To CBet or not to Cbet....

[GaF]

...that, my friends, is the question I have been crunching some numbers on my HEM NL50 Heads Up database to try and get a feel for what board textures I should and shouldnt cbet - I'm not very good at using board texture to determine my cbets - On a dry board I want to cbet, well, because its a dry board. On a wet board I want to cbet because it's scary for my opponent if he doesn't have a piece of it. Conventional wisdom is, I think, that one should be more likely to cbet a dry board. Not a huge sample size, but hopefully enough to start getting a feel, these are the results I found:

	Opponent Folds to CBet
All	47%
Rainbow	44%
2 of 1 Suit	47%
3 of 1 Suit	67%
Ace on Flop	51%
No Ace on Flop	47%
Open Ended Str8 Draw	40%
3xDifferent Broadway	50%
No Open Ended Str8 Draw	41%

So the first case is in relation to flush draws. This definitely looks counter to conventional wisdom. On a rainbow flop, a cbet only gets an immediate fold from my opponent 44% of the time. When there is 2 of a suit, I can get my opponent to fold to a cbet slightly more often, 47% of the time. However, when 3 cards of 1 suit come down the same, then a cbet gets my opponent to fold a whopping 67% of the time. So in terms of flush draws, the scarier the board, the more likely my cbet is to succeed. Next I looked at flops with an Ace on the board - not a big difference, but a cbet with an Ace on the board is more likely to succeed than when no Ace is present. On the open ended str8 draw side, I didn't totally get my head around the differences/number of draws, but what was clear was that flops where there were 3 different broadway cards (0 Open Ended Straight Draws possible above the nut flush draw on the board) my fold equity was higher than where cards were lower. This was totally counter-intuitive for me as I expected high cards to have been more likely to hit the range that my opponent would call with pre flop. In summary, I'm no closer to understanding which board textures are better for cbetting, but the evidence from my database suggests a wet board holds more fold equity than a dry board (however this may be somewhat counteracted by having greater showdown equity when called after I cbet a dry board than a wet board)

[Nade]

Re: To CBet or not to Cbet.... Cbetting is something i'm not too hot on, but board texture is crucial. I don't have any absolutes on what boards to cbet and which to not cbet but when bluffing i always consider 2 things first: What am i representing? second: Can villains range stand 1 or 2 barrels. The other things i consider are: Will they believe me? Taking into account recent history and my image. With a hand i think what i want to achieve from the hand, is it going to SD, getting a bit of value or turning my hand into a bluff and that all depends on board texture compared with our hand. Also a delayed cbet can be just as strong as a normal one especially if you have a tight image then checking back an Axx flop will look suspcious as they expect you to bluff there 100% so you can check back and bluff the turn instead.

[glceud]

Re: To CBet or not to Cbet.... C-betting at micros is nearly 90% villain dependent........dont know were on when the %'s change toward texture, but I would imagine that the multi tabling masses are more predictable regarding likeliness of calling c-bets than opponents who are putting more thought in.