MattyNeth Posted June 26, 2005 Author Share Posted June 26, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy :welcome topweight Just checked my 95 selections for last season, and there were 13 away winners. Therefore by laying the away side based on last season you're a winner 82 times, at say 2 pts a bet that 164 pts profit before taking into account those 13 losing bets. The problem is that most of those 13 away winners will be at fairly large odds - if those away winners are at an average of over 8.2 (unlikely) then the system is in loss. Something to investigate I feel. But as you say by putting a filter on potentially eliminates some of this? Have you backtested my findings? If not I'll do it over next few days:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topweight Posted June 26, 2005 Share Posted June 26, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Hi Matty ,no ive not back checked your findings as its very hard and takes a long time to get leaque positions for the said week of bets to check positions in leaques. Ifind that the lower the odds on a seemily odds on home team the odds are crazy on a no hope away team,but from records as i lay other football bets on Betfair ,when a home team is in the range of 1.40 to 1.70 the away odds rest between 7.00 to 5.10 on average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topweight Posted June 26, 2005 Share Posted June 26, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Todays Euro/World Leaques top 6 v Bottom 6 Norway Tipp Start v Bodo/Glimt = 10pts lay Bodo/Glimt x 5.40 Lyn SFK V Aalesund = 10pts lay Aalesund x 7.40 ----------------------------------------------- Swedish 2nd Div Ljungskile v Bodens BK = 10PTS lay Bodens BK X 5.70 ------------------------------------------------ Brazilian 1st Div Botafogo v Figueirense = 10pts lay Figueirense x 8.80 ---------------------------------------------------- Also going to have a sep bank for backing doubles and trebles of home teams. Bank 200pts All prices Bet365 . Botafogo 1.44 Start 1.66 Lyn SFK 1.55 Ljungskile 1.57 Doubles = 6pts /trebles = 4pts out. 10pts in total :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 26, 2005 Author Share Posted June 26, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy ok topweight I'll do some backtesting this week. Good luck with your selections:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 27, 2005 Author Share Posted June 27, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Some very interesting findings after backtesting this. In terms of filtering to start with I'm going to can the Scottish Lower Leagues and maybe even the Scottish Premier, as the 3rd placed team can get turned over (though Hibs won 2 out of 2 in last seasons system). I'm going to look at the odds now Premiership 15 matches 11 homes 4 draws 0 aways 73.3% strikerate £0.34 profit 2.26% yield Championship 14 matches 12 homes 1 draw 1 away 85.7% strikerate £4.12 profit 29.4% yield Division One 15 matches 9 homes 2 draws 4 aways 60% strikerate -1.67 loss -11.13% yield Division Two 14 matches 10 homes 1 draw 3 aways 71.4% strikerate 0.80 profit 5.7% yield Scot Premier 5 matches 4 homes 0 draws 1 away 80% strikerate 0.36 profit 7.2% yield Scottish Lower Leagues (1 to 3) 17 matches 9 wins 4 draws 4 aways 52.9% strikerate -£5.43 loss -31.94% yield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 27, 2005 Author Share Posted June 27, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Filtering out the non Scottish lower league results. Glad I did this analysis. Amazed at that strikerate for home teams with odds 1.31 to 1.40 - just 60%? If odds on home side up to 1.30 9 out of 10 Strikerate 90% £1.07 profit 10.7% yield If odds on home side between 1.31 to 1.40 12 out of 20 Strikerate 60% -£3.46 loss -17.3%yield If odds on home side between 1.41 to 1.50 10 out of 15 Strikerate 66.7% -£0.25 loss -1.67% yield If odds on home side between 1.51 to 1.60 10 out of 12 Strikerate 83.3% £3.46 profit 28.83% yield If odds on home side between 1.61 to 1.70 8 out of 13 Strikerate 61.5% £0.03 profit 0.2% yield If odds on home side between 1.71+ 3 out of 3 Strikerate 100% £2.19 profit 73% yield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 27, 2005 Author Share Posted June 27, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy So by filtering out the Scottish leagues we have the following results 73 matches 52 home wins Strikerate: 71.2% Profit: £3.10 Yield: 4.25% By further filtering out the games where the home game starts at odds of less than 1.50 36 matches 28 home wins Strikerate: 77.77% Profit: £8.18 Yield 22.72% Any views? I'm inclined to think that last season's poor performance on English divisions where the home team started between 1.31 and 1.50 is more of an anomoly? Despite the 3 out of 3 record where the home team started at 1.71 or above I may cap the odds at 1.69? Also, when is a good time to start this system. After 3 games, 10 games? The results above are from Jan 1st to end of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cains Posted June 27, 2005 Share Posted June 27, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Hey Been lurking on this thread for a while.. Now i think i have to give my opinion... I think you have to wait until 6 games played before you start looking at this.. Maybe even wait 10games. You have to have an average standing on this.. Maybe we should do some more backtesting, from last season, to see where about the profit begins.. There must be a point where we see a great difference between two weeks... Also.. love the idea to remove everything below @1.50 Agree with you on removing lower leagues from scotland.. And then take some european leagues in instead.. So what to take and how many teams.. top6 vs bottom6 / top4 vs bottom4 or what... Again we should do some backtesting on this.. To see what results we got from previus years.. Of course im ready to help out here.. As i can use it for my other small systems ive got. :tongue2 So we have to take look at this, and talk togheter so we dont make it on the same leagues at the same time.. So find out if we should talk pm or chat... Then we look at it.. Maybe i have a program that can do it all automatic. Will just look into this when i got some time.. Maybe not until weekend.. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 29, 2005 Author Share Posted June 29, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Hi Cains - agree I think the system should start after 10 games. That gives a clearer picture of things. I'm not sure I can do anymore backtesting as we don't have the tables from week to week. Again, I'm not sure we can further filter down to top 4 vs bottom 4. Again we don't have the tables. I'm not actually sure this will alter things much. Maybe go top 5 v bottom 5? Maybe do a separate one for the European top flight leagues - France, Spain, Italy, Germany? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saul Hudson Posted June 29, 2005 Share Posted June 29, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Im loving this thread! Its getting interesting. good look topweight! Matty, have u bacjtested you system doin the perms? I was thinking maybe doin all doubles and trebles, on days with more games maybe quads, i dont think doin all perms would help things, but i think they maybe some profit in doubles and trebles. Might be worth a look, i would do it for you but i havent got the tie at the mo. Saul:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cains Posted June 29, 2005 Share Posted June 29, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Matty.. I will look at the backtesting thing.. :ok I think i got all the data i need.. Just has to take it out for every week, to see what it looks like... hmm.. Should be possible.. But i aint gonna get time for it the next week or so.. LOADS of work at the moment. :o So dont got much spare time these days.. But hopefully within next 14-21days, i will find enough time for this.. I will just do backtesting for the Prem league, championship, and then 2 other top leagues in europe.. If i can actually backtest. ;) Ill be back with more later.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 29, 2005 Author Share Posted June 29, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Saul/Cains - let's see if I can find some "spare capacity" at work tomorrow to have a look at the doubles or trebles side of things. :rollin There is certainly potential there. I'm thinking of doing a separate thread for the English Leagues and a separate ones for the European leagues. May be worth if we can start on some of the summer leagues that are already well under way as a pilot? Ireland, Sweden, Australia, Finland, Norway, Russia? I'll have a hunt around to see how far gone we are in these leagues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 29, 2005 Author Share Posted June 29, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy All from their respective top flight divisions, as of 29th June Norway 14 teams, 12 matches played each Russia 16 teams, between 11 and 15 matches played each Finland 14 teams, between 10 and 11 matches played each Sweden 14 teams, 12 matches played each Ireland 12 teams, between 12 and 15 matches played each Looks like we can start a pilot run. :D With the lower number of teams in each division comapred to the English leagues I think top 3 v bottom 3 is sufficient. Just need to do the analysis on the doubles/trebles etc before selecting that strategy. For the next set of fixtures these are the only teams that are top 3 vs bottom 3 but the odds do not meet the criteria though I am inclined to amend the odds range to 1.41+. Thoughts? 3rd July - Valerenga v Odd Grenland 1.44 3rd July - Lokomotiv Moscow v Terek 1.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cains Posted June 30, 2005 Share Posted June 30, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Looks like we can start a pilot run. :D With the lower number of teams in each division comapred to the English leagues I think top 3 v bottom 3 is sufficient. Just need to do the analysis on the doubles/trebles etc before selecting that strategy. For the next set of fixtures these are the only teams that are top 3 vs bottom 3 but the odds do not meet the criteria though I am inclined to amend the odds range to 1.41+. Thoughts? My thought for this is, that we can not make a top3 vs bottom3 in any leagues... I think the only way we will find odds above what we want if it @1.4 or @1.5 it has to be place4-6 vs bottom 3 or bottom6... But what are our plans?? Should it be both home and away games in this one?? Couse then we can problably find some odds when they are away.. But also bigger chance that bet will loose... I personaly prefer only to play on home teams.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted July 1, 2005 Author Share Posted July 1, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy cains said My thought for this is, that we can not make a top3 vs bottom3 in any leagues... I think the only way we will find odds above what we want if it @1.4 or @1.5 it has to be place4-6 vs bottom 3 or bottom6... But what are our plans?? Should it be both home and away games in this one?? Couse then we can problably find some odds when they are away.. But also bigger chance that bet will loose... I personaly prefer only to play on home teams.. Hi Cains - I think stick with top 6 v bottom 6, or maybe go top 5 v bottom 5. There are the odd occasion where top get 1st or 2nd v bottom or second bottom and sometimes odds are 1.41+ - definitely worth doing I want to stick to homes, but it might be worth testing a system on aways - by laying the home team. The potential problem is that your exposure is that much higher due to the large odds of a lowly team at home to a top side. Worth testing in our pilot summer system nonetheless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saul Hudson Posted July 1, 2005 Share Posted July 1, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy So by the loks of your table then matty, perms may be a profitable addition for next season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted July 3, 2005 Author Share Posted July 3, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Saul - it certainly does look pretty good doesn't it:D Two games this weekend 3rd July - Lokomotiv Moscow v Terek 1.25. Doesn't fit in system, but worth looking at anyway. Loko won 4-0 4th July - Valerenga v Odd Grenland 1.44. Play Monday night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted July 5, 2005 Author Share Posted July 5, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Valerenga 3-0 Odd Grenland 1.44 Pilot Top v Bottom (odds 1.41+) Starting bank 100pts Bets: 1 Strikerate: 1/1 100% Profit: +0.44 Current bank: 100.44 Yield: 44% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted July 10, 2005 Author Share Posted July 10, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy From the weekend Derry 3-2 Finn Harps 1.58 Starting bank 100pts Bets: 2 Strikerate: 2/2 100% Profit: +1.02 Current bank: 101.02 Yield: 51% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted July 11, 2005 Share Posted July 11, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Matty, this is a great thread, truly this is what the PL is for. I'm going to be keeping a very close on on this from here on in. You seem to have some very interesting results. I'm actually in the process of developing my own system at present, I call it my net goal index system, it's basis is that you maintain a value for net goal difference in the last 6 games for each team for example (over only 3 games), a 2-0 win followed by a 3-1 win followed by a 1-0 defeat gives a NGI value of 3. You divide the home teams NGI value, by the away teams the higher the result the better, a value of 1.5 triggers a home win bet. Anything above 1.75 is taken in trebs and permed. A result below of .42 or below triggers an away win. 0.33 and below is taken in trebs and is again permed. I looked at this a couple of years ago and had some encouraging results, I've not had time to fully back test this, but intend to run this only in leagues with some quality, my initial test bed will be EPL & Championship. If it goes well, I'll extend it the French and Spainish league. I'll stick a thread up at the start of the season and let you know how it goes. Goes without saying I'll base this on 1pt level stakes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted July 15, 2005 Author Share Posted July 15, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Good luck with that Fools:hope With the Top v Bottom Euro Pilot, as I'm only going top 3 v bottom 3 on just the 5 leagues (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Ireland and Russia) there's not many selections at present. The Austrian season started last week so another there. This week just the one falls into the criteria Djurgarden v Sundsvall. Current odds on Betfair 1.41 Throughout the season I'm going to be running 3 separate systems on this thread, rather than clogging up the forum with separate threads. After the backtesting and half a season's analysis in the UK I'll run the doubles/trebles top vs bottom (top 5 vs bottom 5) strategy in the UK, which produced great results. I'll also do a single strategy for the UK, and a single strategy for all European leagues, which is currently the Euro Pilot System, which I'll continue when the other Euro leagues kick off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted July 19, 2005 Author Share Posted July 19, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Good start so far Djurgarden v Sundsvall 1.41 Djurgarden won 4-0:) Starting bank 100pts Bets: 3 Strikerate: 3/3 100% Profit: +1.43 Current bank: 101.43 Yield: 47.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted July 23, 2005 Author Share Posted July 23, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Another one last night. This time in Ireland Cork 3-0 Shelbourne 1.50 Starting bank 100pts Bets: 4 Strikerate: 4/4 100% Profit: +1.93 Current bank: 101.93 Yield: 48.25% Next Game 27th July - Djurgarden- Landskrona The Austrian, Swiss and Danish leagues have also kicked off now, so when they reach 8 games in they'll be added Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted July 28, 2005 Author Share Posted July 28, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Disappointing result last night. Djurgarden lost 0-1 Starting bank 100pts Bets: 5 Strikerate: 4/5 80% Profit: +0.93 Current bank: 100.93 Yield: 18.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted July 28, 2005 Share Posted July 28, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy hi matty, only just noticed this thread. keep it up! can i ask what would happen to your yield if you only looked at epl games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted July 29, 2005 Share Posted July 29, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy hi matty, just done some backtesting if you are interested, on the last 3 seasons in the epl, on odds of 1.41+, with a minimum of 10 games played, on top 6 vs bottom 6: ALL 3 seasons 24 bets 14 wins 58.3% strike -7.6% yield -1.83 profit let me know if you want any of these variables changing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted August 3, 2005 Author Share Posted August 3, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Interesting stuff again muppet - thanks.From my analysis of the Premier League in 2005 there were just 8 games that had the home team of 1.41 or above Liverpool 0-0 Blackburn 1.43 Bolton 1-1 Southampton 1.61 Everton 1-1 Blackburn 1.66 Liverpool 3-1 Fulham 1.50 Bolton 1-0 Norwich 1.53 Everton 1-0 Norwich 1.53 Everton 4-0 Crystal Palace 1.66 Middlesboro 1-0 Blackburn 1.72 On the small analysis there was a tiny loss of 0.06 on 8 bets. If including all the games at odds of less than 1.40 there was a slight profit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted August 3, 2005 Author Share Posted August 3, 2005 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted August 5, 2005 Author Share Posted August 5, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Three for the weekend, but only Valarenga qualifies for the system:hope Fri. 5 August Cork City v Waterford United 7.45 pm 1.38 Velerenga v Tromso 1.49 (Betfair) MyPa v Jaro 1.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted August 8, 2005 Author Share Posted August 8, 2005 Re: The top vs bottom strategy Fri. 5 August Cork City v Waterford United 7.45 pm 1.38 1-1:( but not in the system due to the odds Velerenga v Tromso 1.49 (Betfair) 1-1 :( Unfortuneatly in the system MyPa v Jaro 1.35 0-2:( but not in the system due to the odds Well could have been worse without the filtering Starting bank 100pts Bets: 5 Strikerate: 4/5 80% Profit: +0.93 Current bank: 100.93 Yield: 18.6% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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