smw30 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Tentative system this, backtested a bit and it produced a fairly consistent (albeit pretty low) return. Based mainly on current form with regards to goals scored and conceded, also takes into account league position. English leagues & Scottish Premiership only. Definite paper trail, just want to try for a few weeks and see what happens. Singles only. Staking plan: - 30% of bank split between bets - 50% of profit banked, 30% of remaining bank then split between bets etc For the testing I'll be going with Betfair's odds as they tend to be best for this market. Starting bank : 100 points Week 1 Leeds v Portsmouth - 6pts @ 1.29 Tottenham v Portsmouth - 6pts @ 1.22 Barnet v Stockport - 6pts @ 1.29 Birmingham v Manchester United - 6pts @ 1.36 Southampton v Huddersfield - 6pts @ 1.33 Note that Barnet game odds are not on BetFair that I can see, odds from Boylesports. And I realise the staking plan is a bit risky but we'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCFCRulz Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: +1.5 goals Hey chap, best of luck with the system, just a word of note: I'd concentrate on only trying to utilise games over a certain threshold (say 1.3) as no matter how convincing a stats you find, I think if you just take odds around 1.2-1.25 then it will prove to difficult to win in the long run. Mainly due to the massive difference there is between 1.2 and 1.33. Maybe on your spreadsheet, open up 2 more sheets, 1 where you put in just over 1.3 results, and one where you just put in under 1.3 results and see how it works in the long run? My newly started thread based on +0.5 goals is here if interested: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/ncfcrulzs-laying-0-0-system-111397/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: +1.5 goals Yeah I suspect what we'll see over the long run is moving towards doubles/trebles of the +1.3 selections of something. Like I say, just paper trailing at this point with nothing set in stone. We'll see. I'll keep an eye on your system, looks interesting :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: +1.5 goals Good start so far. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: +1.5 goals Starting bank : 100 points Week 1 Leeds v Portsmouth - 6pts @ 1.29 WIN +1.74pts Tottenham v Portsmouth - 6pts @ 1.22 WIN +1.32pts Barnet v Stockport - 6pts @ 1.29 WIN +1.74pts Birmingham v Manchester United - 6pts @ 1.36 WIN +2.16pts Southampton v Huddersfield - 6pts @ 1.33 WIN +1.98pts Starting bank - 100pts Current bank - 108.94pts Total staked - 30pts Number of bets - 5 Winnings bets - 5 Losing bets - 0 Strike rate - 100% Yield - 29.8% Profit - +8.94pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: +1.5 goals Four for tomorrow. Rubbish odds mostly but we'll soldier on. Bank - 108.94pts -50% of previous profit - 104.47pts 30% of 104.47 = 31.341 31.341/4 = 7.83525pts per bet. To keep the table tidy I'm going to call it 7.83pts. We'll end up with bits of points floating around spare but it makes it easier and since we're just trying it out for now I'm not too fussed. Day 2 Chelsea v Bolton - 7.83pts @ 1.24 Wigan v Arsenal - 7.83pts @ 1.3 Inverness v Kilmarnock - 7.83pts @ @ 1.3 Celtic v Motherwell - 7.83pts @ 1.21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 Re: +1.5 goals Day 2 Chelsea v Bolton - 7.83pts @ 1.24 LOSS Wigan v Arsenal - 7.83pts @ 1.3 WIN +2.349pts Inverness v Kilmarnock - 7.83pts @ @ 1.3 WIN +2.349pts Celtic v Motherwell - 7.83pts @ 1.21 LOSS Starting bank - 100pts Current bank - 97.957pts Total staked - 61.341pts Number of bets - 9 Winnings bets - 7 Losing bets - 2 Strike rate - 78% Yield - -3.33% Profit - -2.043pts Damn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: +1.5 goals Ok so I'm changing tact for the future. 30% of bank split between three trebles. One Premiership, one Championship, one League One & League Two. I'm gonna start with a bank of 100pts again, don't think anyone is paying attention so who cares right? :beer Using Paddypower's odds. Ok. Round two. Starting bank 100 pts. Total stake 30pts. (10pts per treble) Day 1 Premiership : Man Utd v Stoke Everton v Tottenham Bolton v Wigan Athletic 10pts @ 1.90 Championship : Ipswich v Forest Leicester v Swansea QPR v Bristol City 10pts @ 2.27 Leagues One&Two : Notts County v Hartlepool Shrewsbury v Crewe Stockport v Morcambe 10pts @ 2.04 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: +1.5 goals Day 1 Premiership : Man Utd v Stoke Everton v Tottenham Bolton v Wigan Athletic 10pts @ 1.90 - WIN Championship : Ipswich v Forest Leicester v Swansea QPR v Bristol City 10pts @ 2.27 - LOSE Leagues One&Two : Notts County v Hartlepool Shrewsbury v Crewe Stockport v Morcambe 10pts @ 2.04 - LOSE Starting bank - 100pts Current bank - 89pts Bets - 3 Winnings bets - 1 Staked - 30pts Returned - 19pts Disappointing start. Still think this system might have a long term future so I'll try for another couple of rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: +1.5 goals For the FA Cup, will do the same three trebles with ties where Premiership sides and Championship sides are at home. Using league form on cup games is a bit of a risk but I'm confident. League One & Two treble is all league games. Total stake: 26.7pts Stake for each treble: 8.9pts Day Two Premiership Manchester United v Liverpool Blackburn v QPR Stoke v Cardiff 8.9pts @ 2.01 Championship Millwall v Birmingham Bristol City v Sheff Wed Sheff Utd v Aston Villa 8.9pts @ 2.22 Leagues One & Two Exeter v MK Dons Crewe v Wycombe Oldham v Swindon 8.9pts @ 1.91 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: +1.5 goals Day Two Premiership Manchester United v Liverpool Blackburn v QPR Stoke v Cardiff 8.9pts @ 2.01 LOSE Championship Millwall v Birmingham Bristol City v Sheff Wed Sheff Utd v Aston Villa 8.9pts @ 2.22 WIN +19.76pts Leagues One & Two Exeter v MK Dons Crewe v Wycombe Oldham v Swindon 8.9pts @ 1.91 WIN +17pts Starting bank - 100pts Current bank - 99.06pts Bets - 6 Winning bets - 3 Staked - 56.7pts Returned - 55.76pts Getting there. Managed to pick one of three games out of all the Saturday FA Cup matches to come in at under 1.5 goals. Brilliant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: +1.5 goals Day Three Premiership Sunderland v Newcastle West Brom v Blackpool West Ham v Arsenal 9.9pts @ 1.95 Championship Swansea v Palace Millwall v Ipswich Leeds v Scunthorpe 9.9pts @ 2.02 Leagues One&Two Sheff Wed v Charlton Crewe v Port Vale Chesterfield v Stevenage 9.9pts @ 1.91 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: +1.5 goals Premiership game that can get the goals has done, Championship treble already in, League One & Two one is two goals away :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: +1.5 goals Bloody Chesterfield/Stevenage! Oh well. Need a good Tyne&Wear derby for a nice profit again. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted January 16, 2011 Author Share Posted January 16, 2011 Re: +1.5 goals Day Three Premiership Sunderland v Newcastle West Brom v Blackpool West Ham v Arsenal 9.9pts @ 1.95 WIN +19.31 Championship Swansea v Palace Millwall v Ipswich Leeds v Scunthorpe 9.9pts @ 2.02 WIN +19.99 Leagues One&Two Sheff Wed v Charlton Crewe v Port Vale Chesterfield v Stevenage 9.9pts @ 1.91 LOSE Starting bank - 100pts Current bank - 108.66pts Bets - 9 Winning bets - 5 Staked - 86.4pts Returned - 95.06pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smw30 Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Re: +1.5 goals Day Four Premiership Aston Villa v Man City Newcastle v Tottenham Wolves v Liverpool 10.86pts @ 2.14 Championship Derby v Forest Boro v Preston Portsmouth v Leeds 10.86pts @ 1.99 Leagues One&Two Port Vale v Cheltenham Huddersfield v Colchester Charlton v Plymouth 10.86pts @ 1.91 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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