Unpredictable Divisions

[AndrewKent]

Hi there folks, I have been spending time automating the three most successful systems from Paul Steele's "Profitable Football Betting" book and I'm now at the stage where I am back testing these over the last few seasons. Although his book suggests using "perm" bets, I've opted for a simple Back/Lay the Home/Away team for my initial analysis. I've noticed that If I break down the success rate of these predictions, I can see that some divisions are more unpredictable than others. For example, La Liga has a MUCH higher predictability rate than the Championship. Granted, I have noticed that a lot of the bets in La Liga involve Barcelona and Real Madrid so I would expect a greater % of success from these teams (and probably not a lot of profit) whereas the top teams in the Championship can alter season on season depending on promotion and relegation. My question therefore is; from your experience, are there divisions you avoid betting on or the flip side, divisions you like betting on because of factors such as I have outlined above? Cheers, Andy

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Unpredictable Divisions You've hit the nail right on the head in your post mate. The Championship must be the most unpredictable league in the world:lol Not only do teams defy the odds and beat teams above them week after week after week but they also throw up a surprise promotion/relegation most seasons. I suppose some would say that it's crazy to bet on a league like that. Others would say it's a gold mine for laying the favourites.