Catch those 2 years olds

[jtw1]

For a lot of punters trying to find a potential winner in a group of unraced 2 yo's is akin to finding a needle in a haystack . However i believe that 70 - 80% of runners in these races can be discounted on a number of counts . The first is probably the most obvious and thats how well the trainer is a getting these types of horses to win First Time Out season after season and in particular if they have early season 2 yo winners . Also , with regard to the stable , is the jockey booking of any significance ? Next is how may the sires influence affect their off-spring and by that i mean is he/she by a sire who won at sprint distance or over middle distances , did they show a preference for extremes of going etc. I'll try and pinpoint runners which i think have these conditions to suit in the coming weeks and we'll see how things pan out . I'll be comparing the strike-rate and Prize money won last season of each sire who has a runners in each race as well as their optimum winning distance . The Racing Post website [ bloodstock ] and British 2yo Racing website is where i'll be gathering the relevant info from . Leicester 2.20 2yo Median Auction Stakes over 5f - G/F forecast ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 - DOUGIE BOY - Trained by Bill Turner and a stable well known for early season winners but his 2 yo record in march/april since 2007 has only been 4 wins from 54 runners . His FTO % is only 4.23 over the past 10 seasons . Sire was a winner mainly over 7f 2- JACK WHO'S HE - Trained by David Evans who has had 17 wins from 86 runners in mar/apr and indeed he had a 2yo winner on the AW at Kempton last week . FTO % = 7.2 over 10 seasons [ a poor 3% last year lowered the average ] Sire was G1 winner at 5/6f. N Callan has a 21% strike rate for the yard 3- ZEEMAN - Tained by N Vaughn who has yet to have a 2yo winner on turf , albeit from only 19 runners over 4 seasons. Sire won from 5-7f 4- COPPER FALLS - Trained by B Powell who has had only a single 2yo victory on turf since 2007 from 82 runners. Same sire as DOUGIE BOY . 5- DAWN LIGHTNING - Trained by A McCabe who had no FTO winners in 2006/7/8 , has FTO wins in '09 + '10 but in mar/apr has had only 1 win from 22 runners in 10 seasons. Sire was a G1 sprinter. 6- DEAM WHISPERER - Trained by D F Davis who had not had a 2yo winner on turf since '07 from 61 runners. Sprinter sired. 7- WAYBULOO - Trained by G Kelleway who has had 3 wins from only 8 runners in mar/apr since 2008 . She had no FTO winners in 2008/9 but had 2 FTO in 2010. Sire was G1 / 2 winning sprinter P Hanaghan has a 20% strike rate for the yard , although no 2yo wins Summary - JACK WHO'S HE may well start as favourite i'm afraid but the fact that the stable is well used to having them fit to win 1st time [ 2 yo winner last week ] , is sprint-bred and , noticably , N Callan usually rides for G KELLEWAY for who he won at Kempton last week but has apparently chosen to ride for Evans here , makes it the obvious choice. WAYBULOO is the danger . *note - this takes a fair bit of time so i'll be looking to minimise the process

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Catch those 2 years olds Great write up as ever mate. I'll take the 2/1 + on offer at betfair tonight. I know it may be bigger tomorrow but I'm happy with the price and I'll take the risk.:clap