Flat Racing 17th October

[fintron]

5.15 Naas CAPELLANUS - Gelded son of Monteu that has shown good ability over hurdles and back on the level here. Formerley with Andre Fabre in France and let in off a mark of 91 here. Could well prove to be listed grade, so with that in mind, the 44.0 Ive just taken on betfair seems way too big. 20/1 in general with the bookies but the Magic sign go as short as 14/1 and I think that price is more indicative of his chances. Not much liquidity at this stage so early in the morning but snapped up what there was.

[stewartd14]

Re: Flat Racing 17th October 2.40 Bath FORTY PROOF William Knight has his horses in great form again, and it has already been shown this season that it pays to follow him strongly when this is the case. Forty Proof comes here with solid claims in a race markedly poorer than what he has been racing in previously. He always seems to run his race, and I feel against opposition this poor, today will be the day he gets his head in front. There are a couple of unknowns that worry me, but of those with experience, I would gladly have Forty Proof as the main selection. 3.50 Bath BEST ONE Three 2nds in a row for this horse now, but he doesnt strike me as the ungenuine sort. His trainer is hitting a rich vein of form right now, and Best One handles Bath well, with a 2nd, 3rd and 4th in 5 runs here. The handicapper is taking great pleasure in nipping him up a 1 lb each time for his 2nds recently. However, he is a horse that has decent backform, and I believe he still retains slightly more ability than his mark of 55 suggests. This isnt a strong race, and I fancy him to go close again today. An ew bet to nothing at the very least. 2.30 Newcastle OPENING NITE Soft ground at Newcastle will hopefully give Opening Nite another success. Its hard to explain his shocking run last time after his success at Ayr, but his sire Azamour is one of the best soft ground sires in the game with a 24% s/r with his progeny on soft ground. That leads me to believe Opening Nite is going to relish the conditions today, and if he reproduces his Ayr run, he should take all the beating. Bets 4 pts ew Forty Proof @ 5/1 gen 5 pts ew Best One @ 5/1 gen 4 pts ew Opening Nite @ 12/1 Stans ALL BOG :ok