Tues 5.15 : Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase

[BillyHills]

.

[ganjaman]

Re: Tues 5.15 : Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase CENTENARY NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2011 he Centenary Novices’ Handicap Chase (formerly the Jewson) was first run in 2005 and it now closes out Day 1 of the Festival. It is run over an intermediate distance of 2M 4½F, so novices without the pace for the Arkle or the stamina for RSA Chase have tended to opt for this race. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 6 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 1-1-11 16:43 23/02/2011 6yo: 0-6-19 7yo: 4-3-48 8yo: 1-3-24 9yo: 0-3-11 10yo+: 0-1-3 7 year olds have won all 4 of the 6 runnings from approximately 41.3% of the total runners. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 11-4 or more: 0-2-20 Horses carrying 10-10 to 11-3: 5-12-64 Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 1-4-32 5 of 6 winners (last 5) carried between 10-10 and 11-3, though they have represented approximately 55.2% of the total runners. Top weight: 507708 (0-0-6) Horses carrying a penalty: 670502P (0-1-7) Official Ratings Horses rated 140 or higher: 0-3-24 Horses rated 133 to 139: 5-9-61 Horses rated 132 or lower: 1-6-31 Horses officially rated 133 to 139 have won the last 5 renewals and filled 15 of 24 places from just under 53% of the total runners. Recent/Past Form 6 of 6 winners finished in the first 2 last time out 6 of 6 winners finished in the first 3 on all completed starts over fences 5 of 6 winners (last 5) were having first run in a handicap chase 6 of 6 winners had run 3 to 6 times over fences (winning no more than 1) 6 of 6 winners had their last run between 35 and 60 days ago 5 of 6 winners had won over 2M 4F+ (exception not run over further than 2M 2F) 3 of 6 winners (last 2) made their debut over fences at Exeter 4 of 6 winners ran in a hurdle race at the previous year's Festival 5 of 6 winners (last 5) were officially rated 130+ over hurdles 5 of 6 winners had run 3 to 7 times over hurdles 4 of 6 winners had been placed in a graded/listed hurdle Trainers Tom Taaffe (1-1-3) has seen all 3 of his runners go well in this run well in this, gaining a win, a third and a sixth. Philip Hobbs (1-1-7) trained the winner in 2010. Ferdy Murphy (1-0-3) and Paul Nicholls (1-0-10) have each trained the winner in the past 3 years. Nicky Henderson (0-3-10) and Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-5) have each gained multiple places from their runners. Irish trained runners (1-5-20) don’t have a bad record, winning one and half their runners making the first 6. Price 5 of 6 winners came from the first 5 in the betting Favourites (1-0-5) have won 1 of the 6 runnings giving a level stakes loss of 0.50. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 6 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 7 · Carrying 10-10 to 11-3 · Officially rated 133 to 139 · Finished in first 2 last time (35 to 60 days ago) · Never out of first 3 on all completed chase starts · Having first run in a handicap chase · Run in 3 to 6 chases & won no more than 1 · Won over at least 2M 4F · Officially rated 130 or higher over hurdles · Trained by Tom Taaffe · From the first 5 in the betting