Flat Racing - Monday the 7th of February

[Monterosso]

2:25 Wolverhampton - Cape Royal - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365) Normally I wouldn't be too keen to back a horse who is 0-26 on the all weather but this trailblazing 11 year old could have a squeak at a nice price, now that he's back around Wolverhampton on favourable terms. Cape Royal showed all his old dash when attempting to make all over the flying 5 furlongs at Southwell a few days ago, where he was eventually worn down by 2 rivals but plugged on for a game third place. If he could replicate that run around here, then I feel he has a huge chance in what looks a particularly weak class 6 contest, even for the grade, where many come here in bad form or either handicapped out of the equation. His last C&D run was 3 starts ago, but it was when the track was riding slow and that's definitely not in his favour, with a 6th place finish all he could muster after fading under pressure. However, if we go back to his run over C&D 2 starts before that, he finished a gallant 2nd to Sir Geoffrey, a winner since and consistent performer off a mark of 86, 13lbs higher than when my selection faced him. Those two finished a few lengths clear of the rest and the form does look quite decent, especially when compared to that of the rest of this field. If things could just pan out in Cape Royal's favour today, then he may have an ideal opportunity of making it 1-27 on the AW, off a mark of 60, which looks quite attractive given that he has run well on this surface off much higher. Of the rest in contention, I thought Decider showed a fair amount of speed early on last time out when racing at Lingfield over 6f. He was eventually caught inside the final furlong but plugged on well and looks ideally suited by this step back in trip. However, despite being in good form of late, he could be vulnerable off a mark that would need a career best to see him gain victory, so I'll avoid, plus I can never catch his yard right. Your Gifted, despite the bad grammar, is in fine fettle of late, winning twice from his last 7 outings, with 5 seconds and a third. He is a frustrating type though and may be found out on the back of another 4lb rise, especially at a course where he has never particularly ran well. He does warrant a lot of respect, but at 4/1, I'd much rather take him on with something else. Straboe has claims too but his yard are impossible to get right and he will more than likely win if gambled on, but I'm not taking that chance at around the 11/2 mark, although he's potentially well in with my selection on previous form. A couple more come into the equation, like Alan McCabe's runner and Derek Shaw's two, but at the prices I'd much rather side with Cape Royal, who seems to have a good opportunity to strike, as everything should be in his favour, the yard are going well, the course suits his running style and he's potentially well handicapped. It's a risky bet given his overall profile on this surface but the last time he got things to his liking, he ran into one that was an improver under new connections and has since went on to make the form look quite decent. A relative shock could be on the cards and at 8/1, he's worth a small/medium bet in the hope that he'll land the spoils. I marked him up as a 5/1 shot and I'm hopeful that today could be the day.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing - Monday the 7th of February 2.25 Wolverhampton - Desert Strike 11/1 VC Comes here for the Alan McCabe stable who are in good nick of late. Won a class 5 handicap over 5f at the start of December off a 2lb lower mark that today. He won quite comfortably that day i thought and in much stronger company than today. Since then he's only ran over 5f once which was at Southwell, his form at the other a.w tracks is stronger. He's been running over 6f in stronger races than today off higher marks with little success, he takes the drop in trip and class today and the likely strong pace should suit perfectly. I took 12/1 at Bet365 earlier and they're now at 10/1. The prices of Straboe and Raimond Ridge look like reactions to a bit of money that came for both last time out. 4.05 Wolverhampton - Tewin Wood 7/1 William Hill Although there appears to be a lot of pace on in this race i've got a theory that this might not be the case. Striker Torres, Double Carpet and Tewin Wood are capable front runners, but it's not vital for them. I think if one of them takes it up the others will happily just sit in behind, with the front runner not going a blistering pace. This is leading me to think it could pay to be fairly handy here where Tewin Wood should be from a good draw. Liam Jones comes here for his only ride on the card and his record for Alan Bailey in 2 wins and 1 place from 6 rides. He won off todays mark last May by over a length and has had excuses for recent poor efforts. Chased a frightning early pace 2 starts ago and the extended mile in a strong race was probably too much for him. Takes a drop in handicap company with his recent efforts being class 4 races, won a weak claimer easily last time out. Competitive race so small stakes on this one.