gettingfatter Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Hi, I actually dont have any picks for tonight, took a while off in the middle of April as I didnt really have the spare money to gamble with and I am glad because the system I follow has been :puke since. I basically just bet Divisional Underdogs with a few filters to get rid of teams in a bad hitting slump etc. Since 2004 it has won 18 units a year or more every year (in 06 it won 85 units). This year so far it is -37 units. I am thinking of jumping back in head first as I feel like it really cant get much worse. This year it has gone 25-69 at an average price of 2.32. It is very strange because it seems as though underdogs overall are hitting well and Home underdogs are only winning roughly 5 units so Away underdogs must be destroying. This is all temporary variance and I am sure it will turn around, so I think now is the time to be jumping aboard. I have a bit of spare cash lying around now so will dump that into pinnacle and start with todays games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil85 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Re: MLB 18/05/11 + an interesting statistic/trend That definitely is an interesting statistic. Either way, the value is in most cases on the underdog (even though this year is -37 units with that particular kind of selection). I've been following a guy (not with money) who's keeping track of what would happen if you were only to be on the away team. 8 or 9 out of 10 times the away team is above evens, while recently the away teams have always been getting at least 50% of the wins. On a night where 75% or more of the away teams win, it can be incredibly lucrative. It's interesting, but the question remains: is it gonna be lucrative in the long term? It seems like you have a huge set of statistics, or did you gather this information online? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGurv Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Re: MLB 18/05/11 + an interesting statistic/trend MLB Overall 2011 55-41 +9.57 units (57.29%) Tough streak...0-8 the last week Angels -135 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamblichos Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Re: MLB 18/05/11 + an interesting statistic/trend That definitely is an interesting statistic. Either way, the value is in most cases on the underdog (even though this year is -37 units with that particular kind of selection). I've been following a guy (not with money) who's keeping track of what would happen if you were only to be on the away team. 8 or 9 out of 10 times the away team is above evens, while recently the away teams have always been getting at least 50% of the wins. On a night where 75% or more of the away teams win, it can be incredibly lucrative. It's interesting, but the question remains: is it gonna be lucrative in the long term? It seems like you have a huge set of statistics, or did you gather this information online? That´s interesting system. It seems to that the away wins % in MLB is higher than in other sports.... In fantasy betting i have chosen two teams and had placed a bet on them no matter what the statistics shows...in short term follow /through 1-2 months it brings small profit, but i´m not sure about long term efficacy /the two teams were Oakland Athletics and Florida Marlins-sympatic teams to me/ anyway, for tonight: Orioles to beat Yankees Red Sox to beat Tigers Angels to beat Mariners Phillies to beat Rockies and Pirates to beat Reds :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soitgoes Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 Re: MLB 18/05/11 + an interesting statistic/trend Got Royals/Rangers over 8 today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iamblichos Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Re: MLB 18/05/11 + an interesting statistic/trend That´s interesting system. It seems to that the away wins % in MLB is higher than in other sports.... In fantasy betting i have chosen two teams and had placed a bet on them no matter what the statistics shows...in short term follow /through 1-2 months it brings small profit, but i´m not sure about long term efficacy /the two teams were Oakland Athletics and Florida Marlins-sympatic teams to me/ anyway, for tonight: Orioles to beat Yankees Red Sox to beat Tigers Angels to beat Mariners Phillies to beat Rockies and Pirates to beat Reds :hope:hope Orioles to beat Yankees :eyes Red Sox to beat Tigers :clap Angels to beat Mariners :eyes Phillies to beat Rockies :clap and Pirates to beat Reds :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Re: MLB 18/05/11 + an interesting statistic/trend sounds like gamblers fallacy to me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil85 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Re: MLB 18/05/11 + an interesting statistic/trend Surely, seasons can take a statistically different turn every season. However, if you don't go all Martingale on such statistics, there is only little risk when you take the LSP-approach. Based on previous seasons, you can assume it's more likely that -37 units will turn around in profit (which would mean +37 units), than losing another -37 units. However, that can be considered gamblers fallacy yes. However, following long-term trends can still be effective on the long term. If at a start of a season a pitcher is on a 6-0 streak, then surely he could reach 12-0. However, the general trend is that most pitchers that start out with a big streak start losing games after about 5 or 6 winning games. So, I'm personally still a fan of statistics which show unusual occurrences, but I'm also a fan of taking a safe approach when it comes to using those statistics to make money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gettingfatter Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 Re: MLB 18/05/11 + an interesting statistic/trend sounds like gamblers fallacy to me Normally I would agree with you but this isnt akin to betting black because red came out 10 times. Divisonal Underdogs have hit at more than 44% each and every season for the last 7 years (~2300 games). Over a small sample this season they have hit 29% this year. There is a deep underlying trend in the data and I have no doubt that this will turn itself around somewhat by the end of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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