Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb

[bowles10]

plenty of jumps action for a sunday Muss 3.35 John Smith's Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap Hurdle) (Class 2) (4yo+,0-140 Key stats Fav 1/12 Average age 6.5 Over 10st 8lb 10/12 5 - 8yo 12/12 SP 8/1 or under 10/12 Ran LTO Dec, Jan, Feb 10/12 (last year winner was 1st time up) Ran LTO JAn 7/12 Won up to 19f 11/12 Course win 3/12 1st time at course 8/12 LTO 4th or better 8/12 3 - 6 career runs 8/12 More than 1 win over timber 9/12 We are looking at a horse ran LTO no earlier than Dec, possibly Jan more favoured, with no win further than 19f, & aged between 5-8. this removes Leslingtaylor, orsippus, Premkier Grand cru, Caravel, Los Nadis, Toshi, Bureaucrat, Biedh tine anseo, That leaves 7 to pick from now. The SP stat and the weight of 10st 8lb leaves us with : Hunterview (fav stat puts me off a bit 1 from 12) currently 7/2 Kudu Country (meets all the key trends) 9/2 >Bet365 Drill sargent (meets all the key trends) 6/1 >Bet365 hope i dont regret leaving the pipe horse out but 10pts win on the other 2.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Jump Racing - 6th Feb Kit Carson hit the 3rd & 2nd last fence last time out over today's C&D, he put up a good show that day and was not far behind a Howard Johnson 2/5 jolly. Sure he's getting on now at the grand old age of 11, BUT he's not out a race like this today if he can put abit more into his jumping. He's had a nice rest and could give the field a wee shock if he turns up race fit. Don't let his price put you off. 4:10 Musselburgh - Kit Carson 20/1

[Monterosso]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb 1:05 Leopardstown - Louisville Lip - 2pts @ 7/1 (WillHill) This bet will be subject to whether the meeting goes ahead or not but assuming it does, then this talented 4 year old has a good chance of gaining a Grade 1 scalp on only his second start over hurdles. He made his debut just under two weeks ago, when sent off as a 20/1 shot in what looked to be a competitive field. The way Louisville Lip traveled, jumped and asserted in the closing stages was highly impressive. He ran out a 2.5 length winner to Maxim Gorky, a previously decent animal on the flat for Sir Michael Stoute and whom he re-opposes today. Patrick Flynn's charge was value for more than the winning distance and won going away, despite stumbling shortly after taking the final flight in impressive fashion. He's sure to go on to a lot bigger and better things, whether a Grade 1 contest is within his grasp at such an early stage is debatable, but he does look high class and at 7/1, I'm more than happy to take a chance. The vibes out of his yard are good, as they seem to really rate this fellow and expect he should come on tenfold for that recent run. Louisville Lip has previous race experience, having been a 9 race maiden on the flat at trips up to 12 furlongs. He was average to say the least, but always looked to be a better prospect once going over jumps, as he has both the size, speed and stamina to be much better in this code. Assuming he can kick on from that last win, I think he has massive claims here in a race containing similar lightly raced types. However, he's open to a lot more improvement and if he was from one of the leading yards, he'd be half this price at least. Dermot Weld trains the current favourite, another 1 race 1 win competitor going by the name of Unaccompanied. She gets a fillies allowance here, which is 5lbs, so that's a plus but she won a modest maiden hurdle first time up, jumping averagely over a few flights and is priced purely on her trainers potential, although she has lots of it herself. At 11/4, I'd rather take her on with something else. Paul Nicholls trains the other big danger, a more experienced runner in comparison to my selection, as Indian Daudaie has already run 4 times over hurdles, winning once in France in a decent race and also placed in a French Group 1 on very testing ground. He made his debut for this yard in a Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham, when finishing a good 3rd of 7 behind Local Hero, who looks to be a more than classy type. However, 3/1 is much too skinny for me and despite the powerful connections, I'd rather oppose once again. There's a few more dangers, but assuming the race goes ahead, I'll happily side with the potential of Louisville Lip, who could be anything and already looks pretty exciting. Conditions are favourable and the race should pan out to suit, the only wonder is whether he's good enough, but 7/1 is enough for me to take a chance. Small/medium bet on a selection who I think should be no bigger than 5/1, with the potential to be even shorter based on how visually impressive he was first time up. The meeting may not even go ahead, but if it does, then this should be an extremely exciting race. 2:00 Musselburgh - Viva Colonia - 2pts @ 7/1 (PaddyPower) On paper, this looks a wide open contest but I've readily discounted a lot of the field and I think that it may pay to side with David O'Meara's lightly raced hurdler, Viva Colonia. He was previously with the Charlie Mann yard, but cut little mustard over hurdles, bar winning on his debut in an awful maiden race. He then ran 2 more decent races for Mann, before blowing up at Kempton and collapsing after the race. His next 4 efforts were very laboured, finishing well beaten every time, before moving to O'Meara's yard around September time and was ready to line up again at the end of October, over 2m 4f at Wetherby. He was sent off as a 10/1 shot in a 15 runner handicap, traveled and jumped well throughout and won in decisive fashion, beating some decent animals in the process. That was a career best effort and connections turned him out 2 weeks later, over 3 furlongs shorter this time, but at the same track. The ground was a bit worse this time and he wasn't able to pick up as easily as before, settling for a 0.75 length 2nd place, which was probably a step up on his previous form as he was shouldering an 11lb rise in the weights and running at a trip I believe to be shy of his optimum. Viva Colonia has since had nearly 3 months off the race track and should come here nice and fresh, ready to take on an even tougher task. He's up another 7lbs on the back of that second place, but he's back in to his optimum trip and has an even better jockey on board, with Denis O'Regan taking over from Fearghal Davis, whom I also rate but just not as highly. If O'Regan can get this animal traveling with purpose, then once the business end comes along, I think he has a huge chance of taking his recent progression to another level. Viva Colonia will have top weight to contend with, but the ground is only on the soft side of good, which should be of no problem and I can't believe that 120 is the ceiling of his abilities, especially on what he has shown last twice. I really like O'Meara as a trainer and he should be able to exert even more out of this lightly raced hurdler, who has only had 9 runs over obstacles. The form of the yard is decent of late and they've never come to Musselburgh before with NH animals, and only bring down 2 today, this one with the most lively chance. It's a 350 mile round trip for them, so hopefully it's not wasted. There's a fair few dangers but I'm not going to go through them, however, Viva Colonia was by far and away the best choice of this race from all of my attempts to look at it in different ways. He should appreciate everything that's likely to occur and although top weight is tough to overcome, he has a very good chance of doing it. I marked him up as the 7/2 favourite, with means I should be having a bigger bet but I think I'll play it smart and only play small/medium stakes as I'm bound to have missed something. Another bookie has him priced as the 9/2 joint favourite though, which looks more realistic. Either the odds compliers are out of their mind at Powers, or else I'm completely wrong. I'll take my chances though, as he's bound to run a good race and will hopefully find enough to go one better than last time, seems to go OK fresh too. 3:35 Musselburgh - Beidh Tine Anseo - 1pt @ 16/1 (WillHill) Highly progressive over hurdles last spring, notching a hat-trick under the guidance of Campbell Gilles, who's on board yet again. He failed to win in his 2 hurdle starts since but wasn't suited by things last time out and could have a decent chance here at the foot of the weights. This is a tough class 2 handicap and it'll take a career best to gain victory but I think that Beidh Tine Anseo may have a lot more to give, especially with things a lot more likely to suit today at a track that's made for him. He's ideally suited to a sharp 2 mile test and that's what he gets today, plus he also races a lot closer to home, which is a positive as the long journeys of late may have taken a bit out of him, as he certainly didn't perform to his abilities. If everything could come together here, then he may have a nice chance of getting involved at what looks a very tasty 16/1 price tag. He's trained by Lucinda Russel, who isn't in good form of late but due to hit a good run any time soon. Herself and Gilles form a very good partnership, with 13% of their runners getting into the winners enclosure and they also show a nice LSP of £44. Beidh Tine Anseo handles most ground, so the current going won't inconvenience him and with a good gallop likely, he'll have everything in his favour. He stays further pretty readily and sees out this trip very well, which he'll need to do today up against some very decent opposition. He also gets on very well with this jockey, having won under his guidance on 3 occasions and Gilles has a fine 18% strike rate here at Musselburgh. Drill Sergent will be a big danger and I probably would of punted him if it wasn't for his current price of 13/2, which has come in from 11/1, as I'd imagine Pricewise have put him up for todays racing, sucking out any value that was to be had, so I'll oppose now. There's many more lively contenders but at the current prices, Lucinda Russell's 5 year old is worth chancing. He has a lot more to give and is still pretty lightly raced. He hasn't raced in a few months but that shouldn't be any concern and it's quite possible that he'll come back a much better animal, although it'll take a fine run to win here. 16/1 is much too big, I marked him up as a 10/1 shot and I'll play a minimum win stake on him, in the off chance that he comes back to his usual self and performs to the level that he should be able to.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb The big meeting at Leopardstown is OFF:sad

[zoolander]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb Mussleborough 3:35 Cunning Clarets 16-1 Bet365(BOG) 1 point WIN Short write up as pressed for time but this one caught my eye. Willing to forgive this horse its last run as an off day when beaten favorite. Odds look very generous and if he can pick up were he left off before that race will be a major contender today in what looks a pretty average race.

[punterpete]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb 1.30 Musselburgh Bridlingtonbygones ew @ 14/1 Bet 365 Won a bumper here on his debut last season. Shaped upped well when coming second on his first start over hurdles at Sedgefield in November. Stepped up in trip today and there should be more to come from this one. 2.00 Musselburgh Grandad Bill ew @ 12/1 Bet 365 Seems to love it around here with his last win coming almost a year ago over c & d. Has an overall record of 2-3-10 at Musselburgh. The handicapper caught up with him last season but he is only 2lbs higher than last seasons win and back at his favourite track I expect a big run from Jim Goldies charge today. 3.35 Musselburgh European Dream ew @ 14/1 Bet 365 Decent performer in the past both on the flat and over hurdles. Last in came in this event back in 2009. Has since moved to Richard Fahey and had a spin on the all weather recently so should be fit. Despite his ecent lack of success European Dream does look well handicapped here being only 2lbs higher than when he won this race and must have a chance of repeating today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb Fontwell 3.25 Rimini 0.5pt EW - 8/1 Very progressive until unseating at Newbury. Pulled up lto back over hurdles, but reported lame after the race and the run should be ignored. Has won off 100 over hurdles and off 108 over fences. Off 109 today with very talented 7lb conditional on board, I think he's well handicapped and could run a big race. With his progressive profile, I think lto was just a blip and is worth a few quid at the price.

[mowgli77]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb Seeyaaj 4.10 Musselburgh - WIN - 17/2 W. Hill - BOG There seems to be doubts over most rivals, either dropping back in trip, up in class or handicap marks seem too high. I'd have this nearer favouritism today. Last time it ran over 2m it won off 107 but then next time out ran over 18f and tried to give 17lb to the winner and was 2nd so that 2nd is very credible. That was off 113, ran again over 18f and was 3rd. Runs off 112 today but I think is more than capable of winning off that mark, has been rated as high as 121. Has a wealth of experience and only fallen once, which is a great stat considering it is 11 year old. Has won and run well Feb/March time and not worried about the break. Odds look generous when you compare it to the rest of the field.

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb 130 Mus: 86 Moon Indigo, 85 Skint, 77 Bridlingtonbygones 230 Mus: 95 Titan De Sarti, 95 Meetings Man, 90 Jolly Roger 120 Fon: 94 Kuilsriver, 87 Omaruru, 85 Freckle Face 220 Fon: 86 Captain Kirkton, 86 Get It On, 80 Fetherbed Lane Preview; Two races at each meeting and something in all of them to watch with interest. Up at Musselburgh we have a Triumph Hurdle trial and Henderson runs Titan De Sarti who so far has been a touch disappointing, well beaten last time by Cedre Bleu which may be good form? I think he wants better ground than he got last time and this track never gets too soft. Danceintothelight has won his last two races but this is a step up and has the penalty. Meetings Man also has the extra weight, he's been very consistant and shouldnt be far away. The opening race is a match between the Henderson horse Skint who's best figures were achieved in a handicap and Moon Indigo disappointed last time but that was on really soft ground and over further, his run behind Lethal Glaze gives him every chance here. At Fontwell Kuilsriver who was second to Kezzene in a good race at Kempton on his debut will be strongly fancied to go one better here, the form hasnt been exactly boosted since so maybe was flattered. Omaruru is consistant and stayed on well last time as though he needed further, this extra 2f may see some improvement and if it does will be bang there. In the 220 Captain Kirkton will be a hot fav after a very impressive debut, that was in very heavy going so we need to see another run before going overboard. Get It On and Fetherbed Lane are two decent rivals, the latter looks a certain improver and could give the fav most to do. Bet; 230 Mus: Meetings Man 1pt EW (12/1 Bet365)

[diamond1924]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb Im at the course now and immediately rueing thommo being here... "back skint and you wont be... ho, ho, ho". "Divers, he's always going down ho, ho, ho". Fair bit of rain today,

[diamond1924]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb Im at the course now and immediately rueing thommo being here... "back skint and you wont be... ho, ho, ho". "Divers, he's always going down ho, ho, ho". Fair bit of rain today,

[cc75]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb 3.35 Musselburgh: Toshi Shrewd yard who have Graham Lee up for the ride (24% strike rate for them this season); Very well handicapped if able to put best foot forward (last win was form 1lb higher). Question marks over ground conditions IMO, however won't want for stamina and could be reeling them over the hard Musselburgh run in. Chances at a nice price. 0.5pts e/w @ 28/1 Bet365 BOG

[mowgli77]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb This 4.10 Musselburgh race is interesting, the 3 I'd fancy are the 3 outsiders and those at the head of the market have questions to answer. I might have got this race all wrong but Folk Tune is 8-1, Seeyaaj is 9-1 and Kit Carson is 16-1. Could be a very nice forecast at those prices.

[diamond1924]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb I got a handshake there off ferdy, nice chap :)

[diamond1924]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb Premier grand cru looks stunning

[diamond1924]

Re: Jump Racing Sun 6th Feb Had a good day today at the track. Didn't have a bet in the first, though kicking myself that I didn't back big Goldie's winner e/w, thought the fav was nailed on. I had my wee boy Jonny with me, I was near the finish line, I had a red hat on, wee Jonny in a green jacket, got him to wave to his mum on the camera 2nd and 3rd race. Backed 20/1 shot Santa's Son fiver on Jonny's recommendation, mines was second. Big fan of James Ewarts, had a tenner each on his 3 runners, Vosges was incredible, won at 7s, Premier Grand Cru looked amazing, but needed the run, the bumper horse looked promising. James looked troubled in the enclosure, he had 2 sticks, on facebook, says he has broken a hip. Met Ferdy, before Divers won, got a handshake, was surprised how small and gaunt he looks, got a wink from Graham Lee, my hero :) Backed Divers, superb ride from Graham to beat the odds on fav. Thankfully the rain stayed away in general, the journey through didn't fill me with much hope but good in the end. Pity about Thommo and his incessant drivel.... :tongue2