Speed on the Sand !

[SmallTimePunter]

I dont know if anyone else has found this but im finding a good RP topspeed figure is required to win on the A/W at the shorter trips 5f - 1mile ish. Ive been making a good profit of late from backing horses with good speed figures. Some criteria could maybe be added to this to get a few selections, might give it a go. Any thoughts more than welcome. Cheers !

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! Heres a few that stand out for tommorow.. 12.20 Ling - HIGH CHART - Lost her way for George Margarson after successful 2yo debut but latest fourth in 6f seller here on second start for this yard was a bit better and should be suited by today´s extra furlong. 10pts Win - WON 3/1 - 40pts Returned 1.20 Ling - Longer trip so speed not so much a factor but FISBY stands out. Improved form at Wolverhampton of late and had race won all way up straight over extended 1m1f last time; this is higher grade but should appreciate the trip. 10pts Win - Nowhere _ -10pts 3.20 Ling - PERUVIAN STYLE - Yet to finish out of frame in four runs here but this is good deal more competitive than claimer he was second in over C&D last week. 5pts win Nowhere _ -5pts 12.40 Sth - CHORUS - Goes through periods of being in/out of form these days and fair efforts lately, including when travelling well for a long way here on Monday; not as good as she was but still up to taking this. 10pts Win 2nd 4/1 _ -10pts 3.40 Sth - SET ALIGHT - Stable going well of late and this filly showing signs of life at a low level; cheekpieces on for the first time and one of the more interesting runners. 5 pts Win 2nd 15/2 _ - 10pts Good few to be getting on with for the first day but well see how it goes !!! Balls up probably but worth a shot !!! As well as speed ive taken into account stable form, recent runs etc.. 40 pts Staked - fingers crossed !!! 40 pts returned - started well with a 3/1 winner.. winner from the 2nds would have been nice, rule out the fillys i think Ralphie!

[ralphie7]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! Smalltimepunter beware the filly's mate on A/W don't know why but i found they are at a big disadvantage on the A/W someone on here told me of a Website that had stats on this to prove it but i can't for the life of me remember what it was. good luck with this mate :hope very interested in how it goes. ralphie

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! Thanks for that ralphie definitley something to bear in mind i think, started well with a 3/1 winner lets hope it continues. If it goes ok maybe just get rid of all fillys to increase the strikerate.

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! 1.40 Wolves - SALON PRIVE - Is the pick on official ratings, has been running well and, although down to this trip for the first time, is well drawn for one that can make the running; no surprise to see him run well in this company. 10pts WIN - WON 6/4 - 25PTS RETURNED 2.10 Wolves - ADANTINO - 6 and 7f winner on Polytrack at Lingfield last year and not disgraced last week; no surprise to see him run well from fair draw if as effective on this slighty different surface. 5pts e/w - 2ND 7/1 - 13.75 PTS RETURNED 3.10 Wolves - SHIELALIGH - Handles this surface and shaped as though return to this trip would suit when fair third over 6f here last time (second has since won); well drawn, decent chance at the weights and leading player. 5pts WIN (filly) 2ND 7/2 - 5PTS, FILLY LET US DOWN !! 25pts Staked.. 33.75PTS RETURNED :clap Running profit, 8.75PTS

[ralphie7]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! SmallTimePunter found that article mate hope this is some use to you GOOD LUCK TOMORROW :hope really hope this goes well ralphie Colts vs. Fillies If you think that there are too many runners in a race and you would like to eliminate most of the contenders quickly and accurately, or if your system bets are high in quantity but lack quality, then try this simple method of cutting a racecard down to a manageable size: Do not consider female horses If you are into laying on the betting exchanges and are looking for a solid group of horses to 'Bismarck' then try this simple method: Only consider female horses For whatever reason, females really are bad bets on the all weather.

all weather races containing all genders

Gender	Wins	Runs	Win%	I.V.	ROI%
Colts	1237	8933	14%	1.46	-16%
Fillies	938	13965	7%	0.71	-52%
Geldings	1824	18845	10%	1.02	-25%
Horses	105	1037	10%	1.07	-20%
Mares	111	1796	6%	0.65	-50%

In this table we are looking at the distribution of winners for each gender. The races analysed contained at least one filly and one colt. We need to look at the impact value to compensate for many of the same gender running in a single race. Colts are the best gender to follow on the sand. The impact value of 1.46 is twice that of fillies. Horses (males, non gelded aged 5 and upwards) are the second best, followed closely by geldings. Mares (females aged 5 and upwards) perform just as bad as fillies. So this is a clear indication that the boys are winning the battle of the sexes on the sand. But what about on the turf? Fillies are the weaker sex there too aren't they?

turf races containing fillies and colts

Gender	Wins	Runs	Win%	I.V.	ROI%
Colts	6972	64149	11%	1.27	-29%
Fillies	4921	63040	8%	0.91	-41%
Geldings	5430	74246	7%	0.86	-33%
Horses	381	4778	8%	0.93	-29%
Mares	441	6303	7%	0.82	-33%

On the flat turf fillies are again the weaker sex compared to colts, but not by as much as on the all weather. There is a gender and weight for age allowance which exists to compensate for the differences in speed and stamina abilities between the male and female species. Whilst the allowances work, to a degree on the turf (fillies are on par with geldings, horses and mares), the all weather allowances most definitely need amending

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! Cheers fot that mate, im amazed at the stats, didnt think it would be anything like that much !!, i think ill rule them out altogether or keep the stakes to an absolute minimum if one really stands out, thats why ive only gone 5ptsShielaligh. Cheers for the good luck an all, i hope it works as well, thought it was worth sharing as in the last few weeks its been very effective for me. Well see how it goes anyway... :hope

[ralphie7]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! this is looking very promising mate a nice profit today :clap

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! 2.00 Wolves - ZIET D ALSACE - Mainly respectable run of efforts on Polytrack since the autumn, second in Lingfield seller on Wednesday; should be a factor again. 5PTS WIN - 5pts 2.30 Wolves - MOAYED - Speed figures suggest it should have far too much toe for these, Turn of foot has seen him develop into very smart handicapper on AW this winter at 5f/7f but can he reproduce it back over this longer trip with no guarantee of the strong pace that suits? 10PTS WIN + 35pts 3.30 Wolves - THE LORD - Generally found it tough going since 2002; not disgraced from out of the handicap on recent AW debut at Southwell but again finds himself wrong at weights today and looks more a 5f performer. 5PTS E/W - 10pts 4.00 Wolves - RAFFERTY - Has not won for nearly two years but gone to good AW yard and best effort for some time when runner-up at Southwell on New Year´s Day when seeming to appreciate decent pace; potentially well in here (due to go up 4lb tomorrow) but it remains to be seen if this test suits so well. 10PTS WIN -10pts 35 PTS STAKED :hope MINUS 10PTS TODAY :sad :sad Should pick up !, maybe Wolves isnt as effective as Southwell and Lingfield ?

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! Try to get back on track today ! 1.40 LING - ACCENDERE - Consistent hold-up gelding who was narrowly beaten in 0-50 classified at Wolverhampton time before last; not beaten far in tongue tie most recently and now visored; trip may be on short side now and a little disturbing that he showed nothing here first two outings (might have needed experience). 5pts E/W 2.15 LING - ENNA - Suited by return to this trip when winning Banded event at Kempton in September for Stef Liddiard; has form over C&D but minor role most likely unless leading contenders underperform. 5Pts Win 2.45 LING - ALI BRUCE - Improved form when running out clear-cut winner of classifed events at Southwell and here on last two starts, but had run of race on both occasions and now 11lb higher than last time he ran in a handicap which could prove his undoing. 10Pts win 3.20 LING - CAONA - Expensive purchase who responded well to forceful ride when showing improved form to win 7f Wolverhampton nursery last time with cheekpieces tried, but this looks more competitive. 10Pts Win 3.50 LING - KEMPSEY - Still a maiden but has been knocking on the door here and at Wolverhampton (closely weighted with Ashes); likely to be thereabouts again with blinkers replacing visor worn last three outings. 10pts Win 45pts Staked !! :hope :hope :hope -45 today :( was looking good to start with it ill keep em going for a while longer, there was nothing speedy winning at all today ??? Cheers

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! See if i can get back some of those losses !! 1.30-QUINCANNON - 6f maiden winner at Southwell on penultimate start and ran right up to best from 6lb higher mark on handicap debut last time; solid claims if as effective on this different surface. 10PTS WIN 2.30-COMEINTOTHESPACE - Not the most consistent but improved when second to subsequent winner Grezie over 1m at Lingfield last time; fair claims if as effective on this surface 5PTS WIN 3.00-MASTER THEO - Took time to get his act together but on upgrade judged on his wins in classifed events here in cheekpieces on last two starts; this is more competitive but going right way and today´s trip suits so has to be respected. 10PTS WIN 4.30-NOBLE MOUNT - Won Banded event at Lingfield and similar level in defeat in handicap behind Whinhill House (runs 4.00) last time; well drawn and fair claims under Richard Hughes if handling this surface. 10PTS WIN 35PTS STAKED - Hope these get us back on track !! :\

[ralphie7]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! Hi mate a tad unlucky today Master Theo was leading inside final furlong still think it shows promise good luck tomorrow ralphie

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Speed on the Sand ! Thanks again Ralphie, yeah i was ready to collect with Master Theo !!, -10PTS for yesterday !! 1.50 Southwell - FASYLITATOR - Been running well in nurseries, off the mark over 1m here in November; this furlong shorter trip not a problem and has to be respected. 10PTS WIN 2.20 Southwell - EL PALMAR - Backed down to favouritism on first start since June in 7f seller here last week but had to settle for second, just ahead of rivals rated over 10lb inferior, and clearly more required back in handicap company tackling new trip. 5PTS WIN 3.20 Southwell - TIME N TIME AGAIN - Much improved in cheekpieces on fibresand early last year; had some tough/unsuitable tasks this winter but suggested he was on the way back when fourth at Wolverhampton last time and enters the reckoning 10PTS WIN 3.50 Southwell - MANDINKA - Much improved in modest company over C&D of late, second win at Banded level when conceding lumps of weight all round last week and asked to do just enough; going right way and has to be respected. 20PTS WIN - VERY KEEN ON THIS ONE ! 45 PTS STAKED :hope :hope