Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May

[Bathtime For Rupert]

4.20 Newbury - 1pt e/w Azameera @ SP (Currently 15/1 on Betfair) Absolute minefield of a fillies handicap, but Azameera looks overpriced to be here if you can excuse her 2nd start, when beaten favourite at Newmarket. This Clive Cox trained filly by Azamour was unfancied on debut when going off a 33/1 shot at Salisbury, but there was no fluke about her success as she fought greenness to score quite cosily in the end. This race looks rock solid with plenty of winners in behind her that day. Among these, Aneedah 2nd (Now rated 97), Sylvestris 3rd (Rated 80 but chased home Theyskens' Theory at York yesterday), Inimitable Romance 4th (Won by over 3l next time out), Baqaat 5th (Won at Epsom last time out), Beatrice Aurore 8th (Now rated 91), and Saint Helena 10th (Won twice since and ran in Lingfield Oaks trial last time). Was favourite at Newmarket next time out, but was up against the colts, slowly away, was reported to hang left throughout, and came back with a sore shoulder. The excuses were there, as she finished 7th of 8, 5 3/4l behind the winner. However, this was a good little race too. The winner, Azrael, is now rated 93 (won off 83 that day), and it wasn't a bad time either. I don't think a mark of 78 is beyond her at all, and the way she won first time out gives hope on her first run of the season. Quick ground should suit. Azamour did most of his winning on a fast surface, and her dam was by Green Desert. If you can forgive her that run, she's back amongst her own sex today, on a surface that will suit, and hopefully will be ready to go well at a price.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 14th May 1:45 Newmarket - San Cassiano - 1.5pts e/w @ 22/1 (Bet365) A very decent 1 mile handicap in the offing here. The one catching my eye at tasty odds is the Ruth Carr trained 4 year old, San Cassiano, who like most of his stablemate's, looks exceptionally well handicapped following a few disappointing efforts when the yard couldn't buy a winner. However, the excellent Ruth Carr has witnessed her string improve dramatically in recent weeks, with 6 winners from her last 17 runners giving her an excellent 35% strike-rate for the past fortnight, with a massive LSP of +£44.50p. She's on a run that God would be proud of and now makes a 350 mile round trip to run just the one horse at Newmarket, which looks mightily interesting given that she's only had 1 previous runner on the Rowley mile, and that was a 10/1 winner this time last year. The omens look good and this fellow certainly has enough raw ability to get involved here at a course he's built to love. San Cassiano was previously trained by Ralph Beckett, but proved most disappointing after winning a 6 furlong maiden in impressive style on debut. He ran well next time out as a 2 year old but failed to make any sort of impression when he returned next season, failing miserably in bids to defy handicap marks of 89 & 90, before running poorly in a 7f claimer on his final start for that yard. Connections sent him to Ruth Carr's yard for a change of scenery and it had an instant effect, as he won a competitive 13 runner handicap over a mile at Ripon in the style of a decent horse, scoring by 2 lengths off a career low mark of 78. He reappeared a week later under a 6lb penalty at this track, but ran on the July course. That race represented a step up in class but he showed great determination to get the win despite taking the lead a furlong out and being quickly headed. He does shape as if in need of further than this trip, but a the Rowley Mile should provide a good enough test and he has the ability to go close. San Cassiano then ran a decent race at Listed level before bombing out at Ripon on his final start of 2010. He's had 3 runs already this season, disappointing on the first couple before running what I thought was a respectable race at Chester last time out. It was a very competitive handicap in which my selection was trapped wide throughout in the hands of Franny Norton, and despite not having the pace to threaten the leaders at any stage, he continued to gallop on until the line and shaped as if a return to form may not be too far away. He wasn't an obvious eye-catcher, but this track is taken to suit him a lot better than Chester did and I feel that it will be a sufficient stamina test, even though he has a reasonable cruising speed too. He's game, responds to pressure, and is suited by conditions. Added to that, he's given a chance by the handicapper and is now just 1lb above his last winning mark, a mark which looked well below him on the day he won. Whether he can truly find his best form is yet to be seen, but the signs from the yard suggest their horses are running themselves back to form and that great to see. I expect Ruth Carr will have plenty of nice priced winners throughout the summer and she's definitely a trainer to keep on your side. Ignore the stats for her throughout the winter and just look forward to making money on her animals during the summer. She can train horses exceptionally well, despite plenty of people claiming otherwise. This will be a tough race to win by all means, with the inclusion of a Godolphin horse, Con Artist, who could be a Group horse in waiting. I just couldn't be taking 4/1 about him and reckon he's far too risky a proposition, even though he warrants maximum respect here given connections and his previous potential. Andrew Balding's Brick Red is another very talented animal but he's likely to have other targets planned for him and may need a bit of rain regardless of that. Hughie Morrison has had a slow start to the year and I wouldn't be too keen on Nazreef here, even though he shaped well in the Spring Cup last time out. He's still entitled to go well and be there or thereabouts, but the price isn't attractive enough for me. There's plenty of others who could have fair cases made for them but I'm going to stick with Ruth Carr here. She books Seb Sanders for the ride and that also looks interesting. He took the reins on San Cassiano in that Listed run at Goodwood and has 2 wins from just 12 rides for this yard. He also rides the track well and is prone to the odd big-priced winner here too. 22/1 is too big for this animal and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go very well. He doesn't have that instant turn of foot that you'd like to see, but he gallops and gallops all day when on song. As previously mentioned, conditions are ideal and I'm pretty sure the track is built to suit him. 12's would be my idea of a fairer price about him and I'll have a small/medium each-way bet on him making the frame. The yards form can't be ignored and this fellow looks to have a decent chance of increasing their recent string of brilliant results. He'll probably sit in either behind or alongside the pace and hopefully it'll give way and he'll gallop on to the line to win. He won't do things overly quick, but he's resolute and capable. Hopefully he'll go well.