Flat Racing - 21/1/10

[BKI Punter]

6:35 Wolves Acclamazing 3pt win - 5/2 (VC) Think the Botti three year old will go off shorter than this and 5/2 is a tad generous. Is the only one with a course and distance win in the field and has only had two starts so is open to plenty of improvement. Il Battista will do well to win off 85 and looks more suited to Southwell than Wolves. Madam Mayem took four starts to get off the mark in a poor maiden and steps up to 7f for the first time. Amwell Pinot has had chances to get off the mark in handicap company, hasn't taken it and is still being raised a couple of lbs for his efforts. Swimsuit is back down to 7f but is a woeful price based on the one workmanlike win in a poor small field at 4/9 with the runner-up and third well beaten on their next starts. Silver Turn also beat a small field at Southwell and has been given quite a harsh mark imo. Acclamazing fought gamely to see off March On Beetroot who went on to beat Kingscroft who recently won nicely at odds-on. Looks to me like the horse is best handicapped out of the lot and is generous at 5/2.

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing - 21/1/10 4:15 Lingfield - Cut And Thrust - 2pts e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365) Well bred 5 year old who should be much better than he has proved to be, but I think he has his best chance to gain a victory that has eluded him for just over 2 years. He's a former Michael Jarvis trained gelding, who cost 85,000gns as a yearling but never justified that price tag and was eventually sold out of Jarvis' for 5,000gns in October of '09. However, he's highly interesting now returning to the scene of 2 of his best performances, having won here over C&D and run a fine race when coming clear with polytrack specialist, Sarah's Art, in a similar handicap over C&D when making his debut for the Mark Wellings yard. That was a very impressive run and he was only caught in the final strides of the race, in which the leading 2 pulled over 2 lengths clear of the field having taken advantage of the pace setters going off to fast in front. I'm expecting a similarly run race here, as there are a number of front runners in the field which may set it up for something coming from behind, which could be Cut And Thrust, who seems highly suited by truly run races. His course and distance form of 1-2 shows he handles conditions with ease and he hasn't been running too badly prior to a 2 month break, which he now returns from. His record fresh reads ; 6-9-4, but that doesn't tell the whole story as he wasn't beaten too far on those occasions and all were at Kempton, a track he'd be much less suited to, despite having won there before. Last time out, Cut And Thrust was sent off as a 9/2 shot in a similar contest at Wolverhampton. The final result of 7th place from 10 runners doesn't look in any way impressive, however, he was on the inside rail when making a move but couldn't get a clear run through and it was game over. That's the worst place to be positioned at Wolverhampton and I think the 4 length defeat shouldn't be taken as a bad performance in a race that didn't pan out to suit, so hopefully things go better here today. Liam Jones takes the ride today, for the 2nd time on this fellow. He's bang in form and riding at the top of his game having had 9 winners from 29 rides since the beginning of December. The only time he rode Cut And Thrust was on quick ground at Leicester, in which he finished last but he's not a good horse on the turf at all. Jones only comes for 1 ride today and rode a good winner here at Lingfield yesterday. The Mark Wellings yard didn't have a winner in all of 2010 but they don't have many horses at all and only had 26 runners in the whole year. Wellings travels a total of 320 miles to bring out his only runner of the day to his favourite track and I'm hoping that it's not all in vein, as the horse is clearly suited to Lingfield and looks very well handicapped now that he's on his last winning mark and 2lbs lower than when losing out narrowly to the rapid finishing Sarah's Art. The key to his chances are a very good gallop, which I'm anticipating and hoping for, as he's bred to get further but has lots of speed. The "slingshot" effect at Lingfield seems exactly what he enjoys and he'll hopefully come into the home straight down the middle of the track before powering home. He's drawn in stall 11, which is usually not a place to be but it should ensure he'll get a nice sit on the outside, where I'd much rather see him positioned as he'll not end up on the rail like last time out at Wolverhampton. I can't really get my head around the fact that he's priced as the 20/1 outsider of the field, as he's an 8/1 shot in my book with very solid place claims. I'm playing decent each way stakes here as he's vastly overpriced and I don't expect it to be around come race time, although he rarely ever shortens in the market. There are many dangers in what's a trappy affair but I believe he's the best handicapped and most likely to be suited by how this could pan out, so hopefully it'll all go to plan. If there's a slow gallop then I wouldn't give him much hope but it seems likely that they will go off fairly hard in front and play into the hands of this well handicapped 5 year old.