Flat Racing: 7th Jan 2011

[RussP]

This AW stuff ain't getting a whole lot better so taking on the 1 race tomorrow. 15.10 Lingfield 9 here for this Class 4 1m handicap and it looks a decent event. We have some nice types in this so I'm going to leave out the chance of a shock and therefore dismiss Ilie Nastase, Tiger Dream, Ensare and Expensive Problem. Kilburn also goes too as I think this race will be set up for something that comes from off the pace. Could It Be Magic has a chance on the back of its run lto but likely we'll see the bounce factor and I can't having this one at all, certainly not at 4's. This leaves 3 all of which faced each other lto. Copperwood had the run of the race and won't be able to confirm form with the other 2 underperformers lto, especially off 2lb higher. I'll have the other 2, Syrian and Charlie Smirke. The former has loads of potential but rather disappointed lto under a poor ride from Jamie Spencer. Couldn't settle but he still decide to hold it up last of all, its chance had gone after half a furlong. Won a claimer 3 starts ago but then had a troubled passage when a close up 4th over C&D nto behind the excellent Final Drive. Lto came that nightmare where it failed to settle but I expect much better here and 9/2 looks a big price if back to the form of a couple of starts back. The other, Charlie Smirke, also ran in that race where Syrian was 8th and slightly disappointed. However, I'm prepared to overlook that and conditions look better now. Eased 1lb by the handicapper is a positive as is stable form. Off a mark 3lb lower than last win, here over C&D. Record over C&D in this grade reads 1-1-4 and is 2 wins, 3 2nds from 9 starts at the track. With the lack of solid rivals, I'm happy to take the pair at combined odds of 7/4. Syrian, 1.5pts win @ 9/2 William Hill BOG Charlie Smirke, 1.5pts win @ 9/2 William Hill BOG

[Monterosso]

Re: Flat Racing: 7th Jan 2011 1:40 Lingfield - Fleur De'Lion - 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 (Bet365) I'm going to take a chance on this inconsistent 5 year old mare who hails from the Sylvester Kirk yard. Her form figures don't exactly inspire confidence nor does the fact that she races from 5lbs out of the handicap but it's a very poor race and it may be run just to suit, assuming she stays this 1m 5f trip. Her 2 career victories (inc. 1 on the AW) have been over 1m 4f, staying on well on both occasions, so she may well see out the trip with on the back of what I expect to be a very slowly run race. Both of her wins were also on the back of slowly run races and it could help her to utilize her very good turn of foot that we don't see too often. Her strike rate is generally poor, having only won once from 15 attempts on the Turf and once from 22 attempts on the all weather but on her day, she could get very competitive here, despite being out of the weights. Her career high mark was 66, and she should be running here off 46 but has to run off 51, however, her jockey, Ryan Powell, takes off 5lbs to even that out and leave her with a riding weight of 8st 5lbs, which is very low and helps over these middle distances. Fleur De'Lion returned off the back of a 6 month break to run over 1m 4f here at Lingfield, she finished 9th of 15, just 7l off the pace in what was a respectable return to the race track after some time away. They went relatively slow from the offset but when the pace quickened before the home turn, she was too far back to catch up. She ran on decently in the final furlong past beaten horse and was closing all the way to the line, suggesting that the extra furlong today may well work in her favour, even though she hasn't been proven over this trip before. She then went to Kempton but raced too prominent to chase a strong pace and faded tamely. I'd be happy enough to write off that race as it wasn't a true reflection of her abilities and really proved her inconsistencies. Her trainer, Sylvester Kirk, is in fine form of late, with 7 winners from his last 50 runners and many more running very well. He is prone to the odd big priced winner and could have another one ready to strike in this lowly class 6 0-65 handicap. Young claimer, Ryan Powell, is the man given the reins today and he has only ridden on 1 occasion for Kirk, but picks up rides on both of his runners today. He's a decent jockey who has been in good form of late and takes off a valuable 5lb claim. The favourite, Luck Of The Draw, looks a decent type and hails from the Sir Mark Prescott yard. However, he looks opposable here at odds of 8/11, especially having done all of his winning on the different surface at Southwell, albeit impressively. I couldn't back that one with stolen money and I think taking him on is certainly the best option here given his overall profile. I'm going to stick to tiny each way stakes on Fleur De'Lion, who is inconsistent but may have found her match in what is a race that lacks any strength in depth. 33/1 looks massively overpriced to me, I marked her up as a 14/1 shot and she's surely worth taking a chance on at these odds. She could get beaten out of sight or she could dot up with ease, who knows! It's worth a shot though.