Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011

[Tedthewolf]

Sport Horse Racing Event 2.10 KEMPTON Selection TUDOR PRINCE 0.5 Each-way Strength 3/10 Date 23/01/2011 Bookmaker/Price Bet365 @ 15.00 Reasoning Putting this up early as i don't think the price will last. Only nine go to post here and i can see this horse bounce back to form now dropped back into a C6 which its last win was at, here off 3lb higher. Now that trainers horses are in much better form can see this one taking a major role here and with most if not all of these questions to be answered TP has a good a chance as any and has a big e/w chance imo.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing ~Sun 23rd Jan 2011 2:10 Kempton - Revelator - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365) I think that Alan McCabe's lightly raced 4 year old could be worth taking a chance on his polytrack debut. He showed little if anything over the fibresand of Southwell on all 3 starts for his new yard, but they were all over 1 mile when the track was riding slow and he's a horse who wouldn't be suited to stamina tests at all, as shown when failing to see out the mile last time out when finishing 4th, well behind the leading trio but well ahead of the four behind him. Connections now decide to drop Revelator down in trip to 7f, which based on breeding, should be ideal. He's also trying out unknown territory with regards to how he'll handle the polytrack but breeding would again suggest that it shouldn't be an inconvenience by any means. Revelator is previously trained by Alan Jarvis, for whom he had his first 2 career runs with. He was well beaten on debut as a 2 year old before winning in very testing conditions over 6f at Catterick. He belied odds of 12/1 to win by an easy 2.5 lengths having been favoured by making all under Andrew Elliot. Next up was a run over hurdles after moving to the Paul Nicholls yard, in which he was sent off a 5/2 shot in a 5 runner field but pulled up having made a terrible mistake at the second hurdle. He was obviously not suited to running in that code then moved here to McCabe's yard to run his first race in a handicap, running poorly off 77 on two occasions, then that run off 67 last time out when showing a bit more and now he runs off 64 against some pretty poor opposition. There's potentially more to come from this fellow and he looks well handicapped on his Catterick win, in which he looked potentially very decent. Interestingly, Hobbie Gill (no idea who she is) was on board Revelator on all 3 of his starts for McCabe and is now replaced by James Doyle, who's a very capable jockey, especially on the All Weather. He's riding very well of late and this is his only ride of the day, plus it's McCabe's only runner of the day too. 3 of their last 10 runners have won and many more have went close, so the yard is clearly in decent order and due a bit more luck for sure. Revelator should also be much fitter for the 2 runs in December and the 1 this month, so we could see him in a much better light, especially off a mark that may underestimate his abilities if putting his best foot forward. The 20/1 looks too big and with a fair bit of guesswork involved, I priced him up as a fair 12/1 shot. I'll play small each way stakes in the hope that he still retains some of his ability and he's perfectly positioned to try to replicate those 'making all' tactics that gave him his sole career win from his 6 attempts. It's a very weak race too and he's worth taking a chance on. Also, tongue tie & cheekpieces are applied for the first time, so they could potentially spark some more improvement. 3:45 Kempton - Lowther - 2pts @ 9/2 (Bet365) I'm expecting a fast and furiously run race here for this Conditions Stakes race at Kempton. There are some very decent animals turning up to contest it, including 4 potential pace setters who are bound to ensure a truly run race, which will play into the hands of the progressive Lowther. He's now 6 year old but was un-raced until he turned 4 and has been in fine fettle this winter, winning off 85 and finishing a neck 2nd off 92 to Final Drive, a horse at the top of his game and also a very easy winner off 92 since. That highly impressive horse would arguably stand a favourites chance in this race and my selection gave him one of his toughest races to date. Lowther is relatively unexposed on the All Weather, having only run 6 times on it, the first being a complete write off on fibresand back in '09 but he has been most impressive in the last couple of months on polytrack, including his first run which was over 7f here in October, in which he was a very fast finishing 3/4 length 4th behind Nazreef, a winner off 91 since. That form is also strong enough to give him a huge chance in this company and I believe that 1 mile around Kempton will be ideal for this strong traveling and fast finishing 6 year old. He'll have a few lbs to find on official ratings with some of the opposition here but I don't believe his form will fizzle out any time soon and he looks likely to have a lot more to give in competitive contests. The opposition are very good, with the likes of Gerard Butler's Beauchamp Viceroy in the field and Greyfriarschorista lining up for the red-hot Mark Johnston stable, who've had 6 winners from their last 7 runners. They're the main challengers to my selection but both are much better when getting the lead and also must get the better of another 2 front running rivals. All of this should play into the hands of the Alan Bailey runner, who thrives on the back of fast gallops and usually finishes better than anything else in his races. Assuming he's still in as good form as he has been, I can't see a better chance for Lowther to gain his 2nd win on the All Weather and his first around Kempton, a course that is made for his running style. Alan Bailey's yard are also in good knick lately, with 4 of his last 12 runners winning. His last 2 runners at Kempton have also won and the booking on JP Guillambert looks very interesting, on what is only his 5th ride for the yard and the first on board this animal. Guillambert is a good jockey in my opinion and has ridden some very nice priced winners lately. He's definitely a step up in quality when compared to Slade O'Hara, who was on board Lowther last twice and I expect his added quality and the 1 mile on the back of a strong pace at Kempton could well be a winning combination. The current 9/2 looks much too big to me and I'd have him similarly priced to Johnston's runner, who's currently a 10/3 shot and as low as 5/2 in places. It'll be a tough race to win but Bailey's runner ticks all the right boxes in what should be a very exciting race. I'll make a bold prediction and guess that my selection will win by the narrowest of margins by powering home late on! Small/medium stakes though, as it's certainly not a race for lumping on, despite the horses obvious claims.