Flat Racing - 27th of January

[Monterosso]

4:15 Southwell - Novestar - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Betfred) This is potentially a very mental betting proposition, as it's a horse who has performed atrociously on his last 3 starts. However, he has obviously had problems, as he was a decent type on the All-Weather back in '08, where he won on 5 occasions, including 3 at the Southwell venue. His last win came at Wolverhampton off a mark of 66, where he made all to win comfortably over a trip of 1m 4f. He then tailed off at Kempton, on what ended up being his last run for over 2 years. Novestar made his return to the racetrack in October of last year, in which he finished a massively tailed off last of 12 at Wolverhampton. He was then dropped 4lbs and ran again at the beginning of this month, over the same trip but this time at his favourite course, Southwell. He finished last once again, beaten by a lot less but still well tailed off and showed very little throughout. 12 days later he ran over an inadequate 1m 1f trip at Wolverhampton, where he didn't run well by any means but performed a lot better than his previous 2 comeback runs. Novestar finished 13 lengths off the pace but managed to beat 4 horses home, which was a step in the right direction I suppose. I'm also of the impression that he'll have needed those few runs to shake off the cobwebs and could well benefit from another drop in the weights, as he now runs off a mark of 55, a full 11lbs below his last winning mark and 3lbs below his last course win. This is an extremely weak contest, with the majority of the field covered by horses who find winning very hard. Added to that, it's an apprentice race for jockeys who haven't yet ridden more than 10 career winners. Richard Rowe, who rides Novestar, is no great shakes, as his 6 wins in 246 rides would suggest. However, he seems to win most of his races over longer distances and that's something I'd always take into account over this 1m 6f trip. He's also riding alright of late, with a 20/1 3rd and a 4/1 winner from his last 3 rides. This horse has won with jockeys on board that I'd consider poor, so he's probably not the trickiest of rides, especially as he just likes to plod along in front. He'll definitely face competition for the lead, with Kingaroo and Tivers Song likely to join in the fight for those honours but it may not be as important to my selection, as he has won after tracking the leaders here at Southwell. He's unproven at this trip but loves the course and could well have a decent chance of knicking a place if he runs to his abilities. I'm pinning my hopes on him needing those few runs to get in good order and conditions are also much more likely to suit here. The yard are in exceptional form by their usual stands and have managed 3 wins from their last 10 runs. Hopefully that recent pick up in form transfers over to this animal, who is likely to be the rank outsider of the field, at odds of around 25/1>33/1. Minimal each way stakes as it's an awful race and the horse isn't in good form at all. However, stranger things have happened and it's worth a small gamble. 7:20 Kempton - Ray Of Joy - 2pts e/w @ 9/1 (WillHill) Very game Mare who has gained 4 of her 5 career wins over C&D, the latest coming 3 starts ago when off the challenge of Breathless Kiss, a winner since. She does require some luck in running and often gets into trouble but is likely to be ideally suited by what should be a truly run race. Today she runs off a mark of 85, which is just 1lb higher than that last win and her last 2 defeats have perfectly valid reasons. In the first race, she finished last of 7 after getting herself into bother 2 out, as she tried to make a move along the inside rail. It didn't work out and the jockey eased her right down when all hope was lost, which would explain why she finished last. The next run, also her last run, was over an inadequate trip of 5 furlongs, over which she doesn't have the speed to be competitive, hence why she was sent off as a 25/1 shot. However, she ran on gamely from a long way back that day and finished in 4th place, which on the face of it, was a very good run. It would take a career best effort for Ray Of Joy to win this, but she's clearly in good order of late and this is her patch. Her C&D form in 2010 reads, 3-2-5-1-3-1-7, which shows that she's generally very consistent and I expect that to continue, with a place at least and hopefully a career best performance to grab victory. Her draw in stall 12 will pretty much ensure she'll be running on along the inside rail, where it sometimes pays to be around Kempton, but it's also very risky as beaten horses dropping tend to leave the closers with little room for maneuver, though I'll take my chances. She's trained by John Jenkins, who seems to have his yard in good order of late. He has done very well with this talented 5 year old and I'm sure he'll have her ready to go close once again. A good gallop is vital to her chances, but with the likes of Feelin Foxy and Vintage in the line up, I believe they'll make sure it's a good stamina test, which my selection has in abundance. She's usually a very strong traveler from the rear of the field and I definitely think that horses closing late on will be the most likely to gain victory here. David Probert takes over in the saddle, with Fergus Sweeney having taken the reins on her last 3 starts. However, Probert was on her during her 2 year old days and got a good tune out of her at Great Leighs, but she was also hampered in her run that day and could only manage to come a 2 length 3rd after being sent off as the favourite, this is his chance to make amends for that result. Probert is an exceptional jockey in my opinion, and he rides the Kempton course very well. He has a 14% strike rate and shows a nice £33 LSP. If all goes well, the gaps will open at the right time and she'll show her impressive turn of foot to gain a 5th C&D win. If all goes badly, Ray Of Joy will be hampered by a beaten horse when trying to make a move and my medium stakes each way bet will be lost. The 9/1 looks very nice to me and I had her marked down as a 13/2 shot in what is a very open and competitive handicap. However, she's well able to get involved here and I think she's potentially well handicapped, as she's running very well when there hasn't been vast amounts of bad luck. Hopefully she'll get a chance to give her true running and prove me right!

[BKI Punter]

Re: Flat Racing - 27th of January 1:00 Southwell Caramelita 3pt win - 5/2 (Betfred) Caramelita relished the return to 5f lto to comfortably see off her rivals by two and half lengths, including today's reopposing Fashion Icon. Although she hasn't won off a mark this high in the past, I'm confident that sticking to 5f will bring about more improvement. She has had 21 career starts and only three of those have been over the minimum trip, yielding form figures of 331. She finished a quarter of a length third over 5f at Yarmouth behind Wreningham off a mark of 67 on soft ground. She clearly likes Southwell with form figures of 31 at the track, and Stephen Craine stays on board after winning his only race on the horse.