Total Goals

[shadowvkc]

Hi all.. this is by no means my system but I liked the idea of it. I dont like the idea of Martingale or loss recovery, but with this the chance of long losing runs are very rare. I dont know alot about football being a horse man myself, so I thought id post it here in the hope of getting your guys opinions: "FOOTBALL TOTAL GOALS MARKET Lay 1 goal or more, If a goal is scored then, Lay 2 goals or more with initial stake + loss from first lay Carry on doing this including all losses to your original stake until you win. You can only lose if there are 7 Goals or more scored or there is no liquidity for the lay you wish to place."

[froment]

Re: Total Goals I papertrialed it once, and gave up after several matches; with bank big enough (or stakes low enough ;) ), it may work to some extent; though, main flaw (and I think, the only flaw, apart from the one you mentioned, 7+ goals, and obvious one about big bank) is very late goal in the match, in injury time, when you have no time to lay next goal line. In my paper trial I didn't use only "Total goals" market, but also "Correct score" market, exactly because of liquidity - total goals market has pretty poor liquidity, and laying, say, 4 or more goals when score is, say, 2-1 is effectively the same as backing CS 2-1, because odds (not only on those two, but on all markets) are very consistent and follow each other. Apparently, you could alternatively use "Under/over" or "Next goal" markets in the same way, or "Match odds" market, too, if current score is draw, but in those cases you pay separate commissions for each market after each goal, so I stayed with "Total goals" and "Correct score" for my test. As I said, very soon I stuck with several consecutive matches when goals were scored in injury time, so before I had proper time to see odds after re-opening the market and calculate desired stakes, market was closed, and I gave up. Anyway, your own experience will tell you best, so you van try it yourself, but I suggest you paper trial first, too!

[shadowvkc]

Re: Total Goals Would it be a problem if I linked the forum where I found this tread here? They present a solution to the late goals.. from what I can understand, in the last few minutes before injury time they would lay the "correct score" as the odds would be very low.. they would lay that and cover and potential losses. In your trial, would that have worked?

[froment]

Re: Total Goals I don't know - TBH, I didn't consider any insurance bets, just straight laying of next goal line... Though, I'm still a bit suspicious towards that strategy - it would be fine as long as there is only one or two goals in second half; if goal is scored around 65-70 minute of the match, next goal line is available to lay at odds around evens, and after that, it even becomes worse than Martingale - a goal at around 80-85 minute, and you lay next goal line at 3 or 4, sometimes even more (as you'd probably choose matches where not a lot of goals are expected, so naturally - lower probability, higher odds), so total liability soon becomes dangerously high...