet sheff utd........x @ 3.5 vc :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 14, 2011 Author Share Posted August 14, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Just the 1 winner (hartlepool) and a late goal @ scunthorpe cost me a winning week staked 110 won 4 lost 7 sr 36% return 128.50 profit 18.50 yield 16.81% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 15, 2011 Author Share Posted August 15, 2011 Re: A.I. Football 2 for tomorrow Hereford..... x @ 3.5 B365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted August 15, 2011 Share Posted August 15, 2011 Re: A.I. Football ....... the system is beginning to shape up then, well done and hope this continues. I shall be keeping an eye on this and an open mind. Good luck!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Last 2 lost staked 130 won 4 lost 9 sr 30% return 128.50 profit -1.5 yield -1% 3 for today all draws Swansea Brighton Walsall All 3.5 with B365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Re: A.I. Football "Top bombing" monkeys nest...3/3 :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 Re: A.I. Football 3 for today all draws Swansea :clap Brighton :clap Walsall :clap All 3.5 with B365 staked 160 won 7 lost 9 sr 43.75% return 233.50 profit 73.5 yield 45.93% :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 Re: A.I. Football 5 for this week 50pts staked Aston Villa v Wolves x 3.4pp Newcastle v Fulham x 3.4 sky West Brom v Stoke x 3.4 sky Accrington v Burton x 3.5 sky Oxford v Aldershot x 3.4 bfred :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horizon Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Re: A.I. Football Hi Friend Are these also draws ?? nice results so far -congrats. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machine Posted August 28, 2011 Author Share Posted August 28, 2011 Re: A.I. Football 5 for this week 50pts staked Aston Villa v Wolves x 3.4pp :clap Newcastle v Fulham x 3.4 Sky West Brom v Stoke x 3.4 Sky Accrington v Burton x 3.5 Sky Oxford v Aldershot x 3.4 Bfred :clap staked 210 won 9 lost 12 return 301.5 profit 91.5 yield 43.57% :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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