SPRING MILE DONCASTER SATURDAY

[richard-westwood]

this is the consolation race for the lincoln and as such has similar trends to the big race ....... you are looking for a young ,unexposed horse who doesnt nescessarily have to be in form as 7-15 had finished 10th or worse lto !!!! so ive taken all the present declarations from (1) dream lodge to (31) dhaamer at present for the purposes of narrowing the field im going to concentrate on horses 4 and 5 yrs old which the vast majority of winners have come from ...this leaves : 2,3,5,7,9,10,11,12 ,15,16,17,19,20,21,22,23,25,31 67 horses that raced in the same class or higher lto have failed to win up until last year so im going to discard all horses that fit this: leaving : 7,9,11,17,21,31 so ive managed to narrow a 31 runner field to 6 horses !!!! with just 2 trends: we have : dance and dance 16/1 eton forever 8/1 brave echo 16/1 medicinal compound 20/1 hacienda 25/1 dhaamer 10/1 horses that ran 1m1f or more lto 0-78 so discard dhaamer horses priced 25/1 or bigger are 1-122 so at present odds hacienda could be ruled out unless he shortened at race time so at present that leaves us with a shortlist of 4 horses: dance and dance 16/1 eton forever 8/1 brave echo 16/1 medicinal compound 20/1 obviously at these odds you could back all 4 horses and still make a profit but as i like to go in hard on a value bet im looking to narrow this down further if i can ..... the only other trend i can find is that 9-15 prior to last year had run at a grade 1 course prior to winning here next time out (60%) !!! and if you apply that rule then only 1 horse remains: DANCE AND DANCE *HACIENDA RAN AT NEWMARKET LTO ALSO BUT WAS 14 LENGTHS BEHING DANCE AND DANCE BUT STILL QUALIFYS IF PRICE FALLS BELOW 25/1 GENERALLY so subject to any major changes and if dance and dance gets into this race then he will be my selection * dance and dance has also got 5lb claimer on board which efectively takes his hcap mark to 2lb below his last win so no brainer for me ill be looking for 10 pts e.w at around 16/1

[TheRat]

Re: SPRING MILE DONCASTER SATURDAY There is already a thread mate