Exit Strategy for high scoring draw needed

[Kingspur]

Hi - I'm pretty new to the betting scene but I've been reading a lot about different systems and it seems the key to a good one, is a good exit strategy. The one I am thinking about at the moment on Betfair is as follows: Select a football match where you can lay the draw at under 4.00 Back a 0-0 and a 1-1 draw then lay the draw. An example was this afternoon in Ligue 1 in France Auxerre vs Lille 0-0 was at 9.8, and 1-1 was at 7.0. Lay the draw was 3.45 My total stake is £10, so I split my stake so that I would win the same no matter which result. so 0-0 @ 9.8 Stake is £4.17 1-1 @ 7.00 Stake is £5.83 This would leave me with potential winnings of £29.00 (taking into account 5% commission) Then I lay the draw (@ 3.45) so that my total liability comes to £29. This means that if the result is 0-0 or 1-1 I should breakeven, and if either side wins I get back £11.84. Taking commission and my original £10 stake into account this leaves me with a £1.24 profit. I hope I got all my calculations and assumptions correct first of all. So obviously, the big gaping hole in this system is the high scoring draw. Looking on previous results this season, I see that of the potential matches I could have used the system for, 5% come in as 2-2 or 3-3. But the English PL and German Bundesliga are worse coming in at 8%, whilst if I remove these and concentrate on just Scotland, Italy, Spain and France, the problem is reduced to 3.5%. So I guess my question is, do you think there is a reliable exit strategy that I could use in-play if it looks like a high scoring draw could be about to happen.

[froment]

Re: Exit Strategy for high scoring draw needed As far as I know, there is no strategy that would cover you during entire match; any strategy leaves you exposed to loss for shorter or longer period of time during the match, if things don't go as you expected. Basicaly, what you did here is laying 2-2 and 3-3, with some changes, as in that case you would won also if match ends in 0-0 and 1-1; I assume that odds for 2-2 were something around 20 to 25, and 3-3 80 to 100, you staked (better said, exposed to risk of 2-2 or 3-3 results) total of 21.84 units; if you distributed it over 2-2 and 3-3 at odds I mentioned, you would get around the same profit of 1.24 units. As soon as match is under way and there is no goal, odds for 0-0 start dropping, while 1-1 stays on the similar level or slighly rises until beginning of second half; unlike them, odds for 2-2, and especially 3-3, start rising immediatelly after kick-off; so, when they are high enough, you can back them, too, but problem is that your profit is already small; if you want to take half of those 1.25 units, you should wait for 2-2 to hit something about 50, and 3-3 to hit 200, which won't happen before half-time. And that's why I mentioned laying 2-2 and 3-3 - if those results are your only pitfalls, then I'd rather lay them at kick-off, and then wait some time before backing them, as it at least saves you some commission, being on the same market.

[Kumquat Tree]

Re: Exit Strategy for high scoring draw needed There ain't no such thing as a free lunch. So, no there ain't no such exit strategy.

[froment]

Re: Exit Strategy for high scoring draw needed And :welcome to forum, I've just noticed you're new! :)

[Drallep]

Re: Exit Strategy for high scoring draw needed Probably completely wrong exit strategy, but have mercy because I am as new to this as you. Perhaps you could look at backing over 3.5 goals and over 5.5 goals. The odds at over 3.5 will not be that great so you may need another exit strategy for 2-2's. Odds at over 5.5 goals will involve a small enough point stake to enable you to break even if there are over 5.5 goals (3-3). Perhaps look at the percentages of draw's which are 0-0 and back 2-2 instead of 0-0 if the percentages of 2-2's are higher? Only an idea.

[Kingspur]

Re: Exit Strategy for high scoring draw needed Thanks Froment. So bear with me - I'm slightly confused. When you say 'if you distributed it over 2-2 and 3-3 at odds I mentioned, you would get around the same profit of 1.24 units' I'm not sure how to distribute my stakes to achieve this. I know how to distribute my backing stakes, but not sure how to include my lay bet into the distribution to ensure I am still only staking the same number of units. If we take an example coming up of the midweek game Birmingham vs Stoke Current Betfair odds are 0-0 9.4 1-1 7.0 2-2 17.0 3-3 90.0 Lay the Draw is 3.35 If I distribute my 10 units over the correct scores it gives me winnings of 19.78. So by my calculations that means my lay can only be for 8.42 which would mean losing money. If I go with the 0-0 and 1-1 only, my lay can be for 12.06 units which leaves me profit but risking 2-2 & 3-3. So then if I lay 2-2 and 3-3 at kick off (currently 2-2 @ 21, 3-3 @ 120) and back them once the game is in the second half? A couple of questions.. How much should I stake on the lay? Surely if the game is heading towards a 2-2 or a 3-3 (in other words the reason I am placing this insurance bet) then the odds for backing a 2-2 or 3-3 are not going to rise anyway? thanks for you comments

[Kumquat Tree]

Re: Exit Strategy for high scoring draw needed Tis better to reply late than to never have replied at all. Regarding your exit strategy regarding high scoring draws: There is none. Games ending 2-2 or 3-3 happen to have goals during the match in a completely random order. There are 20 possible scoring scenarios how a 3-3 can occur. I.e. 1-0 -> 1-1 -> 1-2 -> 2-2 -> 3-2 -> 3-3. And although people often end up spamming the football forums with threads like "3-0 upfront ended in a draw, has this ever happened before?", every of those 20 scenarios has the same probability to occur, that is 5% each.

[Kumquat Tree]

Re: Exit Strategy for high scoring draw needed ...

[froment]

Re: Exit Strategy for high scoring draw needed

Tis better to reply late than to never have replied at all.

Well said, Kumquat Tree; I haven't seen this post #6 untill now. Given that Kingspur directed his question to me, let me reply what I know. In post #2, I explained that lay the draw, back 0-0 and back 1-1 is equal as lay 2-2 and lay 3-3. Markets are usually so balanced that you would get the same profit from any of two scenarios above, and I proposed to use the later, as it's on the same market, so you may save something on commission, and it's easier to place two bets than three. And sure enough you're losing money if you try to cover all outcomes! Laying the draw and covering all 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3 for profit would be too good to be true! :D As for second part of your question, about stakes, general formula is back odds * back stake = lay odds * lay stake profit = lay stake - back stake So, in your example, if you layed 2-2 at 17.0 with stake of 10 units (liability 160 units), and you want to back at 21.0, required stake for back bet is 17*10/21 = 8.10 units, and profit is 1.90 units, without commission. Though, you won't bother each time with this calculation; there are many calculators online, and my favourite one is at Chromaweb; you can also enable "What If" figure in Betfair's site (More options - Display "what if" figure), that will show your potential profit/loss before placing bet. And naturally, odds for 2-2 and 3-3 will rise only if match looks to be low-scoring; as soon as one goal in first half comes in, 2-2 odds stop rising or at least rise slower, and with another goal before 55 minute they go down, depending when and who scored goals: if they were around 20, like in your example, after 1-1, they go to around 8 to 10, and after 0-2 or 2-0, they go to around 15; odds for 3-3 take 2 or 3 goals to significantly react, but, due to very high lay odds at kick off, drop is more severe - after result 2-1 or 1-2, they drop from 80 to around 25. Trading out in those moments will bring you loss. How long you willl wait before trading out is up to you, your evaluation of the match and your willingness to risk your bank.