Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct

[bowles10]

Newbury & Doncaster on a decent day

[Lars]

Re: Flat racing Sat 23rd Oct 14:05 Newbury Nice contest this, and the main focus is on the two market leaders, Elzaam and Dux Scholar, who both do have strong claims going into the race. I'm opposing them both (for reasons I will explain later) with Norse Blues. Sylvester Kirk's colt has had two starts to date, both over today's trip of 7f. His first start was a pretty solid first run, showing a lot of greenness, but didn't get the kindest of passages and looked one for the future. Then absolutely turned that form around with an impressive course and distance win at huge odds of 50/1. From a wide draw, he settled nicely and accelerated nicely when asked, although it did take a couple of rather big smacks to get him going, when he did, he flew clear, even though he still looked quite green, and I'm sure there is scope for improvement with this horse. It was a taking performance and one I really like, and think he can go very close at this Group 3 level. Although the form of his maiden win isn't that strong at the moment, the DH 2nd got quite close to a well thought of Godolphin type, and it perhaps needs a couple more of the horses behind Norse Blues to run before it being fully evaluated. Of the main rivals, Elzaam is a well-thought of type but ran very poorly last time, although scoped dirty in the subsequent days from that run and maybe it should be ignored. I'm not sure a step up in trip is really needed, as to me it looked more of a sprinting type. Blinkers being reached for is to probably help it concentrate. It's allegedly very well but with these doubts about the trip, the blinkers being applied and Jarvis' doing most of his winning abroad recently, I'll avoid. Dux Scholar is an interesting one, who on the face of things, looks like a step down to 7f will suit, as he didn't seem to stay the full mile on his last run when being sent for home early. However, I'm opposing, with the main reason being I don't think he has the speed to keep up with them in the early stages of the race of a 7f contest. They didn't go particularly quickly last time and about 4f out, he looked to be struggling. With a quicker pace, he may get a bit far behind or expend too much energy keeping up. I expect a late run, possibly coming too late. Other key rivals include the Hannon/Hughes horse, Big Issue. I think a price of 11/2 currently is laughable. Was shown up 2 weeks ago in a conditions race. And although the form behind Titus Mills may end up to be a good one, he is far too short. Klammer ran a decent enough race behind Frankel, who obviously has franked the form. At the time however, I thought to myself that Klammer would win no more than a listed contest subsequent to that run, I'm gonna stick by that and oppose. Surrey Star is also in with a shout, although I think he looks a bit exposed now, and always seems to run into a decent type or two. Besides, I'm not a fan of the trainer. Well Sharp has a similar profile to my selection, and it is interesting they bring him all the way here, but I think he may need further than this in a race of this quality. The form of that run, which some quite like, I don't really rate as the ones who have won, haven't beaten much. The other horses I haven't mentioned all seem to be slightly out of their depth. I'm willing to take a chance on Norse Blues, especially as his maiden victory was so taking. He'll have to do some improving to make the frame, but he knows how to win here, has definite scope for improvement, the trainer looks to be coming into some form and I'm quite confident of him causing a surprise here. The 16's are too big. EW @ 16/1 StanJames BOG