best bet of the day - sun 10th oct

[fintron]

4.55 Goodwood Jordaura should have probably won more races than the two he has to date but he is known to relish slow ground and shaped promisingly at Wolverhampton last time out. He was beaten by a head off this mark at Haydock earlier in the season on ground faster than ideal which suggests he isn't weighted out of this. Spencer on so not guaranteed to be put in the race but Jamie was won on both of his last two rides which hopefully bodes well. 12/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win

[Monterosso]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct 2:35 Goodwood - Avertor - 1pts @ 7/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Unexposed 4 year old who has only had 7 career runs to date, he has only won once when winning a maiden on his second start, he went in to handicaps off a mark of 83 and flattered to deceive when coming plum last on his first 2 handicap runs. He got to grips with business when coming 3rd of 15 over 5f at Haydock after being dropped 3lbs. That was an impressive run over a trip that he may not be quick enough for and he was upped to 6f next time out on very testing ground, similar to today. He came 2nd of 17, 2 lengths behind R Woody, who he re-opposes here with a 7lb swing in his favour. That pair were well clear of the rest in a hot handicap. He was then dropped back to 5 furlongs for a class 3 event at Haydock, he ran reasonably well on quick-ish ground and finished 5th of 12. Cheveton ran in that race and came 2nd, just 1 length ahead of my selection. He has franked the form of that race to no end but he could of won it quite easily if he had a clear passage so the 1 length gap between he and my selection would and should of been significantly more. Now that Avertor is stepped up to 6f again and racing on slow ground I think he has a big chance of showing his true abilities here, he has only raced 4 times this season and should still be fresh in comparison to a lot of these who have had long tough seasons. He's drawn in stall 4 which isn't ideal but with plenty of pace not far from him I think he should get a reasonable sit in behind the leaders and hopefully run on inside the final furlong to lead, he did make all in his maiden win but I doubt similar tactics could be applied from stall 4 and with a couple of other front runners in the field. Avertor is trained by the wonderful Robert Charlton who has witnessed his stable come right into form in recent times and he has a 22% strike rate in the past month after having numerous winners. He usually does very well when sending horses to Goodwood and he has a good 17% strike rate here and 5 out of 13 sent here this year have ended up in the winners enclosure. Steve Drowne takes the ride on Avertor as he has done on all bar 1 of his career starts, he should know exactly what to do with this fellow. Drowne is riding well of late and has a 21% strike rate on course when riding horses over 4 years old for Charlton, I also think he's a very good jockey over the shorter distances and in what looks likely to be a tactical affair he could well be a massive benefit to this horse on such a tricky track like Goodwood. I'm also interested that Robert Charlton now reaches for the Blinkers on this gelding, he has pulled strongly and hung on a number of occasions and if the blinkers have the desired effect it may just bring out some more ability in this horse. He certainly has conditions to suit today and has been nibbled at over night having moved from 8's into his current price of 7/1. He's 9/2 second favourite in my book and at 7's with 1/4 the odds paid he's worth a decent each way stake. He certainly has the ability to do well here and will eventually prove to be a better horse than his mark of 82, I hope that's today but knowing my luck it won't be. I'll take a chance anyways and he's my only selection for the day.

[andyjkmak]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct 2.00 Goodwood Honourable Endeavor could surprise here. The stable has been in very good form lately with a number of big price winners and places and this is the only runner today. Not much of a race anyway and with the ground the way it is anything could win. 0.5 Pts E/W 33/1 Bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct 505 Ffos Las: Treasury Council EW (20/1 WH) A chance taken on Treasury Council here back over the right trip and on the right ground. The trainer seems to have been running this one on anything but just lately and you can ignore many of his recent races, he hates soft ground and two miles is way too short. Comes here today on a low mark and also with the stables claiming rider taking another 10lbs off so if he's ever going to show his best it may be today, it has to be said he's a bit of a monkey too but the price is right to take the risk.

[calculus]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct 3.45 Goodwood - Celtic Sixpence 1pt Win (10/3 B365) Stuck with an awful internet connection so will have to be brief. Finished 2nd on all three starts to date, but doesn't look to be too much wrong with her attitude. Appears to handle a bit of cut well enough, Paul Hanagan replaces Carson in the saddle and at the prices I much prefer her to the fav New Latin.

[Aidymac]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct Luisant - Curragh 2:45 Has been very unfortunate not to have won a race of late, it has been 2nd on 5 of its last 6 starts. Runs here in Listed today and should be bang there as it was 2nd in a Group 3 not so long ago. Has won over the trip 3 times already and the ground should be fine. No reason why it wont be battling out the finish and a win is overdue. 1 Point win @ 10/3 (Paddypower) BOG

[jayalexander]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct 2:35 Goodwood Class 3 Handicap 3yo+ 6f A change in jockey has worked in improving the performances of R Woody throughout 2010 and today is the turn of George Baker. He starts with the 3yo having won twice over the distance, including once here. Apart from his very first race, he only came to run on turf this summer and has a pleasing record, reading 5142315. Coming from a yard that is showing profit at this track, plus having Baker in the saddle who is on a double figure percentage strike rate for the past fortnight, he may well be able to snatch victory here. He's also won previously won in bigger fields than this and on both good and soft going by a couple of lengths. I feel there's still a lot of improvement in him and he was underestimated last Dec when romping home on a 53 mark at 100/1! He was subsequently raised to 73 and is now at 89. His last win also came after a similar rest period. There's a lot in his favour for this race, so I'll snap up 8/1 with Bet365 for the win - was at 10 last night, which suggests an excellent opportunity for trading.

[andyjkmak]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct

2.00 Goodwood Honourable Endeavor could surprise here. The stable has been in very good form lately with a number of big price winners and places and this is the only runner today. Not much of a race anyway and with the ground the way it is anything could win. 0.5 Pts E/W 33/1 Bet365

As low as 14/1 in many places now:hope

[mileni4uk]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct Ffos Las 4.30 Rio Gael EW - 7/1 @ Boyle, SJ This is a better race than those he's been contesting over the summer, but I like the yard's novices going into handicap company. 117 could be a fair mark. Two starts ago he finished 2nd to a Swinbank horse both finishing miles clear of the rest. Last time out he again finished 2nd to Garry Moore horse, who won since. With Hobbs in such great form we get Exulto underpriced. Points Of View has been in great form, but is now racing in the 130s and I think handicapper finally caught him lto. Gloucester could run a race if he gets good pace, but he just doesn't like to get his head infront and is not one to trust. From the rest I think Enlightment will find this too quick back over hurdles. Bolton Hall and Disdasha are on a career high marks, while Black Jack Blues is top weight and will possibly need the run. Rio Gael should improve for this handicap debut and in 8 runner field, makes a good EW appeal.

[Lars]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct 14:10 Ffos Las Although you may argue I've missed the price due to a little bit of market support (10/1 to 6/1 in places), that only makes me more confident of Annimation going very close today on her hurdling bow. Has ran five times to date in bumpers. Her first two efforts were particularly promising, the second in particular in which she ran very green throughout but plucked on for a unlikely fourth. Followed up that promise with a win on very heavy ground, fending off a particularly decent looking Venetia Williams mount. Seemed to struggle under the winning penalty until her last run, the Listed Aintree bumper in which she ran a massive race at a massive price. Showed a decent attitude from that and I believe she'll take to hurdles pretty easily. Trainer is in decent form at present, with 1 win and two placed efforts from his last six runs. Small about of doubt about her race-fitness but the market support seems to indicate that she's ready to run. The Tim-Vaughan runner is a big danger, as I think the step down in trip will be beneficial but is hardly much of a price to be taking risks like that, and Silver Gypsy will be her main competition, after winning a bumper easily. However, Annimation is double the price of both of these. EW @ 7/1 >Bet365 BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct 4:20 Goodwood - Weapon Of Choice - Back Nice 2nd in debut lto and should be able to go 1 better here. This looks a weak race and his form looks standout in the context. 1pt win @ 5/6 Bet365 BOG

[Lars]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct My pick now a NR. Just a quick write up 16:15 Curragh Zerashan has ran into two decent types in his last two times in handicap company and think he can step up to listed company and run a big race. Has been racing over 10f since winning a Fairyhouse maiden rather nicely. Has never been further than 2 lengths behind the winner in his next three races, including at Leopardstown when he was heavily backed but was just touched off. Step up in trip should suit on running style and think the tilt at some black type is justified. Trainer having a fantastic season. EW @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG

[punterpete]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct 4.10 Bath Yurituni Win @ 13/2 Stan James Not the most straight forward or consistant but got her act together last time out at Pontefract when blinkered for the first time. Only goes up 2 pounds for that win and is a course and winner. Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle today and could bring this one home for trainer Eve Johnson Houghton.

[StuSimmy]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct 14:35 Goodwood I like the chances of the lightly raced Avertor in this race. Roger Charlton's gelding has only had 7 runs to date, managing one win and three places from those. Won a maiden at Doncaster in good to soft ground as a 2 year old last year when making all. Won in decent fashion that day by 4 and a half lengths. His best piece of form came over 6 furlongs at Newmarket on his penultimate start back in August. Was 2nd of 17 that day and although he finished 2 and a quarter lengths off the winner, he was a clear second by two and a half lengths himself. On a mark of 82 now but its definitely a mark he can win off of considering he is still sure to improve. Fitted with blinkers for the first time today which could bring on some extra improvement. Will like the ground with a bit of cut in it today as well. win Avertor @ 5/1 (>Bet365 - BOG)

[Trotter]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct Bath 4.10 - Grand Zafeen - win at 7/1 BOG with Stan James Goes well here with a 1st and 2nd in his two runs at the track Has never won with cut in the ground but has finished a half length second in a handicap on good to soft on turf. he's also won on the polytrack whicjh i think is equvalent to good to soft, or at least it's not 'firm' Hopefully he'll be ok on the going, tho' it's not certain Won last time out, is 4lbs higher today but has a claimer taking 7 lbs off Channon yard in pretty good nick Should be in with a good chance !

[wafer]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct 4:55 Bullet Man @ Goodwood - Hasn't won since May last year but has been knocking on the door.Finished 2nd LTO at Hamilton when todays Jockey Paul Hannigan was onboard and is off a similar mark today 1 pt Win @ 13/2 Bluesq

[Falbrav]

Re: best bet of the day - sun 10th oct BILASH 4.45 Bath. 1 point win. Very consistent and only has 1 to beat in my opinion (Cathy Gannon's). Should get the race run to suit and trip and ground's fine. Should go very close.