BBOTD - Monday/25/ October

[Monterosso]

4:20 Southwell - Becausewecan - 1pt @ 9/1 (WillHill - BOG) Heavily raced 4 year old from the Mark Johnston yard who is without a win in 2010 but has put in numerous solid efforts and is now 15lbs below his peak handicap mark. He ran poorly last time out but like many Johnston horses he has the ability to bounce back. He's running on the All Weather for the first time since coming 5th in a class 2 handicap off a mark of 95, now off a mark of 80 at his best trip (12f), I can certainly see him getting very competitive if unaffected by a hard long season. He has shaped as if still in good form when placing on 2 of his last 4 starts and he was very well backed last time out, quite significant with a Johnston horse in my opinion. Johnston only sends 2 here today, he's 31 runners without a winner which is quite a staggering amount for a man with such training talents. He does brilliantly when running horses here, his strike rate is 21% from 733 runners and he shows a level stakes profit to SP too, which is quite impressive. Joe Fanning takes the ride and he has a 19% SR here when riding for Johnston and he gets on very well with this horse, having won on him once and placing on another 5 occasions from 8 runs. Becausewecan is most effective when getting the lead and with his draw in stall 6 (of 7) he should be perfectly positioned to attack. There are no out and out pacemakers in the field and he may get an uncontested lead, that's what I'm hoping for anyways. Fanning is a very good jockey from the front and when he won aboard this fellow he made all to win a class 2 handicap over this trip, off a 5lb higher mark. He has only run on the AW on 5 occasions, running well every time. His form reads : 1-2-2-2-5. One of those 2nd placed efforts were on his only visit to this track but it was over 1 mile, a trip he's not as effective over. He'll certainly have a lot more going for him here than he has had in a lot of his races of late and I think he stands a reasonably solid chance of running a big race. 9/1 is madness in my opinion, he's the 9/2 second favourite in my book, just behind Taikoo who is a very interesting proposition here but certainly not one to get involved with at around the 3/1 mark. I'm going to side with the Johnston horse, he's about double the price I think he should be and worth medium stakes, he's tough and consistent on these surfaces and very very well handicapped. I'm expecting a big run.

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD - Monday/25/ October 2.00 Leicester - Shutterbug (7/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Showed some improvement in third run in maiden when stepped up to this trip of 7 furlongs, being by an Indian Ridge mare she should hopefully improve for the testing ground. Price is no great value on the face of it, but if this very shrewd stable have been aiming to get her nicely handicapped and win a nursery then I can see the price shortening markedly. Interesting that Neil Callan is now booked to ride aswell.