Jump Racing - 26/01/11

[BKI Punter]

2:45 Huntingdon Cross Kennon 2.5pts EW - 8/1 (PaddyPower) Shocked at the early price and think is a lot better than his 138 rating suggests. The horse will love the return to 3m2f as he is an out and out stayer with bags of stamina. I think his style of winning decieves the handicapper. Although he only beat Viking Bond by 3l at Cheltenham, to me he was full of running when he surged into the lead and drew right away towards the finish. I think he won the race a lot more easily than it looks. He ate up ground to stride alongside the leader who kicked for home on the turn very comfortably. He then went to Cheltenham and was going better than anything before being brought down three out over three miles. Runs off the same mark of 138 due to that and should appreciate the extra two furlongs once more. Worry is the track, he seems to prefer left handed, undulated tracks but has won going right handed and on a flat track, so I'm hopeful. Same jockey is on him which is good. Will be really disappointed if he doesn't feature in this race.

[Monterosso]

Re: Jump Racing - 26/01/11 2:45 Huntingdon - Sullumo - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill) This is a wide open contest and I fancy this lightly raced 8 year old to run a big race, assuming he has come out of his previous race well, having run over 3m at Chepstow in very testing ground. He ran decently but finished a well beaten 6th in the end, although it was much better than his previous 3 runs. He did fade quite tamely but it was only his 2nd run after a 6 month break and I expect he'll come on for it too. Sullumo is often let down by his jumping, in both hurdling and chasing codes but the only time he ran here at Huntingdon, he jumped well. That was over fences and he's running over hurdles here, off a mark of 125, which is 10lbs lower than when he placed in a Listed contest over this trip at Cheltenham. If he could string everything together he's certainly a lively outsider. Interestingly, connections have decided to stick blinkers on him for the first time, which I'm hoping will perk him up as he hasn't run to his abilities in a very long time but he's well handicapped and gets conditions to suit. He'll also only carry 10st 10lbs, with jockey Peter Toole taking off a valuable 3lbs. He stays the trip well when on song and he likes cut in the ground, which he'll get today. Charlie Mann trains Sullumo and thinks a fair bit of him too. He has been quite patient with his charge and hopefully it'll pay off some day soon, preferably today. Mann has a fine 24% strike rate at this track and only sends down 2 today. When Toole rides for him here, he has 4 seconds from 6 rides and is yet to taste victory. Hopefully that'll change here with this horse and they'll have their first winner for 3 weeks. Peter Toole is a very decent jockey in my opinion and last time out was his first ride on this horse, so he'll know a lot more for having had that experience and will hopefully make it count today. The horse has been given some leeway by the handicapper, as he was rated 138 just 4 runs ago and runs off 125 today, which could be understating his ability. He destroyed Maktu on his chasing debut and that one has turned into a more than decent animal, so if everything clicked, he'd have a very live chance of getting competitive. This contest is wide open, with Cross Kennon being the class act of the field but I feel he could have a very tough job off top weight, conceding at least 12lbs all round. The favourite, Salpierre is obviously on form, having won his last 3 starts but he has a 13lb rise to contend with and is also up in grade, so I feel he's also opposable. There's a few other outsiders I was interested in but I'm giving the nod to Charlie Mann's lightly raced Sullumo, who is a class act on his day and looks very well in on all known form. His run last time out was definitely a step in the right direction and he'd be able to capitalize on it if he comes on for that run, which I expect he will as he was right there 4 out but looked as if in need of the run. Hopefully he has come out of it well and is ready to pounce, as I think he's a huge price at 20/1, I'd have him half that but it's hard to know what horse will turn up so I'm only playing small each way stakes once again. Fingers and toes crossed!