GaF Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 I've become somewhat enthused by Daves HU Cash Challenge (http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f88/2011-heads-up-cash-111698/) so am going to give it a bash myself. I dont know exactly where I'm at poker wise at the moment - either ability wise or motivational wise (i.e. number of hours I'll put in), so my challenge is going to be a little shy on the specifics or the targets to start off with - I think it's just along the lines of to play a little bit and make a little bit - we'll see how it oges and maybe I'll make some more specific targets down the line. I'll keep the graph updated in this post. Within the thread I'll keep updates on how I'm going - whether positive or negative. Results January 2011: All in EV of $193.68 from 7,762 hands February 2011: All in EV of $1,293.99 from 11,113 hands March 2011: All in EV of $1,953.22 from 11,485 hands Total: All in EV of $3,440.89 from 30,360 hands Goals February 2011 Volume: Achieve Gold Star - 3000 VPPs in month (pace of 108 points per day needed) Profit: Achieve all in EV profit of $1000 over the month (pace of $35.72 per day needed) Education: Study Pr1nnyraiding volume 1 (8 parts) March 2011 Volume: Achieve Gold Star - 3000 VPPs in month (pace of 97 points per day needed) Profit: Achieve all in EV profit of $1000 over the month (pace of $32.26 per day needed) Education: Complete match against thinking opponent (Nade) April 2011 Volume: Achieve Gold Star - 3000 VPPs in month (pace of 100 points per day needed) Profit: Achieve all in EV profit of $1000 over the month (pace of $33.33 per day needed) Education: Study Pr1nnyraiding volume 2 Advancement: Play NL100 HU whenever I am more than $200 ahead of target. Aim for at least 10% of hands to be at NL100. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash Off to a good start - played 2 opponents at NL50 and took over a buy in off of each of them - I'm 240 Big Blinds up after 113 hands :loon Long may it continue :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebel Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash :clap nice start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash Well done keep it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash Cheers guys :) Seeing Staffy post reminded me of my suggestion to him to use All In EV instead of Winnings for profit - and I do firmly believe that it is a better measure: If it's good for the Goose, then its good for the gander - so I've edited my graph in post 1 to show my all in ev - that's the only figure I'm interested in (it's a shame you cannot remove the winnings line from the HEM chart) - so I'll revise my earlier claim and say that I'm only 80xBB up ($39.83) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodie Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash Good luck which site you playing on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash I just "Hit n ran" :$ Didn't mean to - but "table selection" rules! I'd decided not to play the guy and clicked "sit out next BB" and then got a hand. :( :) :( :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash Good luck which site you playing on? Cheers Woodie - Pokerstars :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash Good to see you back GaF, all the best with this. Not sure what you mean by this all in EV stuff, Does it mean your keeping a record of what you should have won not what you actually won? Something basically flawed there me thinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash Yes - I'm tracking what I should win (or lose) rather than what I am actually winning. When I have enough hands behind me, it wont make any difference. In the short run, I believe it's a more accurate measure of how I'm doing (and how I will do in the future) than my actual winnings. It will also be lower variance than actual winnings, so there is an emotional benefit to focusing on this instead of actual winnings. I have absolutely zero intention at the moment of playing any higher stakes - so the bankroll implications of differences between actual and expected winnings are not important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash So your omitting the power of the subconscious mind that allows you to fold the winning hands that would have lost and call the losing hands that would have won.:eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash So your omitting the power of the subconscious mind that allows you to fold the winning hands that would have lost and call the losing hands that would have won.:eek Yeah I'm omitting the bo11ocks :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash And I thought you were God too:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash My two pence on EV, sorry haven't read all the posts yet playing atm, but i need to say EV is so flawed. If you get your money in good 10/10 times and win most of them it will show you above EV, like you've run like god but you've done all you can do. Yes the argument is you're not expected to win most so you've 'run good' which is true, but all you can do is get the money in good which means you've played 'right' yet it looks as if you've run jesus mode and sucked out loads. There's also the point that EV doesn't reflect how much money goes in when ahead/behind. Also luck can be represented by everything that happens at poker table, seat position, the way the flop falls, who's in the hand etc. etc. to have it defined by EV is none-sense imo. But genuine GL with your challenge Gaf :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash Sorry Nade - I cant agree - If I get it all in pre flop with AA against 22 10 times, and I win all 10, then my winnings are artificially high - the all in ev gives me a more accurate picture of my true win rate. Sure there are criticisms that can be levelled against all in ev as a measure of long term profitability, BUT they are far less than using winnings as a measure. And yes - there are many different types of luck - all-in ev only measures 1 - how your hands hold up - but that's better than not stripping out any elements of luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $101.07 from 553 hands Graph updated in post 1 - a decent start :) All done for the moment - hopefully play again a bit later this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $101.07 from 553 hands Nice going so far Trev. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $101.07 from 553 hands Don't use any tracking software personally so not sure about how 'all in EV' works, is calculated etc. If you get your money in as a 40/60 dog, but were getting say 5/2 to do so, then that is getting your money in behind but still the correct mathematical decision. Are you trying to not ever get cash in behind? As in that example it would actually be the wrong decision. Or does all-in EV take all that into account? And good luck with your challenge :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $101.07 from 553 hands If I put $50 all in pre flop into a $100 pot and am a 40-60 dog, then my expectation from the pot is $40. The result of the hand doesn't matter to the calculation - my expected value from the hand is to get $40, and make a loss of $10. In comparison, my winnings are totally dependant on the result of the hand. 40% of the time I will be showing a $50 profit and 60% of the time I will be showing a $50 loss. All in ev will only look at the value of the pot and your odds of winning that pot, when you are all in - all other times it will ve rge same value as your winnings. so if you put $30 into the pot and then fold when your opponent reraises all in, then your winnings and your all in ev will be recorded the same. A $30 loss. If you call for your final $20, then the calculation will be as above. (regardless of which street the money goes in) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $101.07 from 553 hands But the money already previously contributed to pot by yourself on previous streets is dead to you. If after the turn you're faced with the decision of whether or not to call your remaining $20, then the pot will be $80 and you will be getting 4/1. But the All In EV will still calculate you as 1/1 ? (Sorry, I want to understand :() Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $101.07 from 553 hands if you put $20 into a pot of $80, then the pot size is $100. If you have AKo pre flop against QQ, then your all in EV is 43.24%*$100=$43.24. (a loss of $6.76) If you put $30 into the pot preflop with AKo against QQ on a board of JsTh3d, then your all in EV is 28.69%*$100=$28.69, a loss of $21.39 (I THINK!!). So you've put in your final $20 when getting 4-1 with a 28.69% chance of winning the pot - a correct decision, but your EV shows a loss. This doesn't matter - your goal is to choose the EV decision with the highest value (which may well be negative) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $96.06 from 794 hands I think I'll just follow your progress and hope you achieve your aims :ok lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $159.70 from 1067 hands Graph updated again in Post 1 - dont worry, I wont update this frequently once the enthusiasm wears off a bit :tongue2 EV now $159.70 :) I've got 223 VPPs for my play today - so going for Supernova looks totally unachievable, for me, at this level. EDIT: I'll look to update the graph every 1000 hands or so from here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $35.81 from 1378 hands I ended up playing on waaaay too late last night and lost most of my early winnings - I was tired and playing badly and I knew it, but I couldn't stop :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $35.81 from 1378 hands Heads up is swingy GaF, hang in there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $35.81 from 1378 hands I ended up playing on waaaay too late last night and lost most of my early winnings - I was tired and playing badly and I knew it' date=' but I couldn't stop :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall:wall[/quote'] As long as you learn from it :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reb33 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $35.81 from 1378 hands Poker is complicated enough as it is and given your AA vs 22 scenario I'm not sure what you are trying to achieve but the very best of luck in reaching your goal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $83.06 from 1687 hands A bit better this afternoon than last night :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $161.53 from 1881 hands Graph updated in post 1. A pretty good session - and I've manage to get out before losing it all. Learnt my lesson ............ maybe :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Re: 2011 Heads Up Cash: All In EV $161.53 from 1881 hands Well done keep it up mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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