Jump racing Sat 16th Oct

[bowles10]

decent card at Cheltenham selections in here please

[jtw1]

Re: Jump racing Sat 16th Oct TOP DRESSING catches the eye in the 4.40 at KELSO today . A C/D winner in a CL3 race on good ground [ which ticks the same boxes today ] he should have come on for a pipe-opener at Perth 3 weeks ago . He usually improves after one or two runs . The best guide to his chance today ,imo , is the stable form ,both current and at the track . The yard has had 5 winners and 7 seconds from 20 runners in the past 14 days. Howard Johnson has a 20% strike rate at Kelso over fences [6/30] and the month of October is generally profitable with strike rates over fences since '06 being - 3/8 , 4/7 , 4/24 , 8/19 and so far 2/4 in 2010. Timmy Murphy rides 2 for the yard up here today and he has had 4 wins from 15 over fences for Johnson in the past 5 seasons . TOP DRESSING has carried top weight of 11-12 in his last 2 outings so his 11lb's less today is a positive . He will have to improve on his previous best winning rating [109] as he is rated 9lb's higher today but i'm hoping race fitness and stable form will negate most of that . 14/1 with either Paddy Power or Boylesports is well worth a bet imo