Fri 4.00 : Christie's Foxhunter Steeple Chase

[BillyHills]

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[ganjaman]

Re: Fri 4.00 : Christie's Foxhunter Steeple Chase FOXHUNTER CHASE TRENDS 2011 The Christie’s Foxhunter Steeple Chase is one of the lower quality races that takes place at the Cheltenham Festival. It is a class 2 chase that takes place over the same course and distance as the Gold Cup, directly after the big race. It offers horses that have been running mostly in point to points a serious chance of Festival glory. In recent year it has thrown up some surprise results with 3 of the last 5 winners going off at 20/1 or bigger. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 1-0-2 7yo: 1-0-22 8yo: 0-3-32 9yo: 4-5-40 10yo: 2-3-43 11yo: 1-8-49 12yo: 0-1-30 13yo+: 1-0-17 Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 2-4-56 Horses aged 9 to 10 have a combined record of 6-8-83 Horses aged 11 or older have a combined record of 2-9-96 The only horses aged above 11 to win in the past 10 years was previous winner, Earthmover. Breeding Irish Bred: 5-10-133 British Bred: 2-7-69 French Bred: 2-3-24 German Bred: 1-0-4 Other: 0-0-5 No strong trends to be found from where the winners have been bred. Recent/Past Form 8 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out 6 of 10 winners won last time out 9 of 10 winners ran in the past 35 days 7 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases under rules (2 of 3 exceptions had yet to run twice under rules) 9 of 10 winners had run in 3 or fewer handicap chases 10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times under rules that season 10 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ 8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 2 or better (2 exceptions had yet to run in better than class 6) Other Races Previous year's winner (Baby Run): 36204 (0-2-5) The last horse to win back to back renewal was Double Silk, 1993/94. Punchestown Champion Hunter Chase winner (On The Fringe): U821 (1-1-4) Stewart Tory Memorial Hunters' Chase winner (Turthen): P19 (1-0-3) Willoughby De Broke Hunters' Chase winner (): FPP1 (1-0-4) Wilmot Smith Memorial Cup winner (Baby Run): 4156 (1-0-4) Ray Smith Memorial Chase winner (On The Fringe): 078292P2 (0-3-8) Whitelaw Challenge Cup winner (): 3368F (0-2-5) John Smith's Foxhunters winner (Silver Adonis): 2P0 (0-1-3) Walrus Hunter Chase winner (Baby Run): 7288F80 (0-1-7) 3 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Hunter Chase, finishing 301 2 of 10 winners ran in Stewart Tory Hunter Chase, finishing 1U 2 of 10 winners ran in Stratford Foxhunter Champ Chase, finishing 12 2 of 10 winners ran in Amateur Jockeys' Assoc Hunters' Chase, finishing 12 4 of 10 winners won a point to point race on their previous start. Trainers Paul Nicholls (2-1-11) has won the race twice in the past 7 years and whatever he sends out must be respected. Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-2) has saddled Baby Run to win the race last year and finish 3rd in 2009. Raymond Hurley (1-1-2) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-5) have also both won the race once in the past 10 years. Irish trained runners (1-8-50) have represented over 21% of the total runners, yet only gained 1 win in the past 10 runnings. Price 6 of 10 winners were priced 14/1 or bigger Favourites (3-0-11) have won 3 of the last 10 giving a level stakes return of zero. 4 of the last 7 beaten favourites were trained in Ireland. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: · Aged 9 or 10 · Finished in the first 3 last time in the past 35 days · Won 2+ chases under rules (or won last 2 point to point starts) · Won over 3M+ · Won or placed in a class 2 or better chase · Ran in the last 35 days · Priced 14/1 or bigger · Trained by Paul Nicholls or N Twiston-Davies