Jump racing Sat 16th Oct

[bowles10]

decent card at Cheltenham selections in here please

[jtw1]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct TOP DRESSING catches the eye in the 4.40 at KELSO today . A C/D winner in a CL3 race on good ground [ which ticks the same boxes today ] he should have come on for a pipe-opener at Perth 3 weeks ago . He usually improves after one or two runs . The best guide to his chance today ,imo , is the stable form ,both current and at the track . The yard has had 5 winners and 7 seconds from 20 runners in the past 14 days. Howard Johnson has a 20% strike rate at Kelso over fences [6/30] and the month of October is generally profitable with strike rates over fences since '06 being - 3/8 , 4/7 , 4/24 , 8/19 and so far 2/4 in 2010. Timmy Murphy rides 2 for the yard up here today and he has had 4 wins from 15 over fences for Johnson in the past 5 seasons . TOP DRESSING has carried top weight of 11-12 in his last 2 outings so his 11lb's less today is a positive . He will have to improve on his previous best winning rating [109] as he is rated 9lb's higher today but i'm hoping race fitness and stable form will negate most of that . 14/1 with either Paddy Power or Boylesports is well worth a bet imo

[macmuck]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct Believe me, Ive been all over this Cheltenham card for days. Quite a few horses running today are in my notebook to follow this year.... Aiteen Thirty Three will make a smashing chaser and I think that this will be his Forte. Still has his novice status and could well take advantage of that today. Acey is held in high regard tho so I'll be watching this race, tho I think he will win. The selection tho is another of Nicolls ( one which he d'snt pick on his new platform ;) Ghizao. Is well capable of winning from his current hurdles mark as he is still progressive, so significant that he goes novice chasing at this point. Another positive is that he had a breathing op in the summer. Went well at the beginning of last year and with "bags of speed" (Ruby) should win today before going on to better things. The stats tell us that Nicholls is a better jump than hurdle trainer so we will use this to our advantage today.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct 14:40 Cheltenham Classic Swain gets my vote in this class 2 handicap. Paul Nicholls tends to be a bit hit or miss at the start of the season but with two winners, a 2nd and a 3rd at this track yesterday shows that he has his yard in fine string. This gelding has already had five runs in 2010, all of which have been over the jumps. Made his chase debut this year back in May at Stratford where he was beaten by a head in a novice event. Since then he has won twice in handicap company and finished 2nd twice so it looks like he is going to be very useful over the jumps. He finished 2nd in a listed race LTO at Newton Abbot when he was only beaten by half a length by Passato who won his fourth race in a row that day. Has only had the one run at Cheltenham and that came over hurdles in a five runner race in October 2009 where he finished 2nd so to me that suggests he can handle the track unlike a lot of other horses. 1pt E/W Classic Swain @ 15/2 (Stan James - BOG)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct Kelso 4.05 Always Right 1pt EW - 9/2 11th in the Foxhunters 2 years ago. Bolted up on his last start here over 2f shorter and will love the trip today. May prefer softer ground, but won a hunters chase on good ground at Perth 2 years ago, so there shouldn't be any problems on that front. Impressive point to point record with many wins to his name. Race lacks depth and Brian Hughes a very good booking. Should be 5/2 imo.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct Cheltenham 4.25 Russian War 0.5pt EW - 16/1 Handicap debut for this irish runner, who has been winning on the bridle in novices and maidens over the summer. Had to work harder under AP lto, but I think he needs Paul Carberry. The horse is a strong traveller and Paul will put him wherever he wants today. Let's just hope he is good enough to get involved. The reason I like him is because he wins by short distances and could have hidden a lot from the handicapper. Plenty of the runners are potential improvers, but I think the price here is worth a try. The selection is fit and ready with summer of good runs behind him.

[kroni]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct 2:45 Downpatrick - WATERLOOLANE @ 20/1 E-W LADBROKES No form two starts over hurdles last year but won a PTP last month which has worked out well with the second and fourth winning next time out, worth a few quid at the price. 4:40 Kelso - CAST IRON CASEY @ 11/2 LADBROKES Goes well at this track and back down to last winning mark, recent spin over hurdles was encouraging after a break and ground should be fine. Stepping up in trip a slight worry but looking at pedigree should stay imo. 5:50 Kelso - POLITICAL PENDANT @ 7/1 LADBROKES Been dissapointing since last and only win in 2007 but is now 5lb below that mark now. Not shown alot chasing this year but ran ok on his return to hurdles last time and has gone well here before.

[bowles10]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct Think nicholls should have more winners today and sticking with Picture this and Royal mix to land two of the races. Tizzard is another trainer who does well when he comes here and Oiseau De Nuit and Kilmurry should go well for him today chucked them into an ew lucky 15

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct 2.40 CHELTENHAM MOON OVER MIAMI 22/1 BET365 Missed the 25's :wall. Long time since it has won but on a handy mark and with 4 places up for grabs can make the frame if fully wound up and that looks likely as there is support for it.

[Monterosso]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct Posted in my thread last night, there's a few quid about for him. 2:40 Cheltenham - Il Duce - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365) 10 years old now but a high quality performer on his day, ran well for a long time in the Powers Gold Cup when last seen nearly a year ago and has since returned to his former yard 10lbs lower than when last running for them on New Years day of '09. He has went well fresh before including when running well here in big handicaps. He usually runs with credit around here and has raced here a mammoth 12 times, never winning but came 2nd (in big races inc. off higher marks) on 3 occasions with 2 3rd places. This trip is right in between his optimum trips of 2m4f and 2m5f, he should also have no bothers with the ground although he's highly effective on slower ground. Wayne Hutchinson takes the ride and he has been on board him before, when giving him a decent ride to come 4th of 19 in the 2008 Powers Gold Cup, Il Duce was out of his league there but still posted a decent result despite fading tamely. He only has to do 10st 13lbs which is one of his lowest handicap weights in a while, I reckon it is a big plus for him and puts him bang in the frame on all his old form. Trainer, Alan King, is good at getting horses ready after a lay off and hopefully it's no different with this fellow, if he's primed and ready he should stand a very big chance here at a course that he goes well around, hopefully it's lucky number 13 for him. 14/1 is too big in my opinion and I had him priced up as an 8/1 shot in what looks a tough contest. He certainly has enough going for him to do well and he's worth small each way stakes at tasty odds, hopefully he feels no ill-effects from almost a year off the track and glides his way to victory for the first time since the middle of '07.

[BKI Punter]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct 2:40 Chelt Osieau De Nuit 2pts EW - 20/1 (Skybet) Price looks big to me. Likely because of the ground, but the horse ran well on good ground lto when finishing second (ahead of Twist Magic). This step-up to 20f seems sensible at this stage. Has run once at this distance but that was only his third run in heavy ground. Was a modest hurdler but has shot up in the ratings since chasing winning 5 out of 15 starts, coming second four times and third twice. Obviously there's a long break to come back from but that's factored into the price. Given his form last season (second to Kalahari King at Doncaster), if he's anywhere near his best he'll be right there.

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct LADY JINKS 3.35 Kelso. 1 point win. Would look a little vulnerable to a few unexposed natures, but should run her race and with the trip and ground not a concern, there's no reason why she cannot fight out the finish here. Track not a concern and looks a big price at around the 14/1 mark.

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct PICTURE THIS 3.50 Cheltenham. 1 point lay. Decent over hurdles, but chasing a completely different ball game all together. Might be better over fences, but my opinion is that he will need a few races to adjust, and so with being up against several capable sorts today, I'd always be prepared to let him go and win at around the 13/8 mark.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct PILLAR OF HERCULES 4.05 Kelso. Place Lay. Good chance on best form, but not seen that for a bit and also returns after a break. Has a good chance at the weights and has been gambled upon today, but I just feel that not all's well with him and he has it all to prove today. May well go and win, but at around the 4/7 mark in the place market, I'd certainly not be a player with several capable of going close today.

[Falbrav]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct SECRET TUNE 4.25 Cheltenham. 1 point win. Has a touch of class, and although hardly shows it, I think more than capable of going in at a big price. This trip and course shouldn't pose any problems and should battle all the way if on a going day.