Flat Racing: 3rd Jul 2011

[RussP]

3.15 Ayr 11 runner event here, this a lowly Class 6, 9f event. A really poor race and only one of these has matched to get its head in front in their last 6 starts and that's the one I'm siding with: Spavento (9/2 Victor Chandler BOG) - I think this is a good EW bet to nothing here. Has a poor win record of 1 from 34 but is still the only horse to win in its previous 6 outings. Despite its win rate, has 14 placed efforts which is pretty decent, whilst in this grade its record increases to 1 win and 2 placed from 4 races. Won its only race 2 months ago off 5lb lower and has run creditably in its 4 races since, albeit in higher grades and off higher marks (even than todays). I like the jockey booking, think the drop in grade is a big positive, stable is going ok and this longer trip is sure to suit. Ran a good race off 2lb higher recently at this track and the long straight is again in this ones favour. 9/2 is a fair price in a terrible heat and I feel this one will go very well.

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing: 3rd Jul 2011 decided to do a race today to see if i can get some confidence back 2.45 Ayr 7f Frequency - has won off 2lb higher, doesnt often run over this distance and trainer yet to record a victory here in his short career (0-5). Good jockey in Makin but the trip is putting me off Beckermet - veteran now, used to be listed class, recent efforts indicate another win is just around the corner although runs off 66 (59 with 7lb claim on board) but last win was off 56. Did win off 109 in his heyday and trainer enjoying a good spell of late and record here is 4-35. May need a slight bit of cut to figure Music festival - still looks a tad high in the weights this one but Goldie is in decent form and Tudhope much improved this season, both around 9% SR at this track in career Berbice - hasn't won for a while and interestimng coming back to 7f now after a spell over 6f. Has placed off higher marks so in with a shout with a good young jockey on board. Whispered times - been well beaten recently in slightly better company but seems to save best for Newcastle. Hell bender - seems much better suited to a slower surface and if it was, this would enter my calculations today off this mark. Burnwynd boy - price is possibly too big to ignore and showed promise when 3rd at Newcastle 1st time up for Ian Semple, however the horse didnt seem to want to go past others that day and perhaps is slightly ungenuine. Master Leon - seems consistent over the trip and ground is fine also, if able to transfer his AW form to turf, could have a decent shout. Chambers - been well beaten recently, cant see a return to form today although both trainer and jockey have decent Strike rates here Shunkawakhan - has one of my fav apprentices on board, down to a mark of 51 for this race, perhaps not up to this having last won off a mark of 45. Chicamia - all bets form over further and not often running over this distance Balance on time - no real form to think of so not being considered Conclusion Think it safe to keep the better jockeys on side in this race, and i have 3 Master Leon, Berbice and Music festival. I am favouring Master Leon at 12/1 as the main bet so to split up 0.5pts stake, i have gone for 2.5pts MAster Leon 12/1 1.5pts Music festival 5/2 1pt Berbice 8/1 Music festival is the cover bet in terms of getting the stake back.