Cricket: County Championship 2011

[kevshat]

The new domestic cricket season is less than a week away now so it's time to start the 1st thread of the year, the County Championship. I'll start it with one thread but if it overflows I'll cut it into a thread for each division. I've done a preview for each division which I'll put up in the next two posts but just a quick overview of the rules and format for those new to domestic cricket and the wonderful betting opportunities it brings. We have two divisions of 9 counties. At the end of the season the top 2 from Division 2 replace the bottom 2 of Division 1. You now get 16pts for a win, 3 for a draw and nothing for losing. All matches in this competition are 4 days long and 2 innings per side. You also score bonus points in the 1st innings of each match and they are scored as follows: Batting: 200-249 runs = 1pt 250-299 runs = 2pts 300-349 runs = 3pts 350-399 runs = 4pts 400 runs and over = 5pts Bowling: 3-5 wickets = 1pt 6-8 wickets = 2pts 9 or 10 wickets = 3pts Note: You can only score bonus points in the 1st 110 overs of each 1st innings. Season runs from April to September and begins on Friday. Let's hope it's a decent season with plenty of involvement like the recent cricket threads on PL. I know we've lots of county fans on PL so this should be another good thread. Previews to follow shortly.

[kevshat]

[kevshat]

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 Big week this with so much sport starting towards the end and I'm going to have quite a few outrights beginning so I'll get the first two out of the way now. 7pts Durham to win County Championship Division 1 9/2 Skybet I quite like Durham. They won the title in 2008 and 2009 and injuries killed them last year. They have the best bowling attack in the country and their batting is none to shabby either and it could be strengthened by Paul Collingwood a lot more than was originally expected. Graham Onions, Steve Harmison and Liam Plunkett have all played for England recently while Scott Borthwick is an England leggie in waiting. With the bat di Venuto is as good as they come then there's Collingwood, Benkenstein and Blackwell to make up an international middle order. As I've said in the preview above there's a slight concern over Mustard's captaincy but that's the only weakness I see in this Durham squad and as long as injuries aren't as cruel to them this year as they were last then I think they will take an awful lot of beating in 4 day cricket this season. 4pts Middlesex to win County Championship Division 2 8/1 Bet365 I like Middlesex for the same reasons as I like Durham - their bowling attack. Steven Finn, Corey Collymore, Anthony Ireland, Tim Murtagh and Toby Roland-Jones form one of if not the best bowling attacks in the division. Chris Rogers massively strengthens the batting and the Panthers could well see more of Morgan than expected when he comes back from the IPL with Bopara potentially in the box seat for Colly's test place. Strauss will be around a bit too especially if he gives up ODI's and then there's the solid players like Dexter and Malan who were already there. Middlesex have been in the doldrums for a good while but Angus Fraser has turned them around and with the signings they've made I expect them to go very well in what is a massively wide open division.

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 Wow Kev as far as I'm aware, 7pts is a rare bet for you let alone on an outright :loon You must be supremely confident! Interestingly StanJames do some Division 2 Group Betting markets which I shall be hitting instead of complete outrights. Currently on my iPhone so will come back with the picks and reasonings later. Great work on the previews nonetheless though mate :ok

[celtic_hoops]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 Derbyshire Falcons not Phantoms Kev.

[celtic_hoops]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011

Division 2 Preview I don’t see where Derbyshire are going to put good totals up from. Rogers regularly scored 1200+ runs for the county

Wayne Madsen certainly capable of that.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011

Wayne Madsen certainly capable of that.

Not when you put his 950 runs from last year into the mix he isn't.

[RussP]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 Top previews mate:clap. You've certainly convinced me, although just you dismiss the Lancy at your peril:lol

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011

Wow Kev as far as I'm aware, 7pts is a rare bet for you let alone on an outright :loon You must be supremely confident! Interestingly StanJames do some Division 2 Group Betting markets which I shall be hitting instead of complete outrights. Currently on my iPhone so will come back with the picks and reasonings later. Great work on the previews nonetheless though mate :ok

Yeh I'm confident although I'm always more aggressive on the county stuff as that's my bread and butter. I see it as a clear two horse race and Durham have the potential to win more matches which is important as the days of winning titles with draws have gone. Thanks for the comment on the previews, hopefully they help out a few people when they're betting this season :ok.

[celtic_hoops]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011

Not when you put his 950 runs from last year into the mix he isn't.

totally different player since then, wait and see

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011

totally different player since then' date=' wait and see[/quote'] If Wayne Madsen scores 2150 Championship runs in this or any season in his career I will bare my arse in a shop window.

[celtic_hoops]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 its okay for you to be rude then, i`m sure if I was rude I would get a ban a)i never said 2150, i said 1200 b) you are just looking at stats and have doubt you have ever seen him bat

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 You said Wayne Madsen can replace Rogers' 1200 runs a season. He scored 940 runs last season so to replace his 1200 he would have to score 2140 runs this season. If he scores 1200 he's replaced 260 of the runs. I've seen Madsen bat on many occasions.

[celtic_hoops]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 no to replace Rogers he would have to score 1200 this years. dont be so pedantic You come across as you know it all and anyone dare questions you is wrong How many times you seen Madsen bat then? I have seen all but 3 of his entire innings

[celtic_hoops]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 so what odds you going to give me Madsen scores 1200 runs?

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011

no to replace Rogers he would have to score 1200 this years. dont be so pedantic You come across as you know it all and anyone dare questions you is wrong How many times you seen Madsen bat then? I have seen all but 3 of his entire innings

Ok we have it your way. Madsen scores 1200 runs this season. Who scores Madsen's 950 runs from last season? Nobody so we're down to the same result. I've seen Madsen more than enough times to make an opinion on him. I think he's got every chance of scoring 1200 runs. I never said he couldn't but either way there's going to be a serious shortfall on last season's runs which is why Derbyshire will be fighting Gloucestershire for the wooden spoon in my predictions.

[celtic_hoops]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011

Ok we have it your way. Madsen scores 1200 runs this season. Who scores Madsen's 950 runs from last season? Nobody so we're down to the same result. I've seen Madsen more than enough times to make an opinion on him. I think he's got every chance of scoring 1200 runs. I never said he couldn't but either way there's going to be a serious shortfall on last season's runs which is why Derbyshire will be fighting Gloucestershire for the wooden spoon in my predictions.

I dont disagree with that but if you can find a match bet for derbyshire to finish above gloucester then that is a good wager IMO. Lets leave it at that :ok

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 I agree. I have them 8th to Gloucester 9th. Another bet for me. 6pts Leicestershire to win Div 2 Group F (vs Derbyshire & Gloucestershire) & Worcestershire to finish bottom of Div 1 double 2.67/1 Stan James There's a lot about division two I had a hard time working out but one thing that didn't take long is that Gloucestershire and Derbyshire will be the bottom two this season. I've got Leicestershire down as 7th but in truth there isn't a lot between 2nd and 7th in my predictions in this league and those six sides could really finish in any order. I do believe whoever is 7th will be comfortably clear of the bottom two. Leicestershire have an awful lot going for them this season. Hoggard will go well, Henderson always takes wickets and their young batting lineup, led by the ultra classy James Taylor, have had another year of experience and should begin to flourish this season. Throw in the youth of Nathan Buck who could be very special with the ball and the Foxes have more than enough to beat two very limited opponents in this group. Worcestershire are miles out of their depth in division one. If either Solanki or Moeen Ali doesn't score close to 2000 runs this season they will do nothing and even if they do it's no certainty they do anything. I'm not a fan of doubles over a period of time but Stan James are effectively offering 40% interest on your money on Worcester to finish bottom so it would be rude not to take them up on it. This is 2.67/1 for Leicester to beat the other two and I expect them to do that easily so this is a double I like the look of a lot.

[Tyler]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 Well I mentioned yesterday that I am going to be getting involved in some StanJames group betting and Leicestershire was definitely one of the two I stuck money on. Their 'off-field' problems are a slight concern but I really don't feel that they should be grouped with Derbyshire and Gloucestershire as the Divisions Bottom 3 clubs. Definitely sure they can top that mini-group alongside Essex. - 4pts Essex to win Group E @ 13/8 (via Stan James) Group E consists of Essex, Kent and Surrey and I think Essex has what it takes to come out on top. Kent in my eyes don't pose that much of a threat. They currently don't have an overseas player and will somehow have to ensure they get all of their key players firing before they mount a decent challenge to these two, which incidently has been a struggle recently. Robert Key had a sub-par season last year. Joe Denly has talent but hasn't reached full potential recently and they sold Amjad Khan. Living not too far away from the Oval I have supported Surrey for years and trust me when I say it has been the most frustrating thing ever. They promise so much but deliver so little and the fact that they struggle to win at home makes it even worse. They're 'expected' to be promoted every season, yet have finished in the bottom three two years on the spin. Something is just not quite right at the Oval. Looking at their squad ahead of the season you'd think they ahve the best chance this year. Some good signings has seen their First XI strengthened alot and I like the signing of Arafat. Factor in that Pietersen, Davies, Tremlett and even Dernbach may be missing for quite some time though and you have problems. On top of the above, Mark Ramprakash is currently injured. De Bruyn, Meaker & Maynard are all exciting prospects but I think keeping everyone fit and maintaining quality in their side will be a bit too much for them. Letting go Nel is another thing I don't agree with personally so I think all this will give Essex the edge. Banking on a team that has just been relegated to do well is not something that I would advise often but I just think Essex have the edge here. Despite letting Danish Kaneria go, I think their bowling attack is okay. The batting worries me though. Cook will be available for the first six weeks which is a massive boost but the loss of Shah and Tendo to the IPL is a blow. Hopefully Ravi gets a long stint in the side as we all know he has the ability to change games. They are definitely weaker from their side last year and at the time of writing they dont actually have an overseas player but I just feel the other two teams have alot more problems to deal with than this Essex unit. In James Foster, they have a great captain and I think they'll be there or thereabouts in the race for promotion. As I said earlier I don't really fancy Kent to make any serious noises so I see this as Essex to beat Surrey and I think they'll do that.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 I'm a member at The Oval this year so will probably head down to some of the games, especially their ones against Hampshire although the 40 over game in at Whitgift. Agree with your analysis of those 3 sides :ok

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 A few more for me with a fair few being lined up which will be posted tomorrow. 2pts F.de Wet Top Hampshire Season Bowler 7/1 Stan James Imran Tahir is the overwhelming favourite for this market but at the fans forum on Monday night Giles White confirmed publicly the news that most of us Hampshire members knew already in that Tahir won't be with us until the end of May/beginning of June. That made me think about Danny Briggs as the main spinner. I'm a huge fan of Briggsy but a long winter with the Lions and potential of an England Lions call up this summer puts me off him although I've no problem at all with him being Hampshire's main spinner til Imran arrives. So with Briggsy ruled out that has left me with a seamer to take. I would imagine Hampshire's seam attack to begin with will be Dominic Cork, Kabir Ali, Simon Jones and new recruit Friedel de Wet. If Kabir Ali stays fit all season he'll be a huge threat to my selection of de Wet. It would also be a massive surprise unfortunately. Simon Jones will be nursed through the season so is likely to miss the odd game here and there and Corky will be the back up seamer I think. I think de Wet will share the new ball with either Ali or Jones and I think he'll thrive with it. We saw all his class when England toured South Africa in 2009/10. He has pace, accuracy and he can swing it. He went well in that test series before injury ruled him out of the final test and for some reason he's never been seen since. That's Hampshire's gain here and I think 7/1 on a South African international of one time against a favourite who will miss half the season is a bet well worth taking. 1pt Z.de Bruyn Top Surrey Season Batsman 7/1 Stan James This is another market where the favourite is false. Mark Ramprakash leads the market here but he'll miss up to and possibly more than half the season with a cruciate ligament injury. In behind Ramprakash, for all the money they've thrown at this there isn't a huge amount of standout quality batsmen for the Lions. Steven Davies would be the obvious choice but he could be away with England or England Lions for parts of the summer which is never ideal. I really like the potential Tom Maynard has and I'd expect him to go well at The Oval and then there's the captain but the one I do like is Zander de Bruyn. He scored over 800 runs in division one last season, admittedly at Taunton but even so that isn't a bad tally and he isn't exactly on a horrible batting wicket here so against weaker attacks he could flourish more. 1200 runs could be plenty here and I fancy Surrey's new kolpak signing to register those and bring home the bacon here. 1pt J.Brooks Top Northamptonshire Season Bowler 7/1 Stan James Again we have a very short priced favourite here. This time it's Chaminda Vaas. Now I like Vaas and I think he's a superb overseas player for Northants in all 3 competitions this season but he's getting no younger and if Northants go deep in a one day tournament they may choose to rest him in some four day matches or they may just pick him for the important four day matches. He's just been called into the Sri Lanka squad for the World Cup final so with Sri Lanka over here we can't rule out him being called up to replace a last minute or sudden injury even though he's officially retired from international cricket. So for those reasons I'll pass him over and really that leaves it between Andrew Hall, David Lucas and Jack Brooks. Hall is more a one day bowler. Lucas is effective at this level in this format but I think Brooks is ready to improve a lot. Brooks actually took the most wickets for Northants last year and having had that breakthrough season I expect him to go even better this term. He's built into his bowling and carries pace. I think he can be a real handful for opposing batsmen and at 7/1 I'll take him to top Northants wickets column again this season. 2pts A.Rashid Top Division 1 Spin Bowler 3/1 Stan James Only Imran Tahir, Adil Rashid, Monty Panesar, Murali Kartik and Gary Keedy count in this market. 8 matches must be played by each player else rule 4's and NR's come into play. This is another market with a weak favourite because Tahir doesn't arrive now until late May after his broken thumb. Another player in the list - Murali Kartik - is away at the IPL for the opening 6 weeks of the season so I think we can whittle this one down to 3 men. Rashid, Panesar and Keedy. I'll rule Panesar out immediately because he appears to be the next choice behind Swann for England and so he could be away a lot. I'm not overly sure he's better than Rashid at this moment in time anyway. So we're left with Rashid and Keedy. At Old Trafford Keedy would be a big threat but at Liverpool I'm not so sure he will. The wickets there are generally result wickets and more seamer friendly. So that leaves us with Adil Rashid. Granted he could be away with England/England Lions a little bit but nothing to the extent Tahir and Kartik will be away for. Only Andre Adams and Charl Willoughby took more wickets than Rashid last season and they are both seamers. Tahir played 16 matches last year too. I think Rashid's leg spin is a bigger threat than the left arm spin of Panesar and Keedy so at 3/1 he's the logical choice to be the top spin bowler of this quintet.

[celtic_hoops]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 Post preview if anyone wants it. http://www.2shared.com/document/a_G_iH9r/cricket.html

[celtic_hoops]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 Post preview if anyone wants it. http://www.2shared.com/document/a_G_iH9r/cricket.html

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 Another outright for me. 1.5pts ew D.Masters Top Division 2 Bowler 16/1 Stan James (1/4 1-5) 0.5pts ew S.Meaker Top Division 2 Bowler 40/1 Stan James (1/4 1-5) I think David Masters could take a lot of beating with the ball in this division this year. He was 6th in division 1 last season in a campaign which Essex struggled massively in and with them expected to go better this season I think they will rely on his wickets once more. What I like about Masters' coup last year was he did it on spinning tracks to benefit Kaneria. There is no Kaneria this year so the groundsman might leave a bit of grass on the wickets at Chelmsford to encourage Masters and this overseas seamer Essex are desperate for. Masters is nothing special in pace but in accuracy and length there's few better than him and against weaker batsmen I think he can fill his boots again in leading this Essex attack. A little bit further down the list is Surrey's youngster Stuart Meaker. He's only been on the fringes of the side at The Oval but there's no doubt he has bags of talent. He's got pace and I understand he's started to swing the ball. With Tremlett away with England and Nel released, Surrey will need someone to step up to the plate and support Arafat with the new ball. I think Dernbach is a sack of shit so Meaker can be the one to do that and at a bigger price he could give us a good run for our money at 40/1.

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 2pts ew M.van Jaarsveld Top Division 2 Runscorer 10/1 Bet365 (1/4 1-5) 1pt ew S.Peters Top Division 2 Runscorer 16/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 1-4) Martin van Jaarsveld has been a run machine for many seasons for Kent and was 9th overall in division one last season in a pretty poor Kent campaign. Against these weaker attacks I expect him to go a lot better. 2 years ago when Kent were last in this league MVJ was the top runscorer and a repeat is certainly not out of the question. Only three of last year's top 9 are still in this division this season so anyone getting relegated will have a strong chance. Of the three who are left, Ramprakash is one of them and he'll be out for a while making him less of a threat than normal. Chris Rogers is also still in the league albeit at a new county in Middlesex and he'll go well if he acclimatises to Lord's quickly. The third one is Stephen Peters who followed Ramprakash home in the runs list last season. Unlike Rogers he hasn't moved counties and he'll be right at home in his surroundings and he's double the price. In a young side Peters' runs will be vital. He was one of the major players when England won the u19 World Cup in the late 90's and he's finally begun to deliver at this level now. He was 11 runs clear of Rogers and then 269 runs clear of the next player left in this league from last season. Even if we factor in Essex and Kent's batsmen going well I think Peters is still a decent price at 16/1 and he and van Jaarsveld can be my two against the field.

[infamous]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011 6pts Somerset to win CC Division 1 @ 7/2 with B365 Missed the best prices on this selection but I feel that Somerset are good value favourites in this market. They only narrowly missed out on this title last year, and imo look good to go one better this time. First things first - they bat at Taunton = plenty of bonus points. Next up is the signings that they have made. The bowling attack this year looks very strong with Thomas, Kirby, Hussain, Dockrell, and Kartik around. Early in the season they will also have Mendis - should be a cut above most at this level. Just seems a great blend of variety in the bowling department, and Somerset should definitely find it wasier bowling teams out this year. The batting needs little explaining. Trescothick, Kieswetter, Hildreth, Trego, and Buttler are all very good batsmen who should score runs. They went very close last year with a silly number of draws - this year they have the bowling to convert some of them draws into wins. Very confident back of Trescothick's men here. I'm also currently pondering a big play on Trescothick to be top batsman in the competition. A little unsure though due to the odds - wanted slightly bigger than is available. You have to fancy him purely due to where Somerset play, let alone the fact that he is a top quality batsman. Will have a think about it before playing though.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011

Another outright for me. 1.5pts ew D.Masters Top Division 2 Bowler 16/1 Stan James (1/4 1-5) 0.5pts ew S.Meaker Top Division 2 Bowler 40/1 Stan James (1/4 1-5) I think David Masters could take a lot of beating with the ball in this division this year. He was 6th in division 1 last season in a campaign which Essex struggled massively in and with them expected to go better this season I think they will rely on his wickets once more. What I like about Masters' coup last year was he did it on spinning tracks to benefit Kaneria. There is no Kaneria this year so the groundsman might leave a bit of grass on the wickets at Chelmsford to encourage Masters and this overseas seamer Essex are desperate for. Masters is nothing special in pace but in accuracy and length there's few better than him and against weaker batsmen I think he can fill his boots again in leading this Essex attack. A little bit further down the list is Surrey's youngster Stuart Meaker. He's only been on the fringes of the side at The Oval but there's no doubt he has bags of talent. He's got pace and I understand he's started to swing the ball. With Tremlett away with England and Nel released, Surrey will need someone to step up to the plate and support Arafat with the new ball. I think Dernbach is a sack of shit so Meaker can be the one to do that and at a bigger price he could give us a good run for our money at 40/1.

Not sure if you used them for the 5th place? but VC go 20/1 Masters and 50/1 Meakers but only 4 places on the EW....

[PerryPFC]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011

Post preview if anyone wants it. http://www.2shared.com/document/a_G_iH9r/cricket.html

They quote Jaarsveld as their recommended bet for top div 2 bat Eachway with Boyles.... yet Boyles aren't running eachway odds on that book.... :unsure

[kevshat]

Re: Cricket: County Championship 2011

Not sure if you used them for the 5th place? but VC go 20/1 Masters and 50/1 Meakers but only 4 places on the EW....

I want the 5th place mate. Wicket markets don't tend to be seperated by as many as runs markets so the extra place could come in handy for ties etc.

They quote Jaarsveld as their recommended bet for top div 2 bat Eachway with Boyles.... yet Boyles aren't running eachway odds on that book.... :unsure

That's how you get to look so good :lol. 2.5pts ew J.Hildreth Top Division 1 batsman 10/1 Skybet (1/4 1-4) James Hildreth had a fantastic season last year and really showcased the talent we know he has. Only Adam Lyth outscored him last year and I'm not sure Lyth will go so well this season with more pressure on his shoulders. Hildreth is a really fine batsman. He hit 7 centuries last season then went and skippered the England Lions side in the Caribbean over the winter and hit 2 more tons out there so we know he's in really good form. Although Taunton isn't the batting paradise it once was it's still a mighty fine wicket to bat on and that gives him a major advantage. I believe Trescothick begun the downturn of his career last year especially with the captaincy burden in play as well. It's rare that captains perform to the best of their ability especially in today's climate where captaining a side involves so much more than on the field stuff. He finished over 100 runs ahead of all bar 3 who reoppose him here last season and I think there's improvement to come in Hildreth and with that in mind I'll have a strong outright punt on the Somerset batsman here.