Ashtee Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Uhhumm! Event Geelong v St Kilda Selection Geelong Strength 7/10 Date 25/03/2011 Bookmaker/Price Centrebet @ 2.27 Reasoning Chapman & Ling (and couple of others + Ablett) appear unlikly for Geelong, as is the important Schnieder for St Kilda plus a couple of others that will also mean McAvoy is exposed as the sole ruckman. The point with Geelong is that they have depth of quality to cover those outs. I'd expect a revigorated first up showing under the new coach and after the events of the off season. With St kilda, perhaps they come out firing but I must also consider the off season distractions and that they may be underdone due to a very late start to pre season training - they have dropped off in second half's in practice games, so it may be too soon to worry should they lead out early. Centrebet are alone on price, with Pinnacle already laying St Kilda. My price; Geelong 1.90 Event Collingwood v Port Adelaide Selection Port Adelaide +42.5 Strength 7/10 Date 26/03/2011 Bookmaker/Price Centrebet @ 2.09 Reasoning A full strength Port will be a whole lot more of a handfull than the injury depleted unit we witnessed for much of last year, even if they do go with a kid or two. As good as they are, this is a definite let-down possibility off recent achievements, where the whole world is expecting Port to be a push over. I can see this game still alive by 3QT. My price; Port 6.00 & +25 And of course, I've had something on them at 11.00 SU. I also fancy a nibble at the price on Richmond, as an early leaning. Carlton have a good list but but there's quite a few quality players that have battled injury in the pre season, some won't come up either. So, all the likely action for me is early in the round. It's unusual I like the price on the reigning premiers for the flag but I do like Collingwood at the 3.00. Don't get me wrong, they got away with the softest premiership I can ever recall and would have lost to any other Grand final combatant in last 30-years. It shouldn't have been their year but for some disastrous tactics & prep by the Saints. This year they do look more advanced, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibbo14 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Carlton, 1.35 (TAB) 10/10 Richmond are shocking, Carlton to be one of the surprise packets of the season, cant see Richmond getting within 30 points. St Kilda, 1.72 (TAB) 8/10 Geelong getting old, Saints looking to put an off season of controversy behind them, Saints play well at the dome. just cant see them being beaten, especially without Ablett, Chapman, Ling Good Luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry Jr Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Ah, good to be back :ok I've seen Richmond play 3 times during the preseason. Rubbish is putting it politely Ash. I wouldn't touch them with a pole. Reckon the Swans are value this week with Scully out. Swans having their best preseason for years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibbo14 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Ah, good to be back :ok I've seen Richmond play 3 times during the preseason. Rubbish is putting it politely Ash. I wouldn't touch them with a pole. Reckon the Swans are value this week with Scully out. Swans having their best preseason for years. Would have been my third bet for the weekend, Swans!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 The odds on the Swans do look pretty good but Melbourne are decent at the MCG, and Sydney are terrible there. I'd probably take them at the line rather than h2h Agree about Carlton, I'd say even at 1.35 they are still overs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CFCWatson Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Carlton v Richmond Carlton First team to 25 points @ 1.59 Carlton First team to 50 points @ 1.49 Carlton -15.5 points @ 1.78 All bets with Sportsbet. I think Carlton have too much quality for this opening round fixture, hence them being heavily backed around the country. Sportsbet said that over 90% of bets they've received have been on the blues? insane! but i won't argue. I really do fancy Carlton in this one. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 24, 2011 Author Share Posted March 24, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 :welcomeCFCWatson. Good luck with those. The influential money has actually been for Richmond (in from 3.65 to 3.45) with Carlton out to 1.38. Neither interest myself, just if Richmond selected stronger and the price drifted I was thinking of trying the winless pre season team. I've taken this under 180.5 Centrebet on the gamble the weather stays. In Ballarat (not to mention what is happening in Melb right now) the drizzle certainly seems settled in for the day as it moves on to Melbourne. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 yeah under 180.5 was a good bet, the line is into 172.5 now. I wasn't quick enough, although it looks to have cleared up a bit, the ground will stay wet until the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b10111 Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 What do you guys think of western Bulldogs and Freemantle? These teams were great last season and I always like to bet on an away team if its in a different class to the home team. I always believe when a team plays away from home there is no room for complacency hence they always bring their A game and if the home team is no good then they can win. I no the odds of 1.55 may not look great but I think you have better chances of a win there. The other thing about aussie rules is Home advantage isn’t that great a deal in my opinion, especially at the beginning of the season when teams aren’t that desperate for points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Agree about Carlton, I'd say even at 1.35 they are still overs. uh ok then Still don't think the bet was bad, just unlucky with Carlton's accuracy and skills, Waite's injury put the nail in the coffin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Talk about see-saw.. :notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiprat Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 8/10 St Kilda WIN 1.74 (sportsbet) 7/10 St Kilda -5.5 2.00 (sportsbet) Saints are looking up and about early in the year. They look to have put all the off season events behind them and will definitely be looking to get back to football. Can't see them losing to this new-look Geelong side who are entering a new era. Without Ling and at best a very underdone Chapman, the Saints with the likes of Goddard, Hayes, Joey and Roo should have too much class. Saints have a solid backline that should be able to take care of Hawkins, Mooney and Varcoe who will be the primary avenues to goal. Saints have too much versatility and should cover the line too. 7/10 Fremantle WIN 1.78 6/10 Fremantle -4.5 2.00 Fremantle look set for a massive year and on the other hand Brisbane should struggle all year. Fremantle should win matchups all over the ground, and cant see them losing unless Big Brown kicks a massive bag, and even so can't expect him to get the delivery he needs from the midfield to do so. Look for Palmer to be firing to go after a year out and Johnson to redeem himself after the issues last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CFCWatson Posted March 25, 2011 Share Posted March 25, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Carlton v Richmond Carlton First team to 25 points @ 1.59 Carlton First team to 50 points @ 1.49 Carlton -15.5 points @ 1.78 All bets with Sportsbet. I think Carlton have too much quality for this opening round fixture, hence them being heavily backed around the country. Sportsbet said that over 90% of bets they've received have been on the blues? insane! but i won't argue. I really do fancy Carlton in this one. :ok Pretty happy with my start to the season :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted March 26, 2011 Share Posted March 26, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Morning gents... ...was in the process of posting a DT bet last night (Rioli to beat VB and JohnnyCock) when the network I was stealing from next door dropped out! :lol ** Worse still (for me of course) apparently SportingBet don't do any of their fantasy bets over the phone. :wall Super call on the Saints dropping away late Ash...a little bit of inside knowledge about Ablett not lining up helped of course. ;) Essendon v. Bulldogs under 197.5 (190 @ Centrebet) Doggies games were overvalued scoring wise last year, and seem to be continuing in that manner. They were the best team defensively in the comp for scoring/I50's last year...no Lake, but Bomber forward structure hardly has teams shaking in their boots. Hird has been talking up improving their defensive aspects...and the last 3 meetings over the last 2 years have all been under this number comfortably...with some stupidly good kicking in all 3! Should have jumped on Sydney earlier in the week, but a bit short now given their record at the 'G... ...can't really see why the Kangas are out to 2.40 tho! :eek (Any news on whether Carey is good to go Ash?) Good Luck today guys. :cheers ** Just moved house, which is why I haven't been around for about a month! :\ EDIT: Just found Ryder v. Hille (DT) for 1.80 @ SportsAlive. Ryder faded a bit late last year, but still av'd a healthy 85...Hille 83, but with 1 monster 156 which pads it a bit. Plus he's had a very limited pre-season and played no games so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Super call on the Saints dropping away late Ash...a little bit of inside knowledge about Ablett not lining up helped of course. ;) Essendon v. Bulldogs under 197.5 (190 @ Centrebet) ...can't really see why the Kangas are out to 2.40 tho! :eek (Any news on whether Carey is good to go Ash?) Yeah, I was right onto the tip Ablett was out (is off in pursuit of "an exiting new challenge", apparently :unsure) and couldn't see Duthie being picked for the saints. Sat wide eyed knowing the 9.25 St K/Geel HT/FT was obvious overs but new it was only happening providing I don't touch it - WEAK! :wall. Blundered on Port, sorry :$ - didn't realize so many were out. I did bail out though, although should have piled up Collingwood given it was obvious Port's line-up was bound to fold. Yes that Essendon total over looks something out of 2010, must have closer look myself. I'm liking the 1.68 WCE. They average 76-games/player to North just 64 who have about eight of their best out. Hot day which Melb teams won't be so accustomed to this year. Might just wait on late changes though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Essendon v. Bulldogs under 197.5 (190 @ Centrebet):ok Managed to get on @ 1.95 Michael Eskander :ok. Even last year I notice Essendon games averaged 197 but interestingly just nine were >197 that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris25 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Anyone thinking the over in the West Coast Eagles - North Melbourne game? 186.5 looks good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris25 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 Or maybe Eagles 1 - 24.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TazaD Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Re: AFL Round 1 2011 :ok Managed to get on @ 1.95 Michael Eskander :ok. Even last year I notice Essendon games averaged 197 but interestingly just nine were >197 that. :ok Got an inkling there will be a few low scoring Dogs games early... ...tipped Ess to win yesterday (although margin was a small concern :unsure )...but Ess clearly up, fit and firing, ** Dogs still a good month away from prime condition I suspect. But yeah, the forward line is a bit of a concern atm. The [let's call it an] experiment of not going to Hall so often (yeah, that's why we went out of our way to get an aging FF :eyes ** ), pretty sure neither Grant nor Jones are genuine options at this stage... ...bit of a shame that a) We've got Bris and GC next two games...and b) It doesn't look like there's been any over-reaction at all to yesterday!! (I expected the world would all jump off...but -6 goals or so actually does look about right. :\ ...oh, yeah...the Brown factor of course. :$ ) SO...best amend that opening statement to...I've got an inkling there would have been some low scoring Dogs games if we played any real opp this month! :D On a more serious note...Congats on taking Port early Ash. It takes real talent to pick the one 'dog who didn't cover the line. :clap ;) ** Love what Hall has done. Kicked about 20 more goals than I expected last year. Give him the ball!!! :tongue2 ** Underdogs again this week against a potential average Swans...NOT at SCG (Stadium Oz), big ground...may jump on Hirdy's wagon this week. :notworthy EDIT: Hope you took that 1-24 Chris. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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