Sco Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 I have an idea that i am trying to test out for tennis betting. Iv been ploughing through some stats and gone on a few hunches, starting off small to see if system works. Anyway here are all the bets (from bet365) Nicolas Kiefer to beat Sjeng Schalken @1.33 1pt Thomas Enqvist to beat Raemon Sluiter @ 1.83 1pt Cyril Saulnier to beat Paul Baccanello @ 1.28 1pt Accum (5) for Kiefer, Saulnier, Johansson, Taylor Dent and Malisse for them all to win. 0.5pts As I said its just starting off small to start to see how it goes.:tongue2 Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Here are a few bets that have caught my eye : AAPT Championship (Adelaide) T. Berdych to beat J. Melzer (2.00 Ladbrokes) - Berdych has probably achieved less than Melzer(he's somewhat younger as well), but Berdych is clearly someone who has the beating of many a player on his day. Afterall, Berdych sent Federer packing back at Athens 2004 and clearly this should be a 50-50 match at best. No reason for Melzer to be the favourite here IMO. N. Kiefer to beat S. Schalken (1.40) - No doubt, if Kiefer can pick up where he left off last season, he should walk this one. Chennai Open R. Schuettler to beat O. Patience (1.36) - Schuettler was an Aussie Open finalist back in 2003 and although he had a slight dip in form, I should still imagine him having the edge in this one as he should just have too much for Patience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Good luck with these, Sco. Anyway, if I could tell ya something, your starting bank should be say 10 pts, surely higher than the initial outlay. Or - if you don't wanna use the bank, then just start off zero points to show if you're in black or red figures.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Hrbaty, Dominik to bt Philippoussis, Mark Odds: 1.75 H2H: 0-2 Philippoussis 61 67 67 - Paris Indoor 2000 (Carpet) Philippoussis 64 67 46 - World Team Cup 1999 (Clay) We all know how bad Philippoussis was last year, he has dropped out of the top 100 in the rankings. He can't be as bad this year, but this is a very tough start for him. Mark hasn't played since Tokyo in October where he lost very lamely to Zib. Appently he has been working very hard in the time off, and has also been training with John McEnroe. At the Australian Open last year, Mac was commentating on a match between Philippousis and Ancic, and he was demanding that Mark come into the net more. So I feel that we will see Philippoussis serve and volley more than usual in this match. Early in the season, he will certainly be rusty, and giving Hrbaty a target like that is a very bad idea. However, if he decides to stay back, I can't see him having the consistancy to rally with Hrbaty, who is very quick and will get a lot of balls back. In a recent interview Mark admitted that he is still not fully fit, and isn't expecting to be in top shape until the middle of the year, and that he isn't expecting much from the Australian season. But we also so last year how well Hrbaty played in the Australian season, he won the tournaments in Adelaide and Auckland. This is a testiment to the work he does in the off season, and how well he is prepared for the start of the season. The H2H does not concern me, as these matches were a long time ago, when Philippoussis was in much better condition. The odds suggest that Hrbaty has a 57% chance of winning this match, however, I believe he has more like a 65-70% chance making this a good value play to start the season with. Berdych, Tomas to bt Melzer, Jurgen Odds: 2.00 For a few years now, Melzer has been considered to have a lot of talent but lacking consistency. Well, he has had time, and hasn't made it into the big time. His lack of mental toughness and the lack of a big weapon will leave him stuck in top 50 wilderness. On the other hand, Berdych is the real deal. We saw towards the end of last year what he is capable of, after reaching the quarter finals of the Olympics (including wins over Mayer, Robredo and Federer!). He followed this up with a quarter final run at the US Open (including wins over Bjorkman and Youzhny) and won his first ATP title at Palermo. I am sure he will back those results up this year and get into the top 20. I feel him game is at a higher level than Melzers. Berdych has a bigger serve, and more consistancy and power from the back of the court. The only edge that Melzer has is in experience, but I don't see this being enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Crap, forgot the bookie. Hrbaty at Canbet and Berdych at Centrebet and a few others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 2, 2005 Author Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Thanks for the tips, and the link you posted, looked really good:clap The Philippoussis game I was umming and arghhing over, just because of how dangerous he can be. Il see how he does this game and consider it for the future. Anyway Il let you know what the profit or loses are from this anyway. Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 2, 2005 Share Posted January 2, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Quite agree with the Hrbaty pick, Philip. was absolutely awful and carried an injury for a long time last summer, never recovers without probs, will be rusty and Hrbaty usually has a pretty good start of the year. Odds dropping at least a little bit about everywhere. Berdych can win, and the odds are quite friendly, just can't pull the trigger as last season may well have been a fluke as in the case of many a Czech player "from the same stable". Will sit this one out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 3, 2005 Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Well Hrbaty went well winning 7-5 6-2 however Berdych was disappointing losing 4-6 6-4 3-6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 3, 2005 Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting :clap:cow:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 3, 2005 Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Some more for tonight/tommorow morning: Davydenko, Nikolay to bt Karlovic, Ivo H2H: 1-1 Davydenko 63 75 - Heilbronn (2003) Karlovic 76 64 - Germany F10 (1999) It's always an interesting game when Karlovic is involved and it is always about how well he serves. I think first match of the season he is quite vunerable and struggles to get his timing right. I also think the courts in Adelaide are slow enough to hold his serve up and give plenty of chances for the returner. Davydenko has a very solid game and will get a lot of balls back. He moves very well from the back of the court and will make Karlovic hit a lot of volleys. Davydenko won the tournament in Moscow late last year indoors to show that he can play on a surface quicker than clay and also beat Rusedski who plays a similar game to Karlovic. Odds: 1.72 Bet365 Blake, James to bt Wessels, Peter H2H: 1-1 Blake 64 61 - Newport (1999) Wessels 64 61 - Washington (1999) I see this tournament and in particular this match as an opportunity for Blake to get back on track. Everyone knows about his well documented off courts problems last year and hopefully he is over those. Blake enjoys the conditions in Australia, he reached the 4th round of the Australian Open last year before losing to Safin in 4 tight sets and the 4th round in 2003 losing to Schuettler in 4 sets. We also saw his potential last year at Indian Wells when he readed the quarter fianls. This moved him up to 15th in the race which, to be perfectly honest, is a level that his opponent Wessels will never ever reach. Wessels has already played a tie here this week, which is an advantage, however he was not impressive. He had a very tight win over Wayne Black who isn't really a singles player then lost the dead rubber doubles match. The analysis really hinges on Blake. The team environment will be good for his state of mind and he will be happy to come back to where he has had victories. He won the Hopman Cup in 2003 and 2004 (playing with S Williams and Davenport respectively). His W/L record in singles play here is 7/4 which is impressive considering he has had wins over such players as; Safin, Santoro, Novak, Hewitt and Robredo. Odds: 1.73 StanJames Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted January 3, 2005 Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting AAPT Championship (Adelaide) : 5 pts on P Starace to beat J Benneteau (2.37 Ladbrokes) Benneteau is a pretty good for the clay court, but his performances on other surfaces do leave a bit to be desired. While Starace is an equally inexperienced player, I thought he has shown glimpses of what he could be capable of delivering on his day as he pushed Safin very close when they met at Roland Garros last year. While he's not a shoo-in here, there is definitely value on the 2.37 available IMO and I'm sure he'll be give Benneteau a very good run for his money. 10 pts on X Malisse to beat A Martin (1.53 Ladbrokes) Martin is someone whom I have made a good few bob from over the years and is clearly someone who has hardly got a record that's hardly anywhere decent for a player of his experience and pedigree (having made the third round, the furthest he has progressed, just three times in 26 attempts at Grand Slams). Malisse, on the other hand, has beaten a few top 15 players and he looked increasingly more solid as the year went on in 2004. In spite of Malisse's seemingly less-than-impressive hardcourt career W-L record (48.8%), it's hard to overlook the fact Martin is just about worse off in every sense imaginable (his career W-L record on hardcourt stands at 41.5%). I can just see him being too strong for Martin so long as he doesn't suffer from early season hangovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 3, 2005 Author Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Well not a bad start I must say. All came through winners, except the accumulator which I'm still waiting on, but Malisse I fancy to win and Johansson at such a big favourite should win too. I also put a double on for Kiefer to win and Johansson to win for 1.5pts, making the total expenditure for the day 5pts. Nicolas Kiefer to beat Sjeng Schalken @1.33 1pt :nana Thomas Enqvist to beat Raemon Sluiter @ 1.83 1pt :nana Cyril Saulnier to beat Paul Baccanello @ 1.28 1pt :nana Possibly should have gone with the phili game as well but hey, at least there were no losers... When the others come through il post up by new bank role, and place some bets for tonights games, and the Starace tip is tempting...il have a think. Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 3, 2005 Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Well done Sco :clap I was actually thinking of making a play on Benneteau. I make it a 65:35 game, so the general 1.57 wasn't quite enough to tempt me, find a 1.66 and I'd have to reconsider. Good luck on Starace :clap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 3, 2005 Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Wow, Schuettler got his ass whipped. Thought he might be getting some form back towards the end of last year. Guess not. Oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted January 3, 2005 Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Guess there's always a risk for season-opening encounters, really - you honestly wouldn't know which players are still on holiday mood! :tongue2 To be fair, I think Malisse really stands out for me simply because I don't see Martin being in his class at all - Malisse should still walk this one on second gear unless he's still plagued by injuries. Great shout for Enqvist, sco - honestly, I thought that one was just too close to call... Anyone thinks Calleri is worth a shot at 2.10? His form at the tail-end of last season was pretty impressive for its worth and should he pick up where he left off, he could really give Nieminen a closer game than his price would suggest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 3, 2005 Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Calleri's form was rather poor at tour level - he hadn't won consective matches since April in Barcelona. However, Nieminen's play was also average towards the end of last year, with the only bright point in China where he beat Dent and Nalbandian before losing to Safin. The conditions don't really favour either player, and both did pretty well here last year. Nieminen serves a bit better, has a bit more juice from the back but Calleri will make a lot of balls and on his day can be awesome. I call it 55:45 to Nieminen which is 1.81 - 2.22. Just saw 1.98 at Betfair so I'll take some of that. 4pts Nieminen at 1.98 (Betfair) Note: My other two plays (Davydenko and Blake are also 4pts) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 3, 2005 Author Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Hi. Just wondering if anyone has an excell spreadsheet for tennis bets and results that calculates profits, stakes etc, that I could use? I am having difficulties getting the function bits to work to automatoically calculate the totals. Thanks if anyone can help Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted January 3, 2005 Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting While at it, I thought it might be worth checking out Monfils (2.75) to take out Gaudio in the Qatar Open. We know all about Gaudio, but Monfils is clearly one to look out for in the years ahead. The French up-and-coming youngster has performed impressively since he broke onto the scene at the end of last year when he beat Enqvist before losing 2-1 to Hewitt at the Paris Masters. Gaudio, on the other hand, is not a massively impressive hardcourt player with a 5-10 W-L h2h. I somehow sense value in this one. 7 pts Monfils to beat Gaudio @ 2.75 (Ladbrokes) By the way, Calleri's odds has dropped to evens at Ladbrokes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 3, 2005 Author Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting the calleri game for me is too close to call. So not going to play that one. I think I may be putting a few more pts on mallise as am almost certain that he will win. I might even combine it in a treble with hewitt as despite his crap odds is surely going to win and should boost the odds a little. Il post back up when i get the results in, and if I post up any more selections. PS if anyone can help with my spreadsheet problem, either reply, PM, or email me at [email protected] Cheers Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 3, 2005 Author Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Got two more selections for tonights tennis. Both from bet365. Xavier Malisse to beat Alberto Martin @1.50 3pts Julien Benneteau to beat Potito Starace @1.53 Lleyton Hewitt to beat Arnaud Clement @1.14 1pt as a double (double brings odds to about 1.7 i think) Well wish me luck:hope Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 3, 2005 Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Wow, a lot of faith being put into a guy who lost 17 out of 26 first round matches last year. Yeah he should have too much for Martin, but don't put too much on:\. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 3, 2005 Author Share Posted January 3, 2005 Re: Tennis betting I know what you mean. This one is just a hunch I have, which probably means it will lose, but i have my fingers crossed. Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 4, 2005 Author Share Posted January 4, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Well the faith seems to have paid off. :ok Xavier Malisse to beat Alberto Martin @1.50 3pts:nana Julien Benneteau to beat Potito Starace @1.53 :nana Lleyton Hewitt to beat Arnaud Clement @1.14 1pt as a double:nana Also my 0.5pts accumulator came in to earn me 2.28pts.:nana All in all I'm a happy man:D Starting bank = 10pts Current bank = 15.51pts Profit = 5.51pts Yield = 64% Il post back up when I have some more selections Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Well done Sco and edkth (hope you got some on Calleri) :clap For me, Blake won easily :D (6-1 7-6) however Nieminen lost straightforwardly:@. Davydenko is on court now but I don't have any scores. Anyway, here is a play for tommorow: PATIENCE to bt Tabara @ 2.25 (WillHill) 2pts (it's always 4pts on odds on and 2pts or evens or above for me) I really don’t see any justification for Tabara to be the favourite here. Tabara operates well and has some fine tournaments on the Challenger circuit but whenever it comes to ATP level he struggles. His best year came in 2001 when he actually won this tournament and reached just inside the top 50. However, he has been idling for a few years and the fire which he had I do not feel is there anymore. In his first round he was poor against Vanek, scraping through in a third set tiebreak. He really should have won that match easily. Patience is very much a flair player. He struggles for consistency and his fitness should be improved. However, he is a great ball striker and serves very well. In the first round he beat Schuettler 6-2 6-2 which probably shows more how badly Schuettler was playing, however, it will undoubtedly give Patience the confidence he needs to progress further in the tournament. The most important thing in this match will be the Patience serve. The surface is on the slow side however I still feel he has enough power to make Tabara struggle on the return. Patience will get a lot of free points and simple ‘one-two’ points in this match. On the other hand, Tabara always struggles with his serve. He does not have the height to hit a big serve and tends to struggles to get a high percentage in. Lot’s of second serves to look at will give Patience the opportunity to hit his flashy shots and give Tabara a lot of uncomfortable service games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 4, 2005 Author Share Posted January 4, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Well iv got a few more selections for you here. Again all from bet365. Favorites accum. (Pavel, Grosjean, Lopez, Ljubicic, Federer, schriphan, russia, Australia) 1 pts:@ Federer to lose 1 set to Rusedski @5.00 0.5pts:@ Grosjean + Gaudio to win @2.1 1pt:@ M Youzhny to beat R Nadal @1.66 1.8pts:@ S Grosjean to beat Gilles Muller @1.40 3pts:nana 7.3pts staked current bank = 8.21pts Il post back up with results later Scoh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Davydenko wins 7-6 6-3 :clap:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sco Posted January 4, 2005 Author Share Posted January 4, 2005 Re: Tennis betting well only one result finished, but it looks good so far. Grosjean sails through, seen him play live against henman a few times and he is awsome. Good call with davy, i wasnt sure on that one at all, I remember seeing karlovic play and he seems one of the most random players I have seen. Will post up when the results are in, but 1.5pts up from todays so far.:dude Sco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Some good tipping in here, guys.:clap BTW, Karlovic plays like most other big serving guy (Ivanisevic, Philip. etc.) who have just the serve - if you are able to return the ball, they are always in trouble. Tipsarevic is an all-round player to be with this year, imho. We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Some good tipping in here, guys. Yeah it's good to see some action round these parts. Hopefully we'll be able to have a thread and have people contributing each week, not just threads and people who only play the Grand Slams ;). :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted January 4, 2005 Share Posted January 4, 2005 Re: Tennis betting Mr I, hope you profitted from Calleri as well. ;) Does anyone know where you could follow the Qatar Exxon Mobil Open live? The official site seems down and all I can do at the moment is follow the odds at Betfair. Seems pretty encouraging though as Monfils is leading at the moment. Would appreciate if someone could provide a link to a site with more up-to-date scores then what's on offer at livescore.com . Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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