Learning Discipline

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

One tennis bet for today: Treble - Almagro, Cilic & Verdasco 2.5pts @Evens william hill Almagro is playing fantastic on clay this year and has won more matches than anyone else on the ATP tour on the surface. He lost to Simon last week in the final in Hamburg but he didn't drop a set en route. He should be too strong for Nieminen, who he's beaten the last three times they've met. Cilic hasn't had a great year but he looked a lot better at Hamburg and he'll want to get some wins under his belt before the Masters swing. Haase scraped past Vagnozzi in the first round and hasn't been playing as well recently as he did at the start of the year. Cilic leads the head-to-head 2-0 and should make it three today. Verdasco is a player I like. He's great to watch and can play some fantastic top 10 standard tennis at times. He can be a bit hit and miss and often makes some stupid errors. I don't think that should matter today against Gil, who has been off form for a while, losing to some very weak players. Verdasco won 7-6, 6-1 the last time they met and should be able to take it down in two again. :hope

The Almagro match resumed this morning and he won in straight sets, bringing in this treble for another +2.5pts. Total profit is now +19.25pts from stakes of 42.5pts. That's pretty tidy to be honest. :beer So far I've had one bet today and it's the first maximum of the thread: Harbour Watch @4/5 william hill BOG 5pts Harbour Watch is just too good to ignore. Hannon has won the race three times in a row and thinks that this horse could be better than all the rest. He beat Burwaaz comfortably at Newmarket and that horse looked good in the Molecombe, which makes the form even more impressive. The price is shorter on the exchanges than it is in the bookmakers so I'll take BOG for my first max. bet of the thread! :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline I've had one more bet today and I'm sticking with Hughesie: Lord of the Shadows 1pt win @9.6 and 1pt place @3.5 Hannon again with a strong hand here and again I've got to assume that top jock Hughes knows what he's doing sitting on Lord of the Shadows as opposed to Glee or Mr Knightley, who are both strong in the market as well. I'll be surprised if this horse finishes behind either of those two and that should give him an excellent chance. :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

The Almagro match resumed this morning and he won in straight sets' date=' bringing in this treble for another [b']+2.5pts. Total profit is now +19.25pts from stakes of 42.5pts. That's pretty tidy to be honest. :beer So far I've had one bet today and it's the first maximum of the thread: Harbour Watch @4/5 william hill BOG 5pts Harbour Watch is just too good to ignore. Hannon has won the race three times in a row and thinks that this horse could be better than all the rest. He beat Burwaaz comfortably at Newmarket and that horse looked good in the Molecombe, which makes the form even more impressive. The price is shorter on the exchanges than it is in the bookmakers so I'll take BOG for my first max. bet of the thread! :hope

I've had one more bet today and I'm sticking with Hughesie: Lord of the Shadows 1pt win @9.6 and 1pt place @3.5 Hannon again with a strong hand here and again I've got to assume that top jock Hughes knows what he's doing sitting on Lord of the Shadows as opposed to Glee or Mr Knightley, who are both strong in the market as well. I'll be surprised if this horse finishes behind either of those two and that should give him an excellent chance. :hope

:cow Harbour Watch won at evens (BOG) so +5pts Lord of the Shadows came third but was beaten in a photo. He was hampered a bit early on, so who knows what would have happened. Glee and Mr Knightley were not involved (as expected) +1.5pts Total Profit is now 25.75pts from a total stake of 50pts. Am I correct in thinking that this equates to a ROI of 50%?

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Haven't fully examined the card at Goodwood today but will probably have a few selections there this afternoon (shame Misty for Me is a non runner) First bet of the day is tennis: Mikhail Youzhny to beat Marcel Granollers 2pts @1.75 betfair I think the market is over-reacting to Granollers' win over Stan Wawrinka in the last round. Wawrinka hasn't been good for ages so beating him was hardly a miracle result, even if it was in Switzerland, so I'm not reading anything into the win. Youzhny hasn't been good at all this year but he's beginning to show some signs of improvement in the past few weeks and I think he'll be keen to win a very winnable Suisse Open to set him up nicely for the Masters series. He's 2-0 against Granollers and has never lost a set to the Spaniard. I'll be surprised if he doesn't win again today and make a long awaited ATP final.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline One cheeky football one today as well: St. Johnstone v Rangers Nikica Jelavic anytime goalscorer 1pt @2.04 Jelavic is a class above anyone else in the SPL and he scored 14 goals in his last 16 games last season. He'll average way more than 1 in 2 this year and playing as a lone striker he'll be given plenty of chances today. I think Rangers will bounce back from two poor results with a win but 1.5 is a joke, so I'm on their most likely scorer instead.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Haven't fully examined the card at Goodwood today but will probably have a few selections there this afternoon (shame Misty for Me is a non runner) First bet of the day is tennis: Mikhail Youzhny to beat Marcel Granollers 2pts @1.75 betfair I think the market is over-reacting to Granollers' win over Stan Wawrinka in the last round. Wawrinka hasn't been good for ages so beating him was hardly a miracle result, even if it was in Switzerland, so I'm not reading anything into the win. Youzhny hasn't been good at all this year but he's beginning to show some signs of improvement in the past few weeks and I think he'll be keen to win a very winnable Suisse Open to set him up nicely for the Masters series. He's 2-0 against Granollers and has never lost a set to the Spaniard. I'll be surprised if he doesn't win again today and make a long awaited ATP final.

One cheeky football one today as well: St. Johnstone v Rangers Nikica Jelavic anytime goalscorer 1pt @2.04 Jelavic is a class above anyone else in the SPL and he scored 14 goals in his last 16 games last season. He'll average way more than 1 in 2 this year and playing as a lone striker he'll be given plenty of chances today. I think Rangers will bounce back from two poor results with a win but 1.5 is a joke, so I'm on their most likely scorer instead.

Youzhny was awful and hasn't changed at all. His heart isn't in it at all and I made a bad move betting on him. -2pts Jelavic has already scored for Rangers, so that'll be a winner +1pt I'm backing two horses today: Invisible Man 2pts @11/8 BOG This horse is by a long way the best rated in this conditional race at Newmarket and I think this has been targeted as a race to win by Godolphin, who also have Colonial entered. William Buick on board and I think he'll be able to get the better of Al Khalej, who is respected but just not as good as Invisible Man. Rock Critic 4pts @evens betfair Had to take this price as I think it'll contract and it's shorter with all the BOG bookies. Rock Critic was a stunning winner for me earlier in the week and, if anything, is entitled to come on for that run. The Dermot Weld/Pat Smullen combo is on fire at the moment and I'm hopeful of another fine win. :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Youzhny was awful and hasn't changed at all. His heart isn't in it at all and I made a bad move betting on him. -2pts Jelavic has already scored for Rangers, so that'll be a winner +1pt I'm backing two horses today: Invisible Man 2pts @11/8 BOG This horse is by a long way the best rated in this conditional race at Newmarket and I think this has been targeted as a race to win by Godolphin, who also have Colonial entered. William Buick on board and I think he'll be able to get the better of Al Khalej, who is respected but just not as good as Invisible Man. Rock Critic 4pts @evens betfair Had to take this price as I think it'll contract and it's shorter with all the BOG bookies. Rock Critic was a stunning winner for me earlier in the week and, if anything, is entitled to come on for that run. The Dermot Weld/Pat Smullen combo is on fire at the moment and I'm hopeful of another fine win. :hope

Invisible Man finished second. He was finishing the best in the race and I think if run again, he would win. William Buick rode a four timer today at Newmarket, which makes this even more annoying! -2pts Rock Critic won. Wasn't quite as impressive as the last win but held on well under strong pressure at the finish. Dermot Weld has done me proud this week. +4pts

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Three today, all racing. Prix Rothschild Stakes - Goldikova 5pts @4/7 BOG Goldikova may have been touched off by Canford Cliffs at Royal Ascot but she's an absolute superstar nonetheless. She's rated 7lbs higher than any of her rivals and back in France she should be untouchable. Odds aren't great but they'll do. Maximum bet because class always comes through. Newbury 15:55 - Dare to Dream 2pts @5/2 BOG Annoyed that I took this price when 3/1 is currently widely available. I don't think that'll hold so BOG won't help. Richard Hannon has 4/9 runners here and Hughes is on Dare to Dream, so he must be considered the best. Was third on first start at 7f and seemed to relish the trip so I'm expecting this is the target to break the maiden tag. Newbury 16:30 - Polygon 3pts @7/4 BOG Polygon looked like a filly destined for big things when she won her maiden at Newbury in some style. She'll come on leaps and bounds for that win and this could well be her break-out race. Have taken a bit of a gamble with the stake but William Buick rode a four timer yesterday, so will be full of confidence and that is key when dealing with a potentially very good filly. :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Venturing into darts for the first time in this thread, with two bets I like on the same match: James Wade to beat Raymond van Barneveld - 2.5pts @1.82 Barneveld has been playing well in Dusseldorf but I think Wade will be too strong for him today. Wade's leading the stats in over 100s and 180s this week and he looks full of confidence. He's a better player than Barneveld at the moment and he should be able to win this one. Match 180s Over 7.5 - 4pts @1.75 The line here is very low for what will be a high quality match between two of the best players in the world. As mentioned above, Wade leads the tournament in 180s, hitting 12 in 22 legs of darts. Barneveld is fourth, at 8 in 25 legs so that's roughly 1 in 2 for Wade and 1 in 3 for Barney. If these stats hold up then Wade could clear the line himself in an easy win but I expect this will go to at least 16 legs, which gives a lot of scope for the bet.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Venturing into darts for the first time in this thread, with two bets I like on the same match: James Wade to beat Raymond van Barneveld - 2.5pts @1.82 Barneveld has been playing well in Dusseldorf but I think Wade will be too strong for him today. Wade's leading the stats in over 100s and 180s this week and he looks full of confidence. He's a better player than Barneveld at the moment and he should be able to win this one. Match 180s Over 7.5 - 4pts @1.75 The line here is very low for what will be a high quality match between two of the best players in the world. As mentioned above, Wade leads the tournament in 180s, hitting 12 in 22 legs of darts. Barneveld is fourth, at 8 in 25 legs so that's roughly 1 in 2 for Wade and 1 in 3 for Barney. If these stats hold up then Wade could clear the line himself in an easy win but I expect this will go to at least 16 legs, which gives a lot of scope for the bet.

Stupid, stupid, stupid :wall I don't know what I was thinking trying to bet on darts, never again. Match finished 10-8 to Barneveld, with seven 180s. Worst moment of this thread by a long, long way. :sad Goldikova won, which isn't even consolation, just makes me feel even worse about betting on the darts. This one will take a lot of getting over. Won't have a bet for the rest of the day and may even take the day off tomorrow. :@

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Three today, all racing. Prix Rothschild Stakes - Goldikova 5pts @4/7 BOG Goldikova may have been touched off by Canford Cliffs at Royal Ascot but she's an absolute superstar nonetheless. She's rated 7lbs higher than any of her rivals and back in France she should be untouchable. Odds aren't great but they'll do. Maximum bet because class always comes through. Newbury 15:55 - Dare to Dream 2pts @5/2 BOG Annoyed that I took this price when 3/1 is currently widely available. I don't think that'll hold so BOG won't help. Richard Hannon has 4/9 runners here and Hughes is on Dare to Dream, so he must be considered the best. Was third on first start at 7f and seemed to relish the trip so I'm expecting this is the target to break the maiden tag. Newbury 16:30 - Polygon 3pts @7/4 BOG Polygon looked like a filly destined for big things when she won her maiden at Newbury in some style. She'll come on leaps and bounds for that win and this could well be her break-out race. Have taken a bit of a gamble with the stake but William Buick rode a four timer yesterday, so will be full of confidence and that is key when dealing with a potentially very good filly. :hope

Venturing into darts for the first time in this thread, with two bets I like on the same match: James Wade to beat Raymond van Barneveld - 2.5pts @1.82 Barneveld has been playing well in Dusseldorf but I think Wade will be too strong for him today. Wade's leading the stats in over 100s and 180s this week and he looks full of confidence. He's a better player than Barneveld at the moment and he should be able to win this one. Match 180s Over 7.5 - 4pts @1.75 The line here is very low for what will be a high quality match between two of the best players in the world. As mentioned above, Wade leads the tournament in 180s, hitting 12 in 22 legs of darts. Barneveld is fourth, at 8 in 25 legs so that's roughly 1 in 2 for Wade and 1 in 3 for Barney. If these stats hold up then Wade could clear the line himself in an easy win but I expect this will go to at least 16 legs, which gives a lot of scope for the bet.

Goldikova won +2.75pts Dare to Dream won +5pts Polygon finished 4th -3pts Lewis lost -2.5pts There were 7 180s -4pts Loss for today of -1.75pts and this is the worst I've felt since starting this thread. I'm really disappointed with myself for stupid bets that changed a 4.75pt (£95) win into a 1.75pts (£35) loss. That's a swing £120. I'm doing this with my own money and that is very tough to take. Very downheartened and really not feeling this glory hunt at all at the moment, but here are the totals at the end of one week: Staked: 75.5pts (£1510) Returned 102.5pts (£2050) Profit: 27pts (£540) Conclusions after one week are that it's going well but I'm an idiot. The football is incredible, up 11.25pts with 6/6 bets being winners, the racing at Galway was brilliant, up a lot (can't be bothered working it out) but Goodwood was generally poor. Down a few points there, I think, but not critically. Darts was horrendous, don't know what I was thinking. :$ Overall, totally surpassed my target of £200 for the week with a nice profit of £540 but I'm left annoyed. *does anyone know how to update the title - should read LACKING discipline - so that I can edit in my profit/loss per week?

[Atko]

Re: Learning Discipline

Goldikova won +2.75pts Dare to Dream won +5pts Polygon finished 4th -3pts Lewis lost -2.5pts There were 7 180s -4pts Loss for today of -1.75pts and this is the worst I've felt since starting this thread. I'm really disappointed with myself for stupid bets that changed a 4.75pt (£95) win into a 1.75pts (£35) loss. That's a swing £120. I'm doing this with my own money and that is very tough to take. Very downheartened and really not feeling this glory hunt at all at the moment, but here are the totals at the end of one week: Staked: 75.5pts (£1510) Returned 102.5pts (£2050) Profit: 27pts (£540) Conclusions after one week are that it's going well but I'm an idiot. The football is incredible, up 11.25pts with 6/6 bets being winners, the racing at Galway was brilliant, up a lot (can't be bothered working it out) but Goodwood was generally poor. Down a few points there, I think, but not critically. Darts was horrendous, don't know what I was thinking. :$ Overall, totally surpassed my target of £200 for the week with a nice profit of £540 but I'm left annoyed. *does anyone know how to update the title - should read LACKING discipline - so that I can edit in my profit/loss per week?

The profit you have made this week is a figure that most would drool over. Of course, it could have been more, but the fact you have coined in more than £500 in a week - and suffered a bout of indiscipline - is a good show. Hopefully your step up to the oche will serve as a warning as to what could happen if you break your discipline rules. Don't be annoyed. Easy for me to say, I know, but learn from the mistake, rather than beat yourself up about it. With a fraction of that £540, I'd reccommend a sharp Hendricks and tonic - with cucumber, of course - and plot out a route for next week :ok

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

The profit you have made this week is a figure that most would drool over. Of course' date=' it could have been more, but the fact you have coined in more than £500 in a week - and suffered a bout of indiscipline - is a good show. Hopefully your step up to the oche will serve as a warning as to what could happen if you break your discipline rules. Don't be annoyed. Easy for me to say, I know, but learn from the mistake, rather than beat yourself up about it. With a fraction of that £540, I'd reccommend a sharp Hendricks and tonic - with cucumber, of course - and plot out a route for next week :ok[/quote'] Cheers Atko. Yes, it definitely will serve as a warning, was just very frustrating, given the title of this thread. The only thing I'm trying to do here is cut out the stupidity and to start already is pretty bad. I suppose the positive is that there has only been 2 of these bets and the fact that they have occurred shows just how psychological I am/was! Bring on next week!

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline So, I've made a bad start to the week by making a mistake in a bet! I've backed Elna Bright @9/1 with william hill because I think the horse has a great chance. He's well treated by the handicapper based on all-weather form and I think this is the race where connections are expecting that to translate to a win on turf. The booking of Kieren Fallon illustrates as much. However, I placed a bet of 1pt e/w and then re-considered and wanted to add more. I'm not sure what came over me but I've put another 2pts on the win, instead of another 1pt e/w. This leaves me in a bizarre situation. The price has shortened, so I can lay off the 2pts, although the money required to do so is quite a lot, or I can let it run and maybe add another 2pts on the place market in betfair. This would leave me with liabilities of 6pts on the horse though and I'm not so sure about that! It's a thinker. The other horses I'm backing today are far more straight forward: 14:45 Ripon - Tancred Spirit to be placed [email protected] Tancred Spirit has been placed in 7 of her 8 starts and is a remarkably consistent filly. She has a chance to claim her first win here but I'm worried about Silvestre De Sousa on Melodize. The rest of the field look pretty exposed and I'm pretty happy to take her to finish in the top three. 16:15 Ripon - Eland Ally 2pts @5/2 This horse was narrowly beaten at Haydock last time out but looked really good, fighting back after a slow start. Trainer Tom Tate has another runner (On The High Tops) running here and it looks like it's because he's targetted this as a win for Eland Ally. Tom Queally is on board, which after his week at Goodwood is a good thing. Queally also rode him when he won at Doncaster so he knows what to do to get him home. I missed the boat on Gilles Muller beating Igor Kunitysn tonight. He opened up at 10/11 but is now unbackable at 4/7, so looks like no tennis bets today.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

So' date=' I've made a bad start to the week by making a mistake in a bet! I've backed [b']Elna Bright @9/1 with william hill because I think the horse has a great chance. He's well treated by the handicapper based on all-weather form and I think this is the race where connections are expecting that to translate to a win on turf. The booking of Kieren Fallon illustrates as much. However, I placed a bet of 1pt e/w and then re-considered and wanted to add more. I'm not sure what came over me but I've put another 2pts on the win, instead of another 1pt e/w. This leaves me in a bizarre situation. The price has shortened, so I can lay off the 2pts, although the money required to do so is quite a lot, or I can let it run and maybe add another 2pts on the place market in betfair. This would leave me with liabilities of 6pts on the horse though and I'm not so sure about that! It's a thinker. The other horses I'm backing today are far more straight forward: 14:45 Ripon - Tancred Spirit to be placed [email protected] Tancred Spirit has been placed in 7 of her 8 starts and is a remarkably consistent filly. She has a chance to claim her first win here but I'm worried about Silvestre De Sousa on Melodize. The rest of the field look pretty exposed and I'm pretty happy to take her to finish in the top three. 16:15 Ripon - Eland Ally 2pts @5/2 This horse was narrowly beaten at Haydock last time out but looked really good, fighting back after a slow start. Trainer Tom Tate has another runner (On The High Tops) running here and it looks like it's because he's targetted this as a win for Eland Ally. Tom Queally is on board, which after his week at Goodwood is a good thing. Queally also rode him when he won at Doncaster so he knows what to do to get him home. I missed the boat on Gilles Muller beating Igor Kunitysn tonight. He opened up at 10/11 but is now unbackable at 4/7, so looks like no tennis bets today.

Mixed day so far: Tancred Spirit finished second, with Melodize winning. They were both some way ahead of the rest of the field. Called it right. +2pts (slightly more but makes P/L easier). Eland Ally was very disappointing. I don't know if the fact that On The High Tops didn't run was an issue but he was never in with a chance. The horse that won (Lady Royale) looked good though. -2pts As far as the Elna Bright bet goes. I know it's insane but I'm just going to let it run. If it wins, the profit is HUGE and if it places then I'm getting pretty much 2/1 on the each-way section, meaning that I'll have lost 1pt. The horse has been backed in to 5/1, so it must have a chance anyway....:hope So, to keep the thread clean: 19:40 Windsor Elna Bright 3pts win @9/1 and 1pt place at 9/5

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

So' date=' I've made a bad start to the week by making a mistake in a bet! I've backed [b']Elna Bright @9/1 with william hill because I think the horse has a great chance. He's well treated by the handicapper based on all-weather form and I think this is the race where connections are expecting that to translate to a win on turf. The booking of Kieren Fallon illustrates as much. However, I placed a bet of 1pt e/w and then re-considered and wanted to add more. I'm not sure what came over me but I've put another 2pts on the win, instead of another 1pt e/w. This leaves me in a bizarre situation. The price has shortened, so I can lay off the 2pts, although the money required to do so is quite a lot, or I can let it run and maybe add another 2pts on the place market in betfair. This would leave me with liabilities of 6pts on the horse though and I'm not so sure about that! It's a thinker.

Elna Bright finished third. Not the end of the world but a tinge of disappointment as I thought fate had decided to throw me a big win! -1pts on the race and -1pts for the day.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline I have to post these quickly as the first match is starting soon but Mexico U20 to beat North Korea U20 - 5pts @8/11 Argentina U20 to beat England U20 - 5pts @4/5 The form here is the Argentina v Mexico match, rather than the England v North Korea game. The first game was technically very good, featuring two good teams that are aiming to win this tournament. The second match was a technically poor North Korea side against a very, very weak England team. There were 30 eligible players made unavailable for England. I see comfortable wins for both South American sides.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

I have to post these quickly as the first match is starting soon but Mexico U20 to beat North Korea U20 - 5pts @8/11 Argentina U20 to beat England U20 - 5pts @4/5 The form here is the Argentina v Mexico match, rather than the England v North Korea game. The first game was technically very good, featuring two good teams that are aiming to win this tournament. The second match was a technically poor North Korea side against a very, very weak England team. There were 30 eligible players made unavailable for England. I see comfortable wins for both South American sides.

I'm doubling my bet on Argentina, based on the Mexico match. Mexico outclasses North Korea and 3-0 was more than a fair result. The Argentina price is holding up but it is, IMO, due to the fact that it's England involved. The class difference should be far too much and I'll be surprised if England can hold out tonight. If they do, well fair enough but I'm happy to go in again on Argentina so the pick is in addition to the one already posted: 5pts Argentina to beat England @4/5

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

I'm doubling my bet on Argentina, based on the Mexico match. Mexico outclasses North Korea and 3-0 was more than a fair result. The Argentina price is holding up but it is, IMO, due to the fact that it's England involved. The class difference should be far too much and I'll be surprised if England can hold out tonight. If they do, well fair enough but I'm happy to go in again on Argentina so the pick is in addition to the one already posted: 5pts Argentina to beat England @4/5

England 0 Argentina 0 - Argentina should have won but England's defence stood firm. Around 6/7pts loss for the day, but I'll update tomorrow. Not too annoyed as I stand by the picks (although doubling a max bet needs to be looked at)

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline A couple of bad decisions meant that I needed to take a break but back with one selection (so far) for today. 20:30 Leopardstown - Dimona 2pts @9/4 This horse took three attempts to win a maiden then came third in her handicap debut. She has been dropped 2lbs for that, which is surprising considering how well she finished the race. She'll enjoy this step up in trip and hopefully Johnny Murtagh can position her in the right place this time. Nantucket Bay has to be respected but I'm hopeful that Dimona will just be a little bit too good.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline St. Patricks v Karpaty Lviv - under 2.5 goals 2.5pts @1.9 The first leg of this tie finished 2-0 to Karpaty and it will take a bit of a miracle for St. Patricks to overturn that. I don't expect them to get anywhere near that, with the Ukrainians likely to come and defend, just keeping their hosts at arms length. St. Pats can't over commit, because one goal really kills the tie. I think that this one could end 0-0 or 1-0 either way but I don't see there being many goals at all, as a poor attack tries to break down a reasonable defence.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

A couple of bad decisions meant that I needed to take a break but back with one selection (so far) for today. 20:30 Leopardstown - Dimona 2pts @9/4 This horse took three attempts to win a maiden then came third in her handicap debut. She has been dropped 2lbs for that, which is surprising considering how well she finished the race. She'll enjoy this step up in trip and hopefully Johnny Murtagh can position her in the right place this time. Nantucket Bay has to be respected but I'm hopeful that Dimona will just be a little bit too good.

St. Patricks v Karpaty Lviv - under 2.5 goals 2.5pts @1.9 The first leg of this tie finished 2-0 to Karpaty and it will take a bit of a miracle for St. Patricks to overturn that. I don't expect them to get anywhere near that, with the Ukrainians likely to come and defend, just keeping their hosts at arms length. St. Pats can't over commit, because one goal really kills the tie. I think that this one could end 0-0 or 1-0 either way but I don't see there being many goals at all, as a poor attack tries to break down a reasonable defence.

Dimona won @5/2 - BOG, so +5pts St. Pats are 1-2 down to Karpaty after 70 mins, so -2pts loss. Overall +3pts for the day, not too bad. Hasn't been a good week really and haven't really made any bets.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Worcester 16:20 Mayor of Kilcock 1pt e/w @15/2 BOG This is a bet based only the market. The horse hasn't been seen for a long time and form figures suggest that it isn't up to much but Mick Quinlan's yard have a history of punting the hell out of horses with exactly this profile. Opened at 25/1 and is now a best price 15/2 so money is flooding in. Might all be nothing but I'll have an interest. 14:10 Lingfield - Jamr 2pts @6/4 BOG Ran very, very green last time out and strayed miles off course when looking like he would win the race. Godolphin know what they are doing though and he should be much better today at Lingfield. Ironic that Wayward Glance is the biggest danger!

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline One more horse today: 20:30 Newmarket - Long Awaited 2pts @6/4 BOG Long Awaited won smartly at Ripon, beating a horse that went out and won next time. He then put in a very credible effort at Chester, when finishing fourth. This race looks far easier, with the rest of the field looking exposed. Roger Varian's 3 year old is still a bit ahead of the handicapper and should prove it today.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Final horse: 14:50 Worcester Geneva Geyser - 2pts @2.35 betfair This horse is two from two in hurdles races and should be capable of claiming another success this afternoon. His two wins came with a bit of style, quickening when asked and he looked like he had plenty to spare. It's a step up in class today but he's been well backed and can hopefully score the win.

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Final horse: 14:50 Worcester Geneva Geyser - 2pts @2.35 betfair This horse is two from two in hurdles races and should be capable of claiming another success this afternoon. His two wins came with a bit of style, quickening when asked and he looked like he had plenty to spare. It's a step up in class today but he's been well backed and can hopefully score the win.

Easy winner but I misread the market. I thought he'd only shorten so took the betfair price that was bigger than any BOG bookies. He went off at 5/2 but it allowed me to get a tasty place bet in at 1.75 (I won't include that in the profit/loss though). +2.5pts

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

Worcester 16:20 Mayor of Kilcock 1pt e/w @15/2 BOG This is a bet based only the market. The horse hasn't been seen for a long time and form figures suggest that it isn't up to much but Mick Quinlan's yard have a history of punting the hell out of horses with exactly this profile. Opened at 25/1 and is now a best price 15/2 so money is flooding in. Might all be nothing but I'll have an interest. 14:10 Lingfield - Jamr 2pts @6/4 BOG Ran very, very green last time out and strayed miles off course when looking like he would win the race. Godolphin know what they are doing though and he should be much better today at Lingfield. Ironic that Wayward Glance is the biggest danger!

Mayor of Kilcock was a pile of crap. Travelled well for about 5f then just went backwards before unseating the rider near the finish when well, well out of contention. Shouldn't have backed based on none of my own information Jamr wasn't much better and didn't even finish in the first three. Wayward Glance won. -4pts for those two. :puke

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline One tennis for tonight: Troicki to beat Isner - 2.5pts @1.8 Isner didn't look good against Blake in the last round and his bad movement was exposed. He'll struggle even more against Troicki, who is a much better player than the American. I think someone in the tennis thread mentioned about retirement and I'm covered for that (as long as I get 1 set I think) but I don't think I'll need it. Troicki dealt comfortably with big serving Anderson in the last round and should be able to do the same to Isner. He leads the head-to-head 2-0. :hope

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline

One tennis for tonight: Troicki to beat Isner - 2.5pts @1.8 Isner didn't look good against Blake in the last round and his bad movement was exposed. He'll struggle even more against Troicki, who is a much better player than the American. I think someone in the tennis thread mentioned about retirement and I'm covered for that (as long as I get 1 set I think) but I don't think I'll need it. Troicki dealt comfortably with big serving Anderson in the last round and should be able to do the same to Isner. He leads the head-to-head 2-0. :hope

Odds on this went up to 1.95. Doubling stake, so another 2.5pts @1.95

[captaincool]

Re: Learning Discipline Having another tennis bet. Sabine Lisicki (+2.5 games) v Vera Zvonareva 2.5pts @1.75 Lisicki has been on fire recently. She's the most upwardly mobile player on the women's tour with her performance at Wimbledon a real breakout one for the 21 year old. She's full of confidence and hitting well. Zonareva won an easy tournament in Baku last week but she doesn't look that great at the moment. She struggles to hold her serve and I think Lisicki will definitely get chances. I'm slightly worried by the 2-0 h2h in favour of Zvonareva, so I'll take the +2.5 on Lisicki, which would have won the last time they played.