Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Will update my figures later on tonight. For the meantime, onto today: 15:50 Redcar The lightly raced Buzz Law is my selection in this class 5 handicap over a mile. He's only had 8 races to date and he looks to be a potential improver after his win on his reappearance at Nottingham just 12 days ago. His first three runs came over 5,6 and 7 furlongs in maiden races where he didn't show much form at all but he did win in his first race when sent handicapping off a mark of 64 at Newmarket over 7 furlongs. Had three more races in handicap company to see out the season, two in softer conditions which didn't seem to suit so I feel those runs can be ignored and a 3rd placed finish at York over 7 furlongs in quick conditions off a mark of 65. He was closing in well near the finish that day so had that race been over a mile then he may have just won that day. Was tried again over today's trip of a mile on his reapperance as previously mentioned and although he only won by half a length, it was quite a comfortable win for him and I fancy him to notch up another win off a 3lb higher mark today. 2pt win Buzz Law @ 9/4 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 16:20 Redcar:

Let's hope this thread can land another winner at tonight's meeting at Windsor, just the one selection for just now but may have one lined up for later on. 17:00 Windsor Richard Fahey's Dark Lane makes a return to turf for the first time since September 2009 off a 6lb lower mark due to his runs on the all weather. I feel this horse has proven he is better on turf considering both his wins have been on that surface with 0 wins from 6 on the all weather. Made his all weather in November 2010 and although he has yet to get his head in front on the surface, he has run pretty consistently in my opinion with only one defeat from six being over 3 lengths with the others all being under a margin of 3 lengths. He has won off a mark of 80 on turf which came in 2009 over today's trip of 6 furlongs at Haydock in a class 4 handicap. In a class 5 race today for his turf reappearance and I feek he is more than capable of making a winning return to the turf. 2pt win Dark Lane @ 7/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

Wrote this about Dark Lane for his run at Windsor last monday night which he did go on to win. That was in an apprentice handicap so he gets away unpenalised for that win and I fancy him to follow that win up with another. He is up in grade today but to be honest it doesn't look the strongest of races to me and he should make a bold bid to follow up here today. Paul Hanagan takes the ride today and although he has yet to win on board this horse I feel that stat can be changed today. 1.5pt win Dark Lane @ 5/2 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread One winner from two today for 3pts profit so can't really complain, just nice to have picked another winner. Away to look at tonight's card, not sure if I will have a bet but generally do quite well at Windsor so I may well have a bet.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Update: Royal Swain (-1.00) Guest Book (-2.00) Breakheart (-1.00) Prime Exhibit (-2.00) Irish Heartbeat (-1.00) Ajjaadd (3rd @ 11/2) + 0.38 Nolecce (-2.00) Lenny Bee (-2.00) Unwrapit (-1.00) Polar Kite (1st @ 9/2) + 9.00 Henry Morgan (-1.00) Oratory (-2.00) Dark Lane (1st @ 3/1 - 7/2 ADV) + 7.00 Society Rock (-2.00) Nom Dom (-1.00) Buzz Law (1st @ 9/4) + 4.50 Dark Lane (1.50) Figures: Bets made: 17 Won: 3 Places: 1 Pts Staked: 27.50 Pts Returned: 28.88 Profit/(Loss): 1.38 Slight profit after 3 winners (9/2, 7/2 and 9/4) and one place (11/2) so it could have been a lot worse, especially after the poor start to things.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 15:10 Pontefract Nice looking class 2 handicap this with 13 runners lining up. It tends to be a favourable low draw over 6 furlongs here so I ruled out a few of the high drawn runners early on. Hoof It does warrant favouritism and looks to be on the upgrade, only 5lbs higher than his win on his last race of 2010 but for me he hasn't proven he can go well fresh and the stable isn't setting the world alight formwise at the minute so at the short price I am willing to take him on and go for something each way as there is value out there. My selection lies with Tombi who is making his debut for his new yard today. His best form has come over 6 furlongs and in quick conditions, he gets both today so he should relish today's conditions. He has proven he can go well fresh previously with two wins on his seasonal reappearance so if Geoffrey Harker has him fully wound up today then he must have chances. Has previously been rated as high as 104 and is now rated 93 for today's race which is only 1lb above his highest winning mark, Michael O'Connell takes off another 3lbs though which means he is well handicapped for today's race, especially considering this is the lowest mark he will have run off since that win which is why the length of time since his last win (May 2008) doesn't worry me. Drawn in stall 6 which isn't the worst of draws and his prominent racing style will be suited to this track. 1pt E/W Tombi @ 10/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 14:35 Epsom I was a big fan of John Dunlop's gelding Harlestone Times last year and he progressed well despite only having three runs. He is still lightly raced having only had 7 runs to date so is likely to come on even more this season and should have every chance of landing the spoils in this tough looking handicap if fit and ready to go on reappearance. He is still unexposed over this trip having only had the one run over 12 furlongs and it was clear to see that he relished the step up in trip on his last appearance in 2010 when running out a 5 length winner at Brighton. Is raised 10lbs for that but I still think he is well handicapped off this mark of 89. Ted Durcan heads to Epsom for just this ride tomorrow and he has won on his only previous ride on board this horse. Harelstone Times has form of 321 when going left-handed and handles sharp tracks well with form of 211 (2 runs at Brighton and 1 run at Goodwood) so he should take well to the track at Epsom. This is a tough looking handicap and many other's will hold chances so I am just going to play small stakes on this race. 1pt win Harlestone Times @ 11/2 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 14:00 Epsom Looks to be plenty of pace at the top end of the draw here and with that already been suggested as the draw bias at this track over 5 furlongs then I have decided to look into those drawn high. My selection will come from stall 12 of 14 which looks a perfect draw. Archers Road had a busy campaign as a 2 year old where he placed 6 times and won twice from 16 runs ending the season on a mark of 97. 6 of those races were in listed and group company so he really was competing in some top races where he ran fairly consistently. Won on his reappearance last season in his first race in handicap company off a mark of 95 and that turned out to be his only win of the season with only 1 place from his remaining 6 runs but it can be argued that he did run consistently enough in defeat and only two of those runs came on his favoured quick ground. He gets that here today and off a mark of 93, I fancy him to win on his reappearance for the second season in a row. David Barron has his yard in good form and although he saddles two in the race, this one seems to be his first string with Ryan Moore being an interesting jockey booking. 1pt win Archers Road @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Archers Road ran a terrible race but Harlestone Times stayed on like a train and finished 3rd, one to keep an eye on for me, may have even backed him each way at the price of 8/1 but never mind.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 17:40 Musselburgh Tim Easterby's lightly raced Senate Majority should have a chance of landing this handicap race over 5 furlongs. Took him 9 attempts to get off the mark when he finally won a maiden race at Southwell over 6 furlongs in November last year. Has run conssitently twice in handicap company since off marks of 60 and 61. Drops down to a mark of 60 again for today's race after coming 3/17 at Ripon over today's trip in quick ground on the 16th of April. He did finish first of 6 in his group and I fancy his chances today in what looks an easier task in a weaker race. 2pt win Senate Majority @ 9/4 (Blue Square)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 14:25 Warwick Class 5 handicap with 14 runners to open the card today and my money lies with Stevie Gee who put in an encouraging run on his turf reappearance two weeks ago at Windsor where he went down by only a head to Dark Lane. Is raised 4lbs for that effort up to a mark of 73 but has won off a mark as high as 92 in the past. Despite that coming in 2006 he has won off marks of 80 in 2008 and 2009 and a mark of 71 last season so he is handicapped to go in again soon in my opinion. All his wins in handicap company have been in class 3 and 4 races so he should have no trouble landing this race in a lower grade. His last three runs have been in this grade and they have been consistent enough, even on the all weather where he doesn't act as well on as he does on turf. He will appreciate the quick ground today and is drawn in stall 6/14 which is handy enough with the low draw being favoured over 6 furlongs here. It looks like the pace of the race will come from stalls 1 and 2 as well so he will be close enough to the pace and I expect him to tuck in behind the leaders before making a move in the final 2 furlongs. 2pt win Stevie Gee @ 9/2 (Boylesports - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread On a bit of a poor run again :sad

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 15:05 Yarmouth Chris Wall has a good record here at Yarmouth and although it is hard to split his two runners in this race as the most fancied by him I will be siding with Oh So Saucy who has a good course record. Even the jockey bookings don't give any signals but this 7 year old has two wins here, both over 7 furlongs but he has proven himself over today's trip of a mile with his last two wins coming over this trip. This will be his 8th apperance at the track today and his form here reads 4121633 so he acts very well here. Versatile with regards to the ground considering he has won in soft, good and good to firm ground but all his better efforts at this track have been in quick ground which he gets today (form of 121 in GF ground at the track). Oh So Saucy has won on his reappearance before so that ticks off another box since this is his seasonal bow today. He won at Newbury off a mark of 73 on his last run back in September and although he only won by a head, the rise of 2lbs shouldn't be too hard to overcome. Looks like there will be a bit of pace in the race which will play to his strengths as he likes to be held up and I expect him to be running on strongly at the business end of the race. 1pt win Oh So Saucy @ 4/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Hopefully a change of fortune today: 15:05 Ascot Nice looking listed race this and I fancy St Moritz to land a quick hat-trick today for his new trainer who he has yet to lose under since switching yards with 2 wins from 2 runs. Won on his reappearance at Ripon over 10 furlongs before running in his first listed race in the UK at Doncaster over today's trip of a mile where he ran out a half length winner despite meeting trouble in running. He was denied room around 2 furlongs out yet ran on well when finding some room before holding on well towards the finish. With only 11 races to date I believe there is more to come from the horse who has already shown ultra consistency with 5 wins and 3 places from those 11 runs. Two of his unplaced efforts came in softer ground so I believe they can be ignored and with his ideal quick conditions today then he should run another solid race. His only run over course and distance came last year in handicap company where he finished 3/29 which was a very game effort and I fancy him to run another good race over this course and distance today. 1pt E/W St Moritz @ 8/1 (>Paddy Power - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 15:30 Pontefract Cono Zur made his debut for his new yard on his reappearance last time out just 11 days ago where he made all to land a career best effort when winning a class 5 handicap at Haydock over a mile off a mark of 67. This ex Mark Johnston horse should have more offer having only had 11 races to date and the rise of 5lbs may not be enough to stop this horse winning again, especially since James Sullivan takes off 3lbs of that with his claim. The quick conditions will be in favour of this horse as all his best efforts have been produced on good to firm ground with form of 171221 when running on this ground. 1pt win Cono Zur @ 4/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread St Moritz placed and Cono Zur was collared on the line :sad -0.40 for the day but could have been a nice profitable day if Cono Zur had hung on, was a great ride from James Sullivan and he nearly nicked it.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 14:10 Bath Top weight Gee Major gets my vote in the opener here today. Nicky Vaughan's four year old has only seen the track 8 times to date so he is still lightly raced and therefore wouldn't be stupid to suggest some more improvement may come from this horse, especially over a course and distance he has previously won over twice. This horse has only had the two wins and as mentioned both those wins came over today's course and distance. Gee Major made his debut as a 2 year old in 2009 where he competed in two maiden races over 6 furlongs where he showed little form and even on his reappearance at Wolverhampton over 9 furlongs in 2010 he showed very little. He then entered handicap company off a mark of 46 over today's course and distance where he finished 5/9 - again this wasn't the best of efforts and just 8 days later he appeared at over the course and distance again off a 1lb lower mark. He clearly wasn't fancied that day and to be fair his form didn't warrant that but he ran out a 33/1 winner that day, winning by a short head when getting up to lead on the line. The trainer obviously thought he came out that race well and he followed up again over course and distance off a 6lb higher mark just 6 days later. Despite the 6lb penalty seeming quite harsh he ran out a half length winner when making every post a winning one to lead all the way. He was next out at Carlisle 13 days later off a mark 5lbs higher where he finished 4/9. He only finished 2 and a half lengths off the winner which I thought was a game effort considering this was his 4th run in less than a month and he was 10lbs higher than the mark he entered handicap company off of. He was then dropped down to 7 furlongs for his final appearance of the season, again off a mark of 56. Another poor effort suggested he is not the most straightforward but after a lengthy absence and back over a course and distance he acts over leads me to believe he should run his race today off a mark of 55. It isn't the strongest looking of race with many of these not showing much recent form at all. 1pt win Gee Major @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Another appauling run :sad

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 15:00 Doncaster Not the most competitive of handicaps here but I believe Sairaam is overpriced in this race. Although he is one of the most exposed horses in the race, the fact he is off a winning mark today gives him strong credentials in my opinion, especially over the trip of 7 furlongs that all three of his wins have come over and the fact he enjoys the quicker the ground with two of his three wins coming on ground firmer than good. His two handicap wins have came at Thirsk and Newcastle off marks off 53 and 62 (which he runs off of today). He has had three previous efforts over this course and distance and the form of that three runs reads 543 so he has run quite consistently here. He finished only 1 length off the winner in his latest effort here which came off a mark of 63. 1pt win Sairaam @ 8/1 (>Betfred - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Another 2nd :@

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 14:00 Newmarket Tasty looking handicap to open the card today and a case could be made for many of this field and it really was hard to dwindle down the field bt I am going to take my chance with the winner of this race last year Tartan Gigha. Mark Johnston's 6 year old is not the most consistent of horses but from 43 runs he has won 6 times, finished 2nd 9 times and finished 3rd twice. Two of those wins came in this grade last year where he won this race off a 1lb lower mark than he runs off today and he also won the Investec mile at Epsom off a mark of 100 (4lbs higher than he runs off today) over the trip he tackles today which he also won in 2009 off a mark of 88. His form going into today's race is not as strong as his form leading up to the race last year when he won it but he did run over a mile and 1m2f to prepare for this as well as a run over the trip at Wolverhampton which he has also done this season so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him bounce back today. Joe Fanning has won on board three times previously so he knows the horse well and more importantly how to win on him. His only other run over course and distance came in October 2009 when he only went down by a nose in second place off a mark of 90 in the Cambridgeshire so his form at the track is good even though he has only had the two runs here. Similar efforts of any of them two runs today should see him go close once again and at a decent price I will be backing him each way. 2pts E/W Tartan Gigha @ 16/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Really need a winner and to update figures but with exam season just starting for me I won't have as much time, decided to take the last 3-4 days away from the racing due to the poor form I have been in so hopefully with a bit of a fresh mind my luck can change today. 15:50 Goodwood Metropolitain Miss catches my eye on her handicap debut today. She gets in off a mark of 77 despite a 16lb future rise of her handicap mark on the way up to a mark of 93 due to her form in a conditions race last time out at Ascot where she finished in 2nd place, three quarters of a length in behind Emma's Gift. She made her debut on the 5th of April at Kempton in an 8 runner race over a mile where she ran out a very impressive winner. She won by 3 and a half lengths and although that race wasn't a strong one at all, she clearly improved on that run when finishing 2nd in a conditions race at Ascot on only her second start. Similar conditions today with regards to the trip and ground conditions and if she can put in a repeat performance of that run today then I think she should take this race especially considering she finished 2 and a quarter lengths ahead of a horse rated 96 on equal weights then she look very well in today off a mark of 77. 2pt win Metropolitain Miss @ 4/1 (Skybet)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread The poor form continues :sad

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 13:45 Chester I think it could be worth chancing Kevin Ryan's Captain Ramius here in the opener at a big price. This five year old gelding is still quite unexposed on turf having only had the 7 runs and only one of those has come on quick ground which was on his turf debut in a listed contest back in May 2009. He's not been the most consistent on turf at all but he has won once on turf and that came at this course over 7 furlongs. Today's slightly extended seven furlongs shouldn't be a problem and I am interested to see how he copes on quicker ground. That win came off a mark of 87 which is the lowest mark he has ran off of in handicap company so I find it interesting that he is back off a winning mark, especially since he finished 3rd on the all weather at Dundalk over a mile off this mark LTO so he must have chances today. His three other wins have all been on the all weather over 7 furlongs, including a listed race as a 2 year old at Dundalk. With the stable making a great start to the season and still being amongst the winners is another positive and they have had 1 winner from 3 at Chester this week. 1pt E/W Captain Ramius @ 14/1 (VC Bet - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 14:00 Beverley Mark Johnston has a 25% strike rate with his 2 year olds in 2011 so far and I fancy Fulbright to make a winning debut here today. The trainer has been in good form all season and he started the week well yesterday with two winners from two runners at Redcar. Fulbright is entered for another maiden race later in the week which could be a concern as it may suggest she is going to need the run, however she also has a Group 1 entry in August and an entry to a listed race in October which suggests Johnston is expecting good things from her. Joe Fanning comes here for 2 rides today, one in the first and one in the last so the fact he is coming here for the first race is another positive indicator for me. 2pt win Fulbright @ 9/4 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Dearie me I can't even get close at the moment, think a break is well needed :sad

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread York is a track I tend to do well at so lets see how things pan out today: 14:00 York Shropshire makes his handicap debut here today off a mark of 97 and although it will be a tough ask off of top weight to win this race, I believe he has a great profile and looks a good horse in the making. Won really well on debut last year as a 2 year old at Haydock over 6 furlongs in good to soft conditions. The second place who was 4 lengths behind has won two handicaps since off marks of 83 and 89 and is now rated 95 so that form has been boosted. He then entered a group two race at this track over 6 furlongs and although he was well fancied that day he ran a disappointing race finishing 10/11 but I feel that massive step up in class maybe came a bit too quick for him. Made his reappearance 25 days ago in the Group 3 Greenham stakes and although he finished a 10 length 3rd place, Frankel demolished the field that day and has done again since in a group 1 race so that form doesn't look that bad. Shropshire should come on for that run and it appeared that he did appreciate the step up to 7 furlongs LTO despite the margin he lost by and it will be interesting to see how he gets on today for his handicap debut. 3pts win Shropshire @ 15/8 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Looks like York won't change my luck after all :lol

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread 16:10 York Fiercly competitive handicap this but my selection lies with Kevin Ryan's 4 year old Our Jonathan who had a fantastic campaign as a 2 year old and alrthough he didn't win a race from 6 as a 3 year old, he was fairly consistent in defeat and his reappearance at Doncaster 40 days ago looked promising when he finished 3rd at Doncaster over today's trip of 6 furlongs. He has only raced three times in handicap company and that was his better effort in such company so far off a mark of 93, raised 1lb for today's race but its certainly a mark he can win off of considering he has won in group company twice previously and listed compnay once. Seems versatile with regards to ground conditions so the quick ground should be fine for him today, he has only won once over 6 furlongs but again the trip shouldn't pose a problem for him. He finished only three quarters of a length behind Horseradish on his reappearance and he reopposes today off 3lb better terms so I think he can definetely reverse the form considering he should also strip fitter for today's race. Spencer has won twice on board previously so he knows what the horse is all about and I'd be expecting him to make the places at the very least today. 2pts E/W Our Jonathan @ 5/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Yesterday's selection placed which made a bit of a difference: 14:35 Newbury Spanish Bounty took advantage of his dwindling handicap mark last time out by winning a 14 runner race at Windsor over 6 furlongs in impressive fashion. Won the race by 5 lengths and although he faces a 12lb rise for the win, he is still handicapped to win again having won off a 3lbs higher mark previously. The second placed Mymumsaysimthebest has franked the form since by winning next time out off the same mark at Goodwood. Spanish Bounty has ran in this race the last two years and that has been his only two visits to the course. He finished 6/11 in 2009 off a mark of 92 and 6/13 last year off a mark of 90 but it was an improved effort than the previous year since he wasn't beaten as far. Off a mark of 87 today so he is definetely capable of producing a big run here today. Usually in need of them run so the fact he won on his seasonal reappearance is a positive sign as he is likely to strip fitter for today's race. His best form has been on quicker ground so he will appreciate today's good to firm conditions. 1pt E/W Spanish Bounty @ 11/1 (Bet365 - BOG)

[StuSimmy]

Re: Simmy's 2011 Flat Thread Back to the usual then :lol