Flat Racing - 5th of February

[Monterosso]

3:25 Lingfield - Rugell - 1pt @ 25/1 (Bet365) Not an obvious form pick by any means but could prove to be a bit of value in what looks to be a wide open contest. He gained his sole UK win when making all to gain victory with ease in a 1m 6f contest at Ffos Las when trained by Clive Cox. Since then he has moved to the Derek Shaw yard, running twice since but both at inadequate trips where he tailed off on both occasions (1m & 1m 2f). Rugell is now upped in trip to 1m 4f and looks potentially well treated off a mark of 85, just 2lbs higher than that win here. He's a previous Group 2 winner when trained out in Argentina, so he clearly has ability but how much of that remains is still in doubt. However, he seems to handle polytrack without problem, as shown when coming 4th to Phoenix Flight over 2 miles at Kempton, with the trip possibly catching him out as he folded under pressure having set a relatively slow tempo. That was off a 1lb lower mark and all 3 ahead of him have followed up since, although the race was back in June so that's probably expected and not really relative to now. He looked to be a decent stayer in the making but has failed to live up to expectations and was sold out of Cox's yard pretty cheaply, fetching only €10,500. He's now owned by Derek Shaw himself, so hopefully he'll have him firing on all cylinders here and it's a yard that does have the odd massive priced winner. This is a wide open contest, with Mark Johnston's recently impressive Lovers Causeway priced up as the 5/2 favourite. However, he's running under a penalty, upped in grade and being turned out quickly, all of which would make me oppose. He'll also face competition for the lead should he try to make all and looks potentially vulnerable off a career high mark of 88, although he was very impressive last time out. Another few were interesting, not least Taaresh, who was another impressive winner last time when scoring by an eased down 4.5 lengths over this trip at Kempton. However, he's upped markedly in grade, from class 5 to class 3, runs off a career high mark and faces a much tougher proposition here. At 6/1, I'd readily pass over him, but he seems in good form and would be of interest if he was available at a better price. Scamperdale has never won at this trip, throws in the odd howler and has never won off a mark this high, plus he's also 9 year old so I'll also oppose him. If things fell right for Shaw's runner, then he may have a chance to knick it from the front if getting to the lead, which is a doubt but at 25/1 I'll take my chances. He has won at this grade, gets the trip well, looks well handicapped and looks overprice. He should also improve for having those 2 recent runs on the back of a break. I priced him up as a 14/1 shot and I think that he's worth taking a chance on with minimal stakes. 4:30 Lingfield - Elna Bright - 2pts @ 10/1 (Bet365) Has a bit to find with some of these runners and it'll be tough to win off top weight but this relatively consistent 6 year old should improve tenfold for the step up to 1 mile. I believe it has been what he's been crying out for, as he seems readily outpaced in the final stages of his recent runs over 7 furlongs. He has won over 6f on two occasions, so he obviously has a bit of speed but I think stamina could be his forté and if he gets to run on the back of a good gallop, we could see him gain his 9th career success. Elna Bright is a 2 time course winner, with overall form reading ; 2-1-1-3-0-3-6, which shows consistency in the main and his only bad performance coming when he was hampered and lost his stride 5 starts ago. The 2 wins came over 7 furlongs, when winning off 7 & 3lb lower marks but he has won off a 1lb higher mark at Kempton, which gives cause for optimism that he's not completely in the grips of the handicapper, which seems to be the general consensus. Elna Bright has a 4lb swing with Hazzard County, who is the current 5/1 favourite in this wide open contest. They met last time out, when my selection ran 4.75 lengths behind Simcock's runner over 7f here. I think that the combination of both weight change and the step up in trip is much more in my selections favour, with Simcock's charge being a much better animal over a truly run 7. I'm hoping that's enough to change around that form. Brett Johnston trains Elna Bright and his runners seem to be going well without gaining success, so he'll be hoping to change that with victory here with his only runner at Lingfield. Liam Keniry takes the ride, on what is 1 of only 2 rides today, the other being a virtual no hoper, in my opinion. Keniry and Johnston have a 22% strike rate at the course, with 2 winners from 9 runners. He's a jockey I rate fairly highly and he has won on board this gelding before, on 2 occasions, including at this track. Many others can come in to consideration here, with Zebrano likely to make a bold bid but he's under a rise in the weights, a career high mark and possibly running at a track that's not fully to his liking, as he's a much better animal around Kempton. He also has some form to turn around with other animals and for all those reasons, at 13/2, I'd rather take him on despite him being in good knick of late. Everymanforhimself is finally getting his act together lately but both recent wins have come at Southwell and the further 3lb rise for his last race, combined with a step up to a trip he has never won over, would be enough to make me oppose at the currently 7/1 available. He's in good form but not a good enough price to be worthy of consideration. Cases could also be made for the rest of the field but I marked Elna Bright up as a 7/1 shot, with the potential to be even shorter, so I think that he's worth siding with by having a small/medium bet at the 10/1 currently available. I can't see that lasting too long as it looks vastly overpriced to me, but it's quite plausible that many other runners could be punted and he could even drift to a better price, despite being undeserving of it. He has a very lively chance under these new conditions.

[RussP]

Re: Flat Racing - 5th of February 2.55 Lingfield There's 2 I like in this at different ends of the betting spectrum. First up is Desert Icon. In its pomp just 12 months ago, was rated in the 80's but is now rated just 64 and is racing today for the 2nd time ever in Class 6. Recent form gives this one a top chance, especially with the race run to suit. 3 starts ago over C&D in this grade, was a close up 5th but would have got a whole lot closer with a clear run before being upped in grade for it's last 2 starts, where pulling too hard put paid to its chances at Kempton before racing back here and flying home failing by the shortest of short heads to get up. Just 1lb higher for that run and I'm sure the fast pace will suit here and give this one a super chance. Comments about pace also apply to Nubar Boy, at a massive price. Won here over C&D 4 starts ago off 2lb lower when coming from last to first inside a furlong. Since then, has run better than finishing positions suggest. 1.5L 4th when not getting a clear run, unplaced but over a trip too far (7f) and lto, was 2L back in 5th but disappointed that jockey took the unfavoured inside route. Eased 1lb as a consequence and think that 18's is too big. Desert Icon, 2pts win @ 13/2 SportingBet Nubar Boy, 1pt EW @ 18/1 Stan James 4.30 Lingfield I like the look of front runner Mafeking here. Course specialist, from stall 1 which is perfect, this one has every chance of dictating here. 3 wins & 10 more places from 20 efforts at the track, I actually think it's looking like a better horse over this reduced trip of 1m that it's run at recently. Lto, back over 10f, finished a close up 6th but previous to that was placed behind the progressive Final Drive and winning previous over C&D in this grade off 3lb lower. Gets on well with the jockey, interesting dropped back to this class (last time resulted in a 1L win) and should be able to dictate early from the ideal draw. Not particularly keen on any of the others so I'll take the EW on this at a nice price. Mafeking, 1.5pts EW @ 8/1 Coral BOG