uknowsit Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 If I calculate team a has a 50% chance of scoring, and team b has a 50% chance of scoring, what is the percentage of both teams scoring? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Quick maths question 25%, more or less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Quick maths question 25% Probability of event 1 AND event 2 = probability of event 1 multiplied by probability of event 2, therefore 0.50 * 0.50 = 0.25. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Quick maths question Well, just show me another place where you can get two answers in three minutes! ;) KT, I haven't seen your post when I started typing, you beat me to it. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uknowsit Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Quick maths question Thanks guys :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Quick maths question Erm, it's only 25% if the two events are independent. Usually when one team scores, the other team will react to it. Thus it's a bit too simplistic to put as 0.5 x 0.5. You need to account for the dependence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Quick maths question But goals are usually considered to be independent events, and I think all statistical calculations of match outcome/number of goals assume goals are independent. You have no tool to evaluate if goal scored by team A will increase or decrease probability of team B to score, at least not before the match, you should have to watch the match and then decide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Re: Quick maths question Erm, it's only 25% if the two events are independent. Usually when one team scores, the other team will react to it. Thus it's a bit too simplistic to put as 0.5 x 0.5. You need to account for the dependence. That is why I wrote 25%' date=' [b']more or less. But actually, the effect is not that big. Small sample of 63,114 games. 15,021 times the home side did not score, that's 23.8%. 22,077 times the away team did not score, that's 35.0%. 5,372 games were 0-0, that's 8.5%. In theory: 23.8% x 35.0% = 8.3% As I said, the effect is not that big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luckyjack Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Re: Quick maths question Hi You recently gave a reply to a question raised about the % of soccer game goals coming in the 88th, 89th and 90th minutes. This I found very useful. Do you have similar statistics relating to the 80th and 85th minutes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.