Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread

[StuSimmy]

Well it start's tomorrow at Catterick and I really can't wait at all, as you will see from my flat thread last season it really was such a yo-yo of a season for me with many ups and many downs but I did end up in slight profit and this year I aim to better that whilst being a bit more disciplined. Last years figures: Bets made: 351 Won - 45 Places - 21 Pts Staked: 438.65 Pts Returned: 453.26 Profit/(Loss): 16.61 Link: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f13/simmys-2010-flat-thread-98832/ Will be back in here later with one bet for tomorrow and any others I decide to have will likely be placed tomorrow. Good luck everyone :hope

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 15:20 Catterick Alan Swinbank's Royal Swain is my selection in this class 4 handicap. This gelding made his racetrack debut in November 2009 when winning a national hunt flat race at Carlisle over 14 furlongs in soft ground. He was then sent to Doncaster in March 2010 for another national hunt race, this time over 17 furlongs in good ground where he beat 14 other runners. Appeared at the Grand National meeting on the Saturday in yet another national hunt race where he finished 6/20 in a grade 2 race which was a very creditable effort. Swinbank then targeted the flat for this horse and he was entered in a class 5 maiden at Thirsk over today's trip of 12 furlongs in May 2010. He finished 2nd that day but two weeks later over the same course and distance, he broke his maiden tag on the flat, winning by 1 and a half lengths. Disappointed in his handicap debut at Musselburgh off a mark of 73 before finishing 2nd over 13 furlongs at Ayr (mark of 72) and then winning over today's course and distance in soft ground off a mark of 74. His last run of the flat season came at Ayr over 15 furlongs where he finished 5/6 in heavy ground, only finished 3 lengths off the winner so it wasn't a bad run but I feel the heavy ground and step back up in trip caught him out. Made his all weather debut in November where he was very disappointing but switched back to turf today will give him every chance again off a mark just 3lbs higher than his course and distance success last season. Still room for improvement due to fact he is still lightly raced (10 runs to date) and looks to be on a fair handicap mark. Swinbank holds a 15% strike rate at the track which is another positive and add to that McDonald is back on board who did win on him last season for the course and distance win. 1pt win Royal Swain @ 9/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[Mirage]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Good luck with this thread mate! Here's hoping you get off to a flyer as i am on Swinbank's charge too ;)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Cheers mate :ok I think he will go off shorter than 9/2 tomorrow so very pleased with the price I've got. :hope he goes in.

[De Selby]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Best of luck mate, really looking forward to the Flat this year myself, don't generally get stuck into it until Epsom though.

[chris34]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Good luck mate have a good season!!

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Thanks for the comments guys :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread A second place starts things off, not a winner but could have been worse I guess. Thought he ran a great race as did the winner and the two of them may be worth keeping an eye on next time out.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 16:20 Musselburgh Mark Johnston's Guest Book looks like a potential improver this season having only had 6 runs to date and due to the fact his best effort to date came on his last run in 2010 I expect more to come from this gelding. He had three races in 2009 as a 2 year old where he won a maiden at Chepstow over 7 furlongs on his 2nd start after a 6th place finish at Newmarket on his debut. He then entered handicap company off a mark of 79 in a 7 furlong race at Ayr. He finished 2nd in a 10 runner field finishing only 2 lengths off the winner before being put away for the winter. Was nearly a year before he was next on course when he reappeared at Beverley over 7 furlongs in August 2010 finishing 4/13 off a mark of 83. He was then stepped up to 10 furlongs at Chester where he didn't have the best of runs but Chester is a bit of a specialist track so that run doesn't worry me and I also feel the trip may have just stretched him a bit. His last run as a 3 year old came off a mark of 82 and he produced a great effort in the mud at Epsom over 9 furlongs, again Epsom is a bit of a specialist track so I was really impressed with that run. The 3rd place, who was 5 lengths behind, has won since and the winner has placed off a mark 6lbs higher in a hot handicap at York. Guest Book has been raised 3lbs for that run but is dropped in class today and also tries the mile trip for the first time which is a trip I think will suit him just fine. I think there is plenty in favour for him today over the other horses in the race and he is definetely the one to beat for a stable in good form. 2pt win Guest Book @ 3/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Two seconds from two runners so far :sad On the right track it seems but frustrating all the same.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 14:05 Doncaster Took me a while to get this down to the one I've decided to have a bet on in what is a very good opener in the class 2 Spring Mile handicap. Many of these are in with strong claims but I have turned my attentions to one of the lightly raced horses and one of which I fancy to improve under a new trainer this season. Breakheart has made the switch from Andrew Balding to Michael Dods and makes his debut for the yard today. The four year old has only had 9 runs to date so he doesn't have much mileage on the clock. In 2009 he appeared in two maiden races as a 2 year old, made his racecourse debut at Leicester over 7 furlongs where he was always behind after making a mess at the start. He was then upped in trip to a mile at Bath where he finished 2nd in a 15 runner race. Reappeared in May 2010 for his first run on the all weather where he won a maiden race at Lingfield over a mile. This shows he goes well fresh which could be key to his chances today. Entered handicap company off a mark of 81 which he won off of at the first attempt at Ayr, again over the mile trip. Was then upped in trip after that up to 10 furlongs where he finished a close 2nd twice in this grade in handicap company at Newmarket and Ascot off marks of 85 and 89 before a poor effort at Haydock off a mark of 91. The going was soft that day which appears to be against him as all his best efforts have been in good ground or good to firm ground. Was 5th at Newbury on his penultimate start, only finished 3 lengths off the winner and appeared to have every chance at one point before staying on at the one pace inside the final furlong. Finally he raced over 9 furlongs in a 35 runner handicap at Newmarket when last on the racecourse. Again this was in soft going so the fact he produced a lame effort that day does not bother me. Is back down to a mile today which seems to be his most favoured trip consider his form over the trip reads 211, the ground conditions should be fine and he has proven he can go well fresh so there is a lot in his favour today. 0.5pts E/W Breakheart @ 16/1 (Skybet - 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5) Taking a chance that he won't be a bigger price tomorrow and the fact Skybet have an extra place on offer then I decided to take my bet with them.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 15:10 Doncaster: Despite Richard Fahey's poor record in the race I have decided to go for two of his in today's class 2 Lincoln handicap. Fist off is last year's clear runner-up Prime Exhibit who I was impressed with for last season's run. He is locally trained and I heard a whisper for him last year so for him to come home in 2nd place shows he ran a big race as expected. I've not heard anything this year but the fact he has run in the trial for this race again suggests to me that Fahey always had this race in mind for him. He is 4lbs higher than last year's mark but when you take into consideration the claimers on board (Willie Carson 3lb last year, Lee Topliss 5lb this year) then he is effectively only 2lb higher. Last year he was 6th in the trial run off a mark 4lbs lower than his 3rd placed finish in the trial this year. He was denied a clear run last year which suggests he would have finished closer but he was also hampered in this years race so I think he done very well to finish in 3rd place after staying on inside the final furlong. He has yet to win over a mile but from 5 runs over the trip he has finished 2nd twice and 4th on the three other occasions. All his winning form has come over 7 furlongs but I do believe today's trip does suit him. Low draw seems to be the place to be and he has a nice draw in stall one so hopefully Topliss can get him out the stalls well and settled early on. My second bet in this lies with Irish Heartbeat who loves it round here having won 2 races from 2 runs, one over today's course and distance and one over 7 furlongs. He seems quite a frustrating horse to follow despite having a 20% win strike rate as hes not the most consistent of horses. He won last year's Spring Mile off a mark of 89 after keeping on well inside the final furlong to win the race by a head. A few disappointing efforts followed that, all off a mark of 93 but he returned here over 7 furlongs and won another class 2 handicap off a mark of 91 although Lee Topliss claimed 5lbs that day which may have been key to his victory. He would probably prefer the ground to be a bit softer but his win here over 7f was in good ground so he can definetely cope on dryer ground. 1pt E/W Prime Exhibit @ 10/1 (Bet365 - BOG - 5 places) 0.5pts E/W Irish Heartbeat @ 11/1 (Bet365 - BOG - 5 places)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread PS it should say locally owned not trained in my write-up, clearly wasn't 100% awake :$

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Not a great start at all, not sure if I will bother tomorrow or not.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Hopefully a change of luck today :hope 16:40 Windsor This handicap should be quite a tight contest with several horses in with strong claims. This should be a fast and furious sprint and I will be taking my chances with Ajjaadd who is drawn nicely in stall 2. This 5 year old has raced 16 times in total which is not an awful lot for his age and from this he has nothced up 3 wins and 6 2nd and 3rd placed finishes. It took him until February last year to break his maiden tag in what was his 6th race after coming close in his previous 2 races. This came on the all weather over the minimum trip at Lingfield. He then entered handicap company off a mark of 70, finished 7/10 at Lingfield which was a bit of a poor effort but he was dropped 3lbs for that to a mark of 67 which he won off of next time out on what was only his 2nd try on the turf. He won in good to firm ground at Brighton over today's trip of 5 furlongs. Since then his form has been mostly consistent with 2 places off a mark of 71 and a win, again at Brighton, off a mark of 69. Had a run on the AW on the 19th of March at Lingfield over 5 furlongs where he finished 3/7 off today's mark of 72. He hasn't won fresh before so I think that was a chance to blow off any cobwebs and he will surely strip a lot fitter for today's race. This will only be his 7th run on turf and I am confident he can win off this mark of 72, especially considering it is only 3lbs higher than his last win at Brighton. Ground conditions won't pose a problem for him and as already stated the draw has been kind to him. Steve Drowne knows him well now and was on board for 2 of his 3 career wins. Out of the others I think the lightly raced Galatian is an interesting runner, the trainer form put me off a bit and the fact he hasn't won fresh before but I believe there is definetely a handicap or two in him this season. 1pt E/W Ajjaadd @ 11/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 3rd today so I am hitting the crossbar a lot, slight profit today thanks to the each way pick. Will be on I will be keeping an eye on, seemed to pick up late on but had a bit too much to do by the time he did eventually pick up.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 14:10 Pontefract Richard Guest's Nolecce looks to still be on the upgrade after a win at Kempton over 10 furlongs last time out. He's only had 14 races to date notching up 3 wins and 3 places in the process. Took him 7 attempts to get off the mark when he won a class 6 handicap at Newcastle over today's mile trip in good ground off a mark of 51. He then trotted up at Newcastle again in the mud 3 weeks later off a mar kof 56 with a 2nd placed finish at Yarmouth sandwiched in between. Since then hes had one run over hurdles and 4 runs on the all weather over the winter which means he will strip fit for today's race. Raised 7lbs on the all weather for his win at Kempton LTO but only raised 3lbs on turf so he has a great chance of following up that win with another here today. 2pt win Nolecce @ 5/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Really has been a poor start for me but hopefully things can change tomorrow: 15:10 Beverley Going to take one horse each way in this race which looks a competitive sprint. Lenny Bee had a decent campaign as a three year old in 2009 with 2 wins and 6 places from 11 runs and although last season was not the best, I do fancy him to bounce back with a nice campaign this year. Today hemakes his seasonal reappearance in this race for the second year in a row, a race which he landed last year off a mark of 85. He ran out a 1 and a half length winner from a good draw in stall 1 and the draw has been kind to him again this year coming out of stall 2. There is a particularly strong draw bias here over 5 furlongs with four of the first five home last year coming from stalls 1-6 (if you watch the race the stall numbers will be high though because of the change but stall 17 last year is stall number 1 this year). This was Lenny Bee's only victory in 2010 after competing in only 6 more races, all off marks of 90-92. He did manage two places from those 6 runs, both of which came on the all weather. Runs off a mark of 90 today but Dale Swift takes off 5lbs which effectively takes him down to a mark of 85 last year which is the mark he landed this race off of. I did like the chances of Fol Hollow but the draw has not been so kind to him coming out from stall number 11. He does tick a lot of other boxes though and at a nice price could be worth chancing but one I am not going to take due to the strong draw bias. Let's hope I don't regret this decision come tomorrow. 1pt Each Way Lenny Bee @ 7/1 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 16:40 Beverley Bryan Smart sends just the one runner to Beverley today and although it isn't the longest of journey's from North Yorkshire (around 48 miles) I still find it interesting that he just sends the one runner. This is a tight looking handicap but not a strong looking one, I found it quite hard to make a case for a lot of these runners but out of those I find Unwrapit could be in with a chance at a nice price. This horse made her debut at Newcastle over 6 furlongs in May 2010 where she finished 7/9 in a class 4 maiden race. That was her sole appearance in 2010 and she made her reappearance on the last day of January this year over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton. I think she would have finished a lot closer than she did had she not been hampered 2 furlongs out as she did weaken soon after which dented any chances. Better effort at Southwell next time out where she finished 2/6 in a maiden race before going back to Wolverhampton where she finished 3/10. Was a long way off the winner (4 and 3/4 lengths) but that winner won again yesterday at Pontefract off a mark of 75 to boost the form a bit. She only finished a neck off 2nd that day and was a fair bit clear of the 4th placed finisher. She was then sent back to Southwell, this time to make her handicap debut off a mark of 65 where she was also stepped up to a mile for the first time, was a bit one paced inside the final furlong but hard to judge whether she didn't quite get the trip based on that effort in my opinion, especially in a 3 runner race where it turns into more of a tactical affair. Today's extended 7 furlongs here should give us more of an idea and hopefully this may be the type of test she needs. Drawn nicely in stall 2 at a track where there is a strong low draw bias so another positive in his favour. He is also going to be visored for the first time today which will hopefully have a positive effect on her. 0.5pts E/W Unwrapit @ 16/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Just can't get started it seems, similar last season so not worrying yet but it is rather frustrating.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Change of luck today hopefully, had my eye on one or two more but no time to do a another write-up just now, one is later on the card so I might find time later. 15:55 Ripon Several unexposed runners line up for this class 3 handicap for 3 year olds and it's hard to discount a few of these. Out of those I fancy Polar Kite to have a good season in this company and therefore my money will be going on him. Richard Fahey's gelding improved with every run last season which gives me every reason to believe that there is a lot to come from this horse asa 3 year old. Made his debut in May 2010 where he finished a 3 length 3rd at Haydock over 6 furlongs in quick ground. The form of this race has been boosted as the winner went on to win a group 3 race later in the season and has an official rating of 107. The fourth placed finisher (almost 3 lengths behind Polar Kite) also went on to win later in the season in a class 3 handicap at Ascot off a mark of 82 and is now rated 87. Polar Kite was slowly away on debut but did stay on well towards the end of this race which suggested his likeliness to improve next time out which he did when finishing 2nd at Musselburgh over 7 furlongs, this time only going down by quarter of a length. He then went on to win at the 3rd attempt when winning a class 3 maiden at York over 7 furlongs, running out a 2 and a quarter length winner. That was the first time Paul Hanagan was on board and he takes the ride again today and should be confident of another win. Steps up to a mile today but the manner he won in atYork suggests the extra furlong should suit and could potentially bring out more improvement in this horse. Opening handicap of 81 is definetely fair and one I believe he will win off of today. Mariachi Man was one I liked also but my selection is slightly less exposed and the stable is in better form which swayed my final decision, there will be races for him this season also but hopefully not today. 2pt win Polar Kite @ 3/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread

Change of luck today hopefully, had my eye on one or two more but no time to do a another write-up just now, one is later on the card so I might find time later. 15:55 Ripon Several unexposed runners line up for this class 3 handicap for 3 year olds and it's hard to discount a few of these. Out of those I fancy Polar Kite to have a good season in this company and therefore my money will be going on him. Richard Fahey's gelding improved with every run last season which gives me every reason to believe that there is a lot to come from this horse asa 3 year old. Made his debut in May 2010 where he finished a 3 length 3rd at Haydock over 6 furlongs in quick ground. The form of this race has been boosted as the winner went on to win a group 3 race later in the season and has an official rating of 107. The fourth placed finisher (almost 3 lengths behind Polar Kite) also went on to win later in the season in a class 3 handicap at Ascot off a mark of 82 and is now rated 87. Polar Kite was slowly away on debut but did stay on well towards the end of this race which suggested his likeliness to improve next time out which he did when finishing 2nd at Musselburgh over 7 furlongs, this time only going down by quarter of a length. He then went on to win at the 3rd attempt when winning a class 3 maiden at York over 7 furlongs, running out a 2 and a quarter length winner. That was the first time Paul Hanagan was on board and he takes the ride again today and should be confident of another win. Steps up to a mile today but the manner he won in atYork suggests the extra furlong should suit and could potentially bring out more improvement in this horse. Opening handicap of 81 is definetely fair and one I believe he will win off of today. Mariachi Man was one I liked also but my selection is slightly less exposed and the stable is in better form which swayed my final decision, there will be races for him this season also but hopefully not today. 2pt win Polar Kite @ 3/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

Finally a winner :nana :nanaWon at 9/2 as well which was a cracking price in the end!! Got one more bet in mind but I'm still pondering over it.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 13:35 Thirsk I'm siding with the lightly raced Henry Morgan here. Bryan Smart's four year old has only seen the racecourse three times, all of which have been over today's trip of six furlongs. Made his debut at Doncaster in June 2010 where he finished 3rd in a five runner field. He then headed to Hamilton just over a month later, again in a class 5 maiden race, made all that day and ran out a half length winner. The second place has boosted that form since with 2 wins since (1 maiden race and 1 handicap race - off a mark of 58) and has also placed in handicap compnay off a mark of 64. Henry Morgan returned to Hamilton again for his handicap debut in August where he ran out a 1 length winner off a mark of 60. He took up the running over a furlong out that day and again proved hard to pass when staying on strongly inside the final furlong. Comes back for his reappearance today off a mark of 65, a mark which he can certainly win off. Stable is in good enough form and from a favourable high draw, this horse has a lot in his favour today. 1pt win Henry Morgan @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 14:10 Thirsk Oratory makes his debut for Geoffrey Harker in this race today and I believe this horse ran pretty consistently last season for Richard Hannon without actually getting his head in front. Ran over 7,8,9 and 10 furlongs in only 8 races in 2010 so he was tried at various trips over such a short amount of races which didn't seem ideal in my opinion. He won his maiden over today's trip of 7 furlongs and maybe in time he will be raised in trip but for his seasonal reappearance I believe this trip will be ideal for him. He has also placed twice over this trip yet over all other distances he has only managed to place twice. Has a low draw which is ideal here over 7 furlongs and should be in with a chance off his lowest mark since going handicapping. 1pt e/w Oratory @ 7/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Let's hope this thread can land another winner at tonight's meeting at Windsor, just the one selection for just now but may have one lined up for later on. 17:00 Windsor Richard Fahey's Dark Lane makes a return to turf for the first time since September 2009 off a 6lb lower mark due to his runs on the all weather. I feel this horse has proven he is better on turf considering both his wins have been on that surface with 0 wins from 6 on the all weather. Made his all weather in November 2010 and although he has yet to get his head in front on the surface, he has run pretty consistently in my opinion with only one defeat from six being over 3 lengths with the others all being under a margin of 3 lengths. He has won off a mark of 80 on turf which came in 2009 over today's trip of 6 furlongs at Haydock in a class 4 handicap. In a class 5 race today for his turf reappearance and I feek he is more than capable of making a winning return to the turf. 2pt win Dark Lane @ 7/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread That will do :nana

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Some cracking racing today at Newmarket but I am just going to take a back seat and watch today as I am finding a lot of the racing too tough to call, especially with so many that are lightly raced and likely improvers so at this early stage in the season I would rather just play safe and watch :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 15:35 Newmarket 13 runners currently line up for this listed race over 6 furlongs and I fancy previous course and distance winner Society Rock to land this on his return to the track. Not definite that he will be fully wound up, but if he is then he is certainly the one to beat in my opinion. Has been off the track since July last year but he did win on his reapperance last season at Ascot over 6 furlongs in a listed event so I expect similar of him today. He was only off track around 3 months less before making his reappearance last season so it does go to show that he runs well fresh and I am willing to put my faith in James Fanshawe having him ready for this race. All three of this horses wins have came over today's trip of 6 furlongs, one of which over this course and distance. Has contested in two listed races to date where he has recorded one win and one second place, he also didn't disgrace himself in two group 1 races last season when finishing 2/24 at Ascot in the Golden Jubilee and 7/14 over this course and distance in the July Cup when last on the track. He is a group winner in the making in my opinion and I am surprised to see him entered in this company being honest and even more surprised at the price on offer considering he ticks a lot of boxes. 2pt win Society Rock @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Very disappointing run today, might have a bet for tomorrow but away for the weekend so might just leave it as a quiet weekend then catch up with all the action when I am back and ready for the midweek racing.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 17:25 Newbury Nom Dom is still relatively lightly raced on the flat having only had 10 runs on turf and the 1 run on the all weather. His only win on turf came at Windsor over 12 furlongs on his reappearance in 2009 off a mark of 65. He was raised 5lbs for that win and ran pretty consistently for the reaminder of the season without actually winning with several second and third placed efforts which lead to him running off a mark as high as 80. Gets in off 75 today for his first run on the flat since October 2009 so he looks to be getting in off a decent enough mark considering he has won twice over hurdles at the start of the year (rated 124) one of which came over today's trip of 2 miles. That should see him strip a bit fitter for today's race and I believe Hughie Morrison will have him fully wound up for today's race and he should be the one to beat here. Both his wins over hurdles came in slower ground but his maiden win on the flat did come in similar quick conditions so he seems to be able to cope with any ground so the quick conditions today are not a concern for me. 1pt win Nom Dom @ 4/1 (WillHill - BOG)