Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April

Lars · April 29, 2011

I know this is so ridiculously early, but I may not have internet access and I got the price now that I was hoping for. We'll see if it drifts out tomorrow, and at least we've got BOG. Newmarket 15:45 Iâ€™m so keen on the chances of Jonny Mudball in this race, even though itâ€™s a distinct step up in class and he has a little bit to do on figures that Iâ€™m willing to take this early price. To me, heâ€™s an out and out 5f horse, and the drop to the minimum trip will be of huge benefit. Surprisingly itâ€™ll be his first start at the distance, and he does have to make it in Group 3 Company, making the jump from Heritage Handicaps. The main piece of form that leads me to believe he could hack up in a race like this was his run in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood in July. Racing on the far side in only a small group (compared to the rest of the field), he absolutely bolted clear of them, and was winning by a couple of lengths within the final furlong. He wasnâ€™t stopping, but tiring slightly in the last half-furlong, and ended up finishing 2nd. It was a bold effort but I just think that at the top level, he may just need a slightly shorter trip than the 6f that he encountered there. Jonny Mudball was last seen at the track when racing in the Ayr Gold Cup. He showed good speed throughout the early stages of the race, but was unable to get his favoured position over that trip due to missing the break (first time heâ€™d done so in his career). It was still a bold effort in what is a tough handicap. He hasnâ€™t been seen since, which is perhaps a concern as heâ€™s been away for the track for 224 days. The selection a horse who has mainly been kept on the go, and his only real record fresh doesnâ€™t look the best on paper, when running 6th at Doncaster. There are excuses for that run, for the fact it was run on slightly soft ground, which has proved not to be his ideal surface. Tom Dascombe was also in dreadful form at that point, a factor being the new gallop he moved to being faulty (allegedly). Jonny Mudball still finished very close up, but just emptied out in the last 150yds. Today, he moves up to Group 3 company in what look a great race. He does have 8lbs to make up on the top rated horses (Prohibit and Bordlescott) but I think the drop in trip can lead to some serious improvement this year. Especially on faster ground which he encounters today. I think he can be a serious contender for the late season 5f Group 1 sprints at York and at Longchamp. Seb Sanders booking is a positive, him having ridden him on his last four starts, including when winning at Newcastle off a mark of 90, when showing the excellent early speed previously mentioned. The draw has been quite kind too, and he may be able to bag a rail sit if his jockey wishes to. At a double figure price, Iâ€™m staking a bit more than usual. He may prove not to be up to a Group 3, or may need the run. However, I feel opportunities (personally) donâ€™t come around too often, and perhaps if he does get beat today, theyâ€™ll be other chances for him to recoup. Still, I think the race conditions, draw, and the expertise of Seb Sanders should lead to a massive run. Jonny Mudball ; 2.5pts EW @ 14/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

Spooner · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Newmarket 15:10 Fury @ 18/1 Boylesports 1pt e/w 3 1/4 Fury (W/O Frankel) @ 7/1 Boylesports 2pts e/w 3 1/4 Frankel is obviously the one to beat here and should win this, however after that I see the race looking pretty open. We see in last year's race that the fancied horses did not do very well with the first three in the betting out the frame. Fury for William Haggas looks a nice horse, two career runs and two wins, both coming over 7f distance. Stayed on well to win in a huge field at this course and the step upto 8f should suit. In that race plenty have come out and run well in good races, obviously not to this standard but with improvement to come from this one which should be there, he is entitled to run a big race. Stable also in good nick, not sent out many but hold a 20% win ratio and with others in the places too.

Quackers · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 2000 Guineas Saamidd 0.5pt e/w 33/1 Ladbrokes Taking Frankel out of this race, I think you could have anything fill the places. This horse was hugely impressive on his first 2 runs winning by 7 lengths in a maiden at Newbury and then winning quite easily in a group 2 at Doncaster by over 2 lengths. That was only the second run of his career so it was impressive how he travelled and then put the race to bed. The horses he beat that day in Approve and Waiter's Dream are smart animals in their own right and he beat them with ease. Saamidd's next run in the Dewhurst was so disappointing and surely this was not his true running. I am willing to forget about that run as it was too bad to be true. Godolphin do appear to have a much better chance in the race with Casamento and Frankie has chosen that one over the 2. He doesn't always make the right decision however and the young French jockey that takes over from him on Saamidd is very talented. I think I am right in saying that Saamidd is bred to be better over this longer distance being by Street Cry. Street Cry has produced multiple group 1 winners in the USA and none other than the amazing Zenyetta. I am hoping Saamidd can be another one. I had to have a small interest on this horse at 33/1 which I think is a massive price. Taken from the Godolphin website about Saamidd... Saeed bin Suroor revealed: "Saamidd works nicely at home and he is ready to go. "He ran well last year and he has matured through the winter into a stronger, heavier, more relaxed horse, so we are looking for a good run from him. "He is a Group Two winner, so we know he has class and the mile will suit him." Simon Crisford commented: "Nothing ever came to light to explain Saamidd’s poor run in the Dewhurst. "But the colt had a difficult disposition on the day - his attitude seemed to change and he didn't like the ground very much. Even saying that, he was disappointing but he has been working nicely this year. "Obviously, he has a lot to find with the principals on Saturday but we have been very pleased with his progress over the last few weeks."

Quackers · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 2.30 Newmarket Dandino 5 pts win 11/4 Boylesports This horse is in my ten to follow and I expect a massive run from him today. He was one of the most progressive horses last year winning a maiden at Redcar off 77 and going to finish rated 113 at the end of the season. He went very close in a group 2 at Goodwood before finding the St Leger too far. He had the St Leger winner in behind win finishing second at Goodwood. I have no doubt that this horse will continue to progress this year and he won on his reappearance at Ripon by 11 lengths. He should come on far that run and at least give Laahab a good battle here. Dandino has plenty of group1 and group2 entries which shows how highly they think of this horse. I see Laaheb as the only danger and surprisingly this horse goes very well for Richard Hills. All career wins have come under this jockey plus he is already a group 3 winner. Laaheb ran a cracker in Meydan to finish close up behind Rewilding in a group 1. Campanologist is another horse who has to be considered as he has already won at group 2 level. He also goes well fresh and should run a good race here. The stable mate of my selection Inidan Days ran well last time out to win his first group race but this is much tougher. I think James Given's best chance in this race lies with Dandino. Dandino is the youngest horse in the field and gets a very small weight allowance from the others. I see Dandino as one to continue progressing this year into a consistent group horse. Hopefully he can get the better of Laaheb today.

Quackers · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 3.45 Newmarket Group Therapy 2pts e/w 15/2 Bet 365 As much as I like the favourite here I can't not back this horse. He runs for my favourite trainer and has been purchased by the sponsors of this race so surely they will be expecting a big run in their own race. This horse returned last year a very much improved performer winning on his return and finishing in the places on his next 3 runs in group2, group3 and listed level. On his final start he was bumped at the start and was given too much to do in a race where he was sent off second favourite. Like all big sprint races, these horses will beat each other throughout the year so I am hoping its this horses turn today. He will have plenty of assistance in the saddle from Ryan Moore and goes well fresh which is a positive. I think David Barron is a great trainer of sprinters and he will have this one ready to go first time up. As for the dangers, well there are plenty. Like I said before there are a few in here who are all capable of winning this on their day. The favourite was beaten by 2 of these before going on to land 2 group 3 races at the end of last season so must have a big chance here. In what is a competitive sprint I am going to take a chance with Group Therapy to win it for the sponsors of the race Pearl Bloodstock.

Quackers · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 2.00 Newmarket Proponent 2pts e/w 9/1 William Hill Was going to leave this race alone as I am pretty rubbish at trying to find the winner of these big field handicaps but I like the look of this horse here. Proponent is a regular in these types of races and ran with plenty of zest on his return in the Spring Cup at Newbury. He didn't get the best passage that day and was always travelling well. When he did get the gaps he ran on well. He should come on for that outing and the extra distance should play too his strengths. He is a CD winner and has Frankie on board who is 1 from 1 on the horse. I see this as a big positive as Frankie is one of the best big race riders in the business and should be able to stay clear of trouble through the race. That win under Frankie came in October 2009 and was the horses last win but he has had plenty of near misses and hard luck stories. Hopefully today will be the day that he gets his head back in front. He has never won off a mark this high but is definitely capable as he showed when an unlucky 3rd behind Ransom Note at York last year off 97. He won this race back in 2008 off a mark of 90 so with that run at Newbury under his belt, I expect a good run from this horse. The favourite here Green Destiny could well turn out to be much better than these and should go well under Michael Hills but I am happy to take him on! Could be a good day or a terrible day! :hope

Lars · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Newmarket 14:00 Chapter And Verse was undone by them not going any gallop at all when making his seasonal reappearance in a Kempton Listed race on Lincoln day. He comes to this tough looking handicap off a much lower mark, being a little better on the all-weather. I still think heâ€™ll be able to run a decent race off his current turf mark of 88, and at his current price, heâ€™s worth a small investment. In general, he acquitted himself well in all-weather listed races. Especially when finishing 1.5 lengths behind Riggins back in November. His all-weather mark was raised 6lbs for this to 100, which he has struggled to run any sort of race since with. Comparing this with his turf mark, heâ€™s currently 8lbs better off when running on turf, and although his best runs have come on the all-weather in general, he has put up some admirably runs on the grass. Especially when unlucky against Kindest at this track, on his last turf start. He probably would have won that day except for a very decent ride by the jockey of the eventual winner. That was off 3lbs less than he runs off today, and although it was a weaker race, the step up in trip and likelier stronger pace should suit. Personally, I think Chapter And Verse may have improved over the winter, as heâ€™s ran admirably in company slightly better than this race today and itâ€™s possible that he could improve on turf and get closer to his all-weather mark. Tony Culhane and Mike Murphy have a cracking record when teaming up, with a LSP of +Â£37.83. Heâ€™s had the benefit of the run, and that race should be ignored due to the pace they went, which was shown by nothing from the rear even getting close. Albeit this, he travelled well and should come on for that effort. Heâ€™s 25/1, and Iâ€™d put him at around a 16/1 shot. Minimum stakes, but a horse who I think can run well in a decent handicap. Chapter And Verse; 1pt EW @ 25/1 Ladbrokes (bog)

Quackers · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 4.20 Newmarket Forjatt 1.5pts 12/1 e/w Ladbrokes This horse got within 2 lengths of Wootton Bassett on his second start and then went on to win on his next start by 5 lengths. Next time out at Doncaster over 7f this horse finished well down the field but finished full of running and never really got a run in the race, constantly running into the back of horses. His next next run at listed level came on soft ground which did not suit this horse. Returns to the track today for Roger Varian with Frankie on board, and with his ideal conditions. He is the highest rated horse in the field and I expect him to fulfil his potential this season. Hanagan is on the favourite but he believes this is a touch race and his ride will come on for the run. I like the look of Forjatt here and at 12/1 he is worth a bet. He will not be so big come tomorrow...

Bathtime For Rupert · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 2.00 Newmarket - 1pt e/w Viva Vettori @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Hugely open handicap in which there looks value to be had. Despite the David Elsworth yard not going great guns, I am going to take a chance on a horse with an excellent record fresh, and on a good mark. Viva Vettori made a promising start to his career, and progressed to be a good handicapper, especially on the all-weather where he boasts a mark of 99. Has run in this race in the last two years, finishing 2nd off 87 in 2009, and a close 4th off 88 last year. Ran a good race again at Newmarket in October and gets 9lbs more from Brick Red on that run for less than a 2l defeat. 121 is his record fresh (narrowly beaten 2nd) and romped to victory at Kempton on his reappearance in 2010 (in a competitive listed race). A mark of 84 looks very fair for the horse who also runs regularly at Newmarket. William Buick has a good record on the horse and even though Viva Vettori is a maiden on the turf, he has never raced fresh on the surface, so tomorrow could well be the day at a very rewarding price. Either way, I would expect a bold showing with Buick showing a Â£15 level stake profit for the trainer.

Tull · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Could be a favourites day at Newmarket tomorrow. 2.00 - Green Destiny - 11/2 ladbrokes 1pt win Has a great chance tomorrow although I am a little worried about first run of the season. Looked a smart sort towards the end of last season up 5lbs but conditions shouldnt be an issue and an extra furlong might be beneficial. Capable of a listed win this season 2.30 - Campanologist - 9/2 paddypower 1pt win This will probably go to one of the top three in the market. Laaheb will go off fav and is likely to blaze from the front and Dandino cannot be dismissed. However I think the selection offers a little bit of value if the fav fails to fire and goes off too quick. Happy to ignore the run in Oz on awful ground. Goes well fresh 3.10 - Saamid 0.5pts ew - 33/1 Hills Frankie was raving about this horse last season but no surprise he opts for another ride after a poor showing LTO. I'm happy to forgive that race as a one off and I've just got a feeling that Mickael Barzalona could make everyone stand up an take note of his ability 3.45 - Astrophysical Jet - 1pts win 4/1 Ladbrokes Meets all the criteria I'm looking for in a selection. Was noted as one to watch for this year and just hoping that his good work can continue. Bordelescott likely to be there or thereabouts. Cant side with Sole Power although if returing to York form must have a change. I dont know enough about the French raider but on the stats its doesnt look the best runner 4.20 - Alben Star - 1pt win 5/1 ladbrokes Only question I have is whether the horse will have a liking for the course. The pace of the race will suit so hoping that the run at York can be forgotten. Cadeaux Pearl could possibly offer some value 4.55 - Cai Shen - 1pt win 7/2 Bet365 Most of the reivews Ive read of this race say that the run LTO flattered, that may be the case but I am prepared to go against that. Cai shen has a decent speed rating and could decide to take a lead in a race against other horses that are not as prominent. Hopefully he will have it all his own way upfront and then be able to kick on from 2 out. Conditions are also favourable

Cal · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Thirsk 15:00 An interesting one here in FULL PELT, who is very well rated by his trainer. An American bred horse who ran a 5th on his first outing last week at Redcar. I think that outing will help ease him a long and we may see a different prospect here. Dascombe rates him highly who said he will be eased in at first and then will go from there. He says that he will get a few quid for Full Pelt from America if he wins over here and I can't see it being too long. Dascombe had a 2YO called Pyman's Theory who came on today after his first outing and won very well, so his yard could be setting it up to do the same with Full Pelt. He certainly is an interesting e/w bet for me.

Tedthewolf · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April Going to follow three of Mickael Barzalona mounts e/w at Newmarket tomorrow all decent prices one of which is for Gay Kelleway 4.20 PRIMO LADY 25/1 he's on SAAMIDD 33/1 in the Guineas and NAMECHECK 14/1 in the first. Good young rider be interesting to see how he gets on for his 2nd visit to these shores after a stonking first one.

Stevet1859 · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 2:00 Newmarket: Green Destiny 1pt win 6/1 Boylesports Green Destiny has only seen the course three times yet the form of those races have worked out really well with numerous subsequent winners. He got off the mark at Haydock over a mile and then followed up at Leicester off 82. That was on heavy going and with a better surface today and a step up in distance there is a good chance there is further improvement to come off only a five pound higher mark. William Haggas is a master at getting his horses ready for big handicaps and has a decent record at HQ. Michael Hills also has a good record when riding for the yard. 3:10 Newmarket 2000 Guineas: Casamento 1pt e/w 20/1 Victor Chandler There looked nothing wrong with Frankel's reappearence at Newbury, and that should put him spot on. However at 1/2 its worth taking a chance with a double figure shot each way. Part of the problem is who will run against the red hot favourite. If Casamento takes his chance he looks overpriced to make the frame. Last year Casamento was trained by Mick Halford and has now switched to Godolphin, and he is handled by Mahmood Al Zarooni rather than Saeed Bin Suroor. Mahmood Al Zarooni is off to a flying start knocking in the winners. Looking through Casamento's form he got off the mark at the first time of asking at Tipperary before going down by a head to Guineas second favourite Pathfork at the Curragh. To step up from a maiden to run so well in a Group One was a fine effort. Casamento then added to his tally with a win at the Curragh and rounded off his season with the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster. And the form of that race is already looking solid. Casamento looks interesting an each way shot. Price available at time of original post

Monterosso · April 29, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April 2:00 Newmarket - Sand Skier - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365) A competitive, wide-open and exciting looking class 2 handicap to kick us off tomorrow. It's over 1m 1f on the Rowley Mile course and the one I'm quite keen on is Mark Johnston's consistent 4 year old Sand Skier, who doesn't win as often as he should, but holds plenty of raw ability and more than enough to go close here. The one thing holding me back is the distinct lack of obvious pace in the race, and that's not a plus for my selection, who does like a good toe into contention, but he may still be worth siding with, despite having to face 18 other rivals. There is the possibility that Richard Hills could set out to make all on this gelding, but ideally, he'd like to be in behind a decent pace before making his move in the closing stages. Regardless of that, this race is filled with horses who'll need a good gallop, and it seems to be the same scenario for the majority of the field. Hopefully something will bowl along in-front at a good early pace, but it's doubtful, hence the tentative stakes. Sand Skier comes here race fit, having run just 10 days ago over 1m 2f at Epsom. He was well punted to make a winning return to these shores, having opened at 13/2 before being backed into 9/2 favourite. However, the track certainly isn't for everyone, and he just didn't handle it, losing his position a long way from home before fading tamely 3f out. Frankie Dettori was on board that day and let him come home at his own pace, clearly saving him for another day. Given that he hasn't had an overly hard race, I'm expecting a much better performance here, even though it's not long since he ran. Given his overall profile, he seems to take racing quite well anyways, so that won't be a valid excuse. Sand Skier looked very well that day though, having run a month earlier out in France (came 2nd), but I'll happily put that run down to the track. He's also dropped 2lbs for having run so poorly, and that's another plus. Today, he'll be running off a mark of 88, which looks a very winnable mark given that he's placed in a similarly hot C&D handicap off a mark of 90, on soft ground. Sand Skier dead-heated for second, just a short-head behind Sarrsar, a very decent type. My selection was hampered that day and looked likely to fade out of contention, but he rallied to put on the pressure as they met the rising ground, seeing out the trip very well, which is needed at this course. The return to quicker ground at Newmarket should prove to be a plus, and I can definitely seeing him getting involved once again, assuming things don't go completely against him. His ability to pick up on the back of slower early fractions does seem to increase on better ground, and this is the first time he encounters good ground on the Rowley Mile. He ran again over C&D later in the season, but faded tamely and probably had enough of the racing game at that stage, having endured quite a tough season. He ran 9 times all-in-all, failing to get his head in-front but he ran well in the main. He's very likely to make a much better 4 year old and hopefully it'll start with victory here. The Mark Johnston yard aren't banging in the winners of late, but many of their animal have run well, whilst shaping as if in need of the run too. This fellow should come on from his recent runs, but how much is yet to be seen. Johnston won this race last year with Tartan Gigha, who also runs here, but I'm not overly keen on his chances. I don't usually back history to repeat itself, but this race usually goes to progressive 4 or 5 year olds, and Johnston has one of the former on the prowl here today, so hopefully he can take advantage again. Sand Skier has everything you'd want in a potential winner of this race and there's most certainly races in him off this sort of mark, whether it's one as competitive as this is yet to be seen, but the horses ability can't be questioned and the only reason he's 16/1 is due to that flop last time out, which was perfectly understandable as far as I can see. Richard Hills, who takes the reins for the first time on this fellow, boasts a good recent record at the course, having had 36 winners from his last 200 rides, giving him a fine 18% strike rate and a small LSP. He's not a jockey I'm overly keen on, but he's reasonably good and will hopefully enhance his already impressive record for the yard. Of the rest, Breakheart and Buaiteoir rate as dangers, but so do the rest of the field. It's a massively wide-open contest and one I'm only comfortable playing small enough each-way stakes in. I'd rate Sand Skier as a 10/1 shot on his best form, with claims for him being even shorter. I'd most certainly go in heavier if the pace was assured, but it's not, even though something could set off to make it a decent test. The return to Newmarket, quick ground and the big field are all in this fellow favour. Hopefully he'll take full advantage, as he deserves to get his head in-front once again.

Monterosso · April 30, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April (Qipco 2,000 Guineas) 3:10 Newmarket - Loving Spirit - 0.5pts e/w @ 66/1 (Bet365) There's a fair chance that most people not backing Frankel are just playing for the 2 places in behind. However, I'm not overly convinced that Henry Cecil's potential superstar is unbeatable just yet, purely as he hasn't faced a truly run race. It's all well and good destroying everyone around when the early fractions are very sedate, but can he do it if they go at it from the off? Who knows. There's a fair chance that this won't be run frantically from the off, but it should be set up quite well by the likes of Rerouted, who seems to be included to set it all up for the hot favourite. Frankel is clearly a horse with the most amazing speed and acceleration, but to date, that's all been off a slowly run pace in small fields. Fair enough, he hasn't settled in the majority of his races and still won with absolute ease, and a good gallop would be ideal, but does that take away his most potent weapon? Possibly. I'm not saying he won't win, because in all probability he will win, but I wouldn't take 4/7 about this horse in a million years. Although I wouldn't take that price about any horse nowadays. His ability is undoubted, his ability to be at his best under these race conditions is, and for that reason, I'm fancying an upset on the cards. There's a fair chance it won't be my selection that'll win, but I think he can nab one of the places if all goes well. The one that I'm quite keen on is James Toller's potentially classy type, Loving Spirit, who will probably end up being a very useful middle-distance horse. However, I'm of the opinion that he's overlooked too easily here and could really be anything. Given that he's only run twice, he hasn't shown his all to date, but what he has shown has really impressed me. First time up he ran over 7f at this course, late on in the season. It was quite soft ground that day and he tackled a 17 runner maiden first time up, which looked a tough task. James Toller isn't too bad with his 2 year old and he clearly had this fellow spot on, as he was well-backed and duly obliged in a most impressive fashion. He sat in behind the leaders and traveled supremely throughout, before moving into contention with relative ease. In the end, Loving Spirit ran out a very easy 5 length winner, despite running as if he didn't know what was going on, although that's understandable. It wasn't a bad maiden by any means and plenty of the runners should make good animals, but Toller's charge will be the best of them. He put in a performance that would see him rated near 100 and done that all despite shaping as if he'd be a better horse on a sound surface, as his dam was. He disappointed next time out when upped in class and trip (over todays C&D), but it was still a very good effort given his inexperience. 2nd place was all he could muster, having made his charge on what may have been an unfavoured strip of ground down the centre of the course, and despite holding every chance a furlong from home, the winner had soon flown to a 2.25l victory. James Toller has come out on record and said he believed his then 2 year old colt couldn't handle running a second race in the space of 2 weeks, and that could be a valid excuse, as I'd of fully expected him to be the best horse in that race. Toller has also said that Loving Spirit has strengthened up well over the winter and he definitely looked as if there was plenty of scope for improvement in his frame last year, so we could see a different animal over the course of 2011. Toller also admits that he's probably aiming a bit high in taking on Frankel here, but he expects a decent run and so do I. The horse should make a cracking 1m 2f to 1m 4f horse, but for now, a truly run mile should be alright. He obviously handles the track and goes well fresh, as his trainer also stated, so a good run could be on the cards. This horse could be anything and although he has plenty of stamina in his blood, his sire, Azamour, wasn't half bad over a mile. The 66/1 price tag is very attractive (much bigger on the exchange) and I think he could run himself into a place if all goes well. There's plenty of other opposition for the places, but this fellow is talented, unexposed, and should make a much better 3 year old. I'm playing the smallest of small each-way stakes on him, as Frankel should and probably will win, but I'd have my doubts. I'm probably wrong to have doubts about him, but until he does it on the back of a solid gallop (in a top race obviously!), I'll be a non-believer.

Monterosso · April 30, 2011

Re: Flat Racing; Saturday 30th April (Palace House Stakes) 3:45 Newmarket - Mister Hughie - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) A fast, furious and very exciting Group 3 contest is in order here, with plenty of good sprinters coming to Newmarket to contest this Â£28,000 prize. The one I'm most interested in is my good friend Mister Hughie, who I've backed on numerous occasions. He has recently moved from Mick Channon's yard and now runs for Tim Easterby, a man who knows how to get the most out of a sprinter. This horse is an odd one, as he takes a long time to get going, much like a diesel engine! However, when in top gear, he can mix it with the best, as proven when finishing a forever diminishing 1 length (4th) behind Borderlescott in the Group 2 King George Stakes over 5f at Goodwood. The sharp track suited my selection that day, but he has won on his only visit to the Rowley course, and I'm taking a chance on him making it 2 from 2. That race was over 6f in a handicap, where my selection for todays race was running off a mark of 95. He beat 18 rivals home that day and belied odds of 25/1 to do so. He has progressed since, winning a Listed race at Beverley from Prohibit by a neck, although it would of been further with a clear run initially. He re-opposes both of those horses now, but looks to be a much more attractive price than them. Mister Hughie comes here on the back of 6 month break, but he won that handicap last year on his seasonal reappearance, off a near identical layoff. This is obviously much, much tougher, but I'm full sure there's a Group race in him some day and he has ideal conditions to contend with. They'll go at it straight from the off and Tim Easterby's charge will probably be somewhat detached at the rear of the field, as he so often is, but one he hits top gear, I expect he'll be flying home late under the guidance of the brilliant Tom Queally, who takes the ride on him for the first time. Queally is one of my favourite jockeys and looks to have an excellent day ahead of him, with odds-on Frankel lining up in the proceeding race. He could come into this race having won the 2,000 Guineas and he's bound to be full on confidence if he does so. That will surely bode well for Mister Hughie, who does need expert handling if he's to be at his best. He's a tricky ride and an odd horse, but there's no doubting that he's an absolute speedball when he gets going. The track is grand for him, as he sees out 6f quite readily, and the uphill finish at Newmarket will play to his strengths. He is better on a quicker track though, but galloping tracks don't seem to both him too much, having won at Bath, Haydock and over the July course here. There's potentially more to come from this horse as a 4 year old and I think this is the year that he'll get that elusive Group race, although he has only lined up in 6 of them. I'm not going into too much detail, as I've posted plenty about him in the past, but he's more than capable of getting involved here if he doesn't need the run, and at odds of 20/1, he's worth a small each-way bet to make the frame. Hopefully he'll run well, because if he does, the sight of seeing him fly up the hill to win very late on will be thrilling and hopefully we'll get the chance to see it. 3:35 Thirsk - Oratory - 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365) I'm heading over to Thirsk for my fourth and final bet of the day, with this selection coming in the Class 2 Hunt Cup over 1 mile at this fairly sharp track. The one I find of interest is the fairly lightly raced recent addition to Geoffrey Harker's yard, Oratory, who made his seasonal bow over 7f at this track just 3 weeks ago. He was very well punted that day, having been a double figure price in the morning, before eventually going off as the 4/1 favourite of 13. He started slowly in a race where he'd of liked to be a lot better positioned, and he never really improved from his sit towards the rear of the field, eventually finishing a 9Â½ lengths 8th place. Despite all of that, his new connections, who forked out 44,000 GNS to acquire him, should of learned a lot more from that run and I'm expected the could be in line to land this Â£13,000 pot. Everything was probably happening too quickly for him regardless and I'm banking on the step up to a mile to do the trip, as it looks to be his optimum and given the nature of the track, I think that he'll prove to be right at home. The sound surface should also play into his strengths and it's likely that they'll go a decent gallop from the off. Assuming he can get a better sit in behind the leaders, I'm hopeful that he'll be running on well towards the end, hopefully into a place at least. Given that Oratory is rated 90, there's not a whole lot of room for maneuver with him. However, he has been competitive off higher marks and may just have a win in him off something around what he's currently rated. Michael O'Connell also takes off a valuable 3lbs from his claim. He seems to be riding well of late and has run close to winning on a couple of the stables animals of late, so hopefully he'll do so again. Oratory is a former Richard Hannon trained horse, and one they expected a fair bit of a couple of years ago. He obviously hasn't lived up to expectation but a change in stable could bring more out of him in the long term. He has been consistent in the main before this and although he hasn't won very often (only once), he does hold a fair level of ability, and remains quite unexposed, especially over the trip. That recent run should bring him on a fair bit and the big field here is in his favour. A truly run mile on a sharp track will probably prove to be his optimum and if the jockey can give him a competent ride, I see no reason why he can't belie odds of 18/1 here. I'm tired so I'm not going to go into too much detail, but on his best form, this fellow has very good claims, certainly not those of an 18/1 shot. He's worth a small each-way go here and I wouldn't be surprised to see him win. Hopefully he'll run well.

georgeCOSTANZA · April 30, 2011