AndrewKent Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Hi there folks, I have been spending time automating the three most successful systems from Paul Steele's "Profitable Football Betting" book and I'm now at the stage where I am back testing these over the last few seasons. Although his book suggests using "perm" bets, I've opted for a simple Back/Lay the Home/Away team for my initial analysis. I've noticed that If I break down the success rate of these predictions, I can see that some divisions are more unpredictable than others. For example, La Liga has a MUCH higher predictability rate than the Championship. Granted, I have noticed that a lot of the bets in La Liga involve Barcelona and Real Madrid so I would expect a greater % of success from these teams (and probably not a lot of profit) whereas the top teams in the Championship can alter season on season depending on promotion and relegation. My question therefore is; from your experience, are there divisions you avoid betting on or the flip side, divisions you like betting on because of factors such as I have outlined above? Cheers, Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Unpredictable Divisions You've hit the nail right on the head in your post mate. The Championship must be the most unpredictable league in the world:lol Not only do teams defy the odds and beat teams above them week after week after week but they also throw up a surprise promotion/relegation most seasons. I suppose some would say that it's crazy to bet on a league like that. Others would say it's a gold mine for laying the favourites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Unpredictable Divisions Ah thanks! I guess checking the stats does pay off! So I suppose for the simple approach that I am using, the Championship should be avoided. HOWEVER, maybe some analysis into seeing what the system throws up (ie, Power Ratings determine a home win, and then LAYING the home win) and seeing if there is profit there? Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Unpredictable Divisions Some people, like Grex and me perhaps, find the Bundesliga a little crazy too. Just take a look at the league table this season, and you will know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewKent Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Unpredictable Divisions Found that out today Relf, I was looking at some predictions from the German Leagues and they seem a bit out of line! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Unpredictable Divisions Some people' date=' like Grex and me perhaps, find the Bundesliga a little crazy too. Just take a look at the league table this season, and you will know.[/quote'] Wouldn't touch the Bundesliga with a proverbial barge-pole ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donkson Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: Unpredictable Divisions Unpredictability can be pretty profitable. Wouldn't say the epl has been predictable this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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