NIGEL2611 Posted October 6, 2010 Share Posted October 6, 2010 Heineken Cup 2011 Friday 8th October 2010, 19:30 Outright Betting Toulouse 7/2 Leinster 16/1 Castres 66/1 Leicester 15/2 Cardiff Blues 16/1 London Irish 66/1 Clermont Auvergne 8/1 Perpignan 16/1 Edinburgh 175/1 Munster 9/1 Toulon 22/1 Glasgow Warriors 200/1 Northampton 12/1 Saracens 22/1 Scarlets 200/1 Biarritz 12/1 Wasps 33/1 Dragons 300/1 Bath 14/1 Ulster 50/1 Benetton Treviso 1000/1 Ospreys 14/1 Racing Metro 50/1 Aironi Rugby 1000/1 Amlin Challenge Win Outright Any Heineken Cup Qualifier evensStade Francais 3/1Gloucester 8/1Harlequins 10/1Sale 12/1Newcastle 22/1Brive 25/1Bayonne 33/1Bourgoin 33/1Leeds 33/1Montpellier 40/1Connacht 50/1Exeter 66/1Agen 100/1La Rochelle 100/1Crociati Rugby 250/1Petrarca Rugby 500/1Rovigo 500/1Bucuresti Oaks 1000/1Cavalieri Prato 1000/1El Salvador 1000/1 Heineken Cup Pool 1 Winner Northampton 10/11 Cardiff Blues 6/5 Castres 9/1 Edinburgh 25/1 Heineken Cup Pool 2 winner Clermont Auvergne 6/4 Saracens 5/2 Leinster 5/2 Racing Metro 6/1 Heineken Cup Pool 3 Winner Munster 6/4 Ospreys 9/5 Toulon 3/1 London Irish 6/1 Heineken Cup Pool 4 Winner Biarritz 11/10 Bath 11/10 Ulster 11/2 Aironi Rugby 300/1 Heineken Cup Pool 5 Winner Leicester 4/9 Perpignan 2/1 Scarlets 11/1 Benetton Treviso 275/1 Heineken Cup Pool 6 Winner Toulouse 1/6 Wasps 7/2 Glasgow Warriors 33/1 Dragons 60/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 6, 2010 Author Share Posted October 6, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge One stand out price for me in the Amlin Challenge, Montpellier at 40/1! Currently sitting fourth in the Top 14, they are unbeaten at home this season and that includes victories against Racing Metro & Toulouse! In their Pool stage they face up to Bourgoin who face an uphill struggle to survive in the Top 14!, Exeter who will love this competition, but they will want to survive their first season in the Premiership! And Newcastle who are already struggling to survive in the Premiership! A bit of a re-occuring theme amongst their rivals. A lot will depend on who Montpellier choose to play for them, but at least for the pool stage their reserves may well do the job for them! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 6, 2010 Author Share Posted October 6, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge Heineken Cup Pools 1-Northampton have started the season all guns blazing, but lack the experience of their closest rivals Cardiff in this competition. I cannot choose between the two but Edinburgh away may well be the downfall of one of these sides. 2-What a group, in World Cup terms this is the group of death! Clermont are rightly favorites but realistically any of these teams could win the pool. 3-Munster will miss Mafi, after his suspension but still ooze class elsewhere. Toulon are finding their feet after a quiet start to the Top 14 and also lack experience in this competition, however Mr Wilkinson is still doing the business for them and will delight in taking on Mr O'Gara! London Irish sometimes let themselves down in this competition, but they do have the potential to score quicks points and are strong enough to compete in the forwards. Ospreys may struggle, but I write them off at my peril. I would argue that they have had an easy start to the Magner's League and they have already lost away to Munster in that competition. 4-Bath or Biarritz? On the one hand you have Bath who have started well but just got blitzed by their local rivals, who were struggling and then on the other you have a team that were misfiring at times, this season and then went and beat their local rivals! Bath will miss Moody, but Barkley has started the season well for them. "What about Ulster!" I hear you cry, I love Ravenhill, although they will not be beaten at home, I fear they may well struggle on their travels and when they have won it has not been by much, in their Magner's League games this season. 5-Leicester will have a tough start without a recognised Fly Half, if they can make a good start and then Flood returns they may well finish top, but they have leaked tries this season! Perpignan due to injuries have started the Top 14 slowly and because of this, come the latter stages their minds may well be on finishing higher in the Top 14. Treviso were a surprise last year, beating Perpignan 9-8 on the opening weekend last season and they are packed full of Italian internationals. An upset on the cards again this season? Scarlets have been scoring lots of points in the Magners but not really against any of the big guns yet and may rely too heavily on Stephen Jones. 6-TOULOUSE!!! Need I say anymore, with the others beating each other in equal measures. My bets- Bath 11/10-Biarritz will not enjoy Ravenhill in January! Cracking last match match Biarritz v Bath. Perpignan 2/1-With Leicester at 4/9, this is too good to miss! Racing Metro 6/1 & Saracens 5/2 The two sides at home on the final pool games, this pool could really be that close and home advantage could be crucial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homercleese Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge Howye Nigel- disagree on a few of your comments above but agree on most. I do think Ulser will come out of that group though, and ill be lumping on before tomorrows game. Anyway, tongiht, Newcastle v Bourgoin. Its sunny in Newcastle, it's not their full team, and they had a tough game on saturday. Obviously Newcastle have to try stay in the premiership, and in general, theyre pretty shit. Bourgoin also resting players, but they have pedigree, they have dryness on the field, and they'll have a go. Ive never rated Manning one bit to be honest, except when he did a dance for Munster against NZealand 2 years ago at Thomond park haha:D, and he's at 10 tonight. Bourgoin are playing some regulars and had a good solid win against Brive last weekend. This is all about value for me, Hills have Bourgoin 1-12 at 4/1. Betfair im seeing 6.4 and im gonna take it. Betpack.com have 11/2. And to me its worth a tenner or 15 quid. I reckon the quality of the TOP 14 is a good bit above the GP, so for that reason im going Bourgoin 1-12. I dont expect this to win, but it's worth the risk no doubt about it with those odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 7, 2010 Author Share Posted October 7, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge Hi Homercleese, I certainly wouldn't put you off Bourgoin tonight, in fact I might join you. I watched Newcastle at Quins last Saturday, it wasn't the best game of Rugby & Newcastle were made to look better than they are by a misfiring Quins team. No Gopperth shows you how serious Newcastle are about this competition, not very and his kicking may well be missed this evening! I just taken the plunge with Bourgoin @ Skybet with the winning margin. 1-5pts 9/1 6-10pts 14/1 & covered myself with the 11-15pts @ 30/1 Apologies to all those Geordie fans, I took a closer look at the Bourgoin side and they are not coming with the reserves! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homercleese Posted October 7, 2010 Share Posted October 7, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge we were very unlucky there Nigel- conbination of french arrogance and not giving a shit lost it for us- they're so relaxed sometimes it makes ye sick- was the right bet though. THat newcastle team was rubbish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 7, 2010 Author Share Posted October 7, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge Yes, homercleese! Newcastle took their chances, which is what it is all about I suppose, but Bourgoin & Newcastle's basic ball skills were rubbish. The commentators made this game sound a lot better than it actually was, Bourgoin missed too many first up tackles, their defensive set up was average and Newcastle were no better than they were against Quins last week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marseille Posted October 8, 2010 Share Posted October 8, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge SportRugby Union EventNorthampton - Castres SelectionNorthampton -13.5 Strength9/10 Date08/10/2010 Bookmaker/PriceLadbrokes @ 1.90 ReasoningH cup start tonight and Northamton 2nd of premiershipwith 4win in 5 match play receive Castres 10th of top14.Castres qualify in H cup after a fantastic season last year but this one seems not in same form with no away win and 2 loose in a row at Clermont & Toulon.For this reason coach choose to let some player at home like Ducalcon or scorer Teulet.Hoeft is injured and Andrew with Bai will start on bench.Turnover in this team of castres and vs Northampton who only loose 3 match in 3 year at home it will be very difficult for frenchy to score some point in Franklin's Gardens stadium. North will start with their best squad no key injury all player is ready see them winning by more than 15 GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 9, 2010 Author Share Posted October 9, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge Leinster v Racing Metro Even with Racing's issues at Fly Half (first two choices out injured) -9 is a big ask for Leinster, Racing have only been beaten once this season by more than nine, away from home and that was against Montpellier. Leinster do have a host of Irish internationals in their side, but as Castres proved last night the French do not go away now for a jolly! Also Dave Sexton starts for the first time this season for Leinster, so how match fit will he be? I'll still believe Leinster will win but I will take points difference of Leinster by 1-5 11/2Leinster by 6-10 :void(0)'>11/2 On offer with Skybet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 9, 2010 Author Share Posted October 9, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge I do think Ulser will come out of that group though, and ill be lumping on before tomorrows game. Solid start for the Ulstermen homercleese and I wouldn't be too upset if the Ulstermen did top the group, as I have a bit of a soft spot for them (family links etc.). But in the match reports they seem to lack composure in the first half and they cannot aford to do this away from home! STAND UP FOR THE ULSTERMEN!!! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 9, 2010 Author Share Posted October 9, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge Toulon v Ospreys -3 against Toulon is easily achievable for a Toulon side dripping with talent, this is not to say Opsrey's are not but they do not have the money of the French. Osprey's however do boast the second best defence in the Magners League, but their worst defeat away was against Munster 22-10 and you must think that with the nagging boot of Mr Wilkinson today, something of the same could be on the cards! Toulon had a shaky start to the season but have been steadily improving so this will also count in their favour. Ospreys did have a good away win at the Scarlets, in their last game but the worrying stat about that game was the six penalties Stephen Jones kicked over for the Scarlets. Give away that amount of penalties today and they will suffer the consequences! Toulon points difference 6-10 9/2 & a little look at 11-15 @ 15/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homercleese Posted October 10, 2010 Share Posted October 10, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge Howye nigel, havent been on posting, but its been an ok wkend so far. Got let down Friday by Northampton- had the double ulster 21-30 and Nthampton 11-20. Couldnt believe reihana missing all those penalties, f**ker cost me 400 quid! anyway, had a single leinster yesterday, 11-20 ( paid for my ticket! ) and was sickened, cos i didnt have time to go to willhill and do the quadruple 1-12 i had intended, but got 1-10 trixie on toulon, cardiff and scarlets , so made out there! :cow happy days. (although i would have made a fortune had i got up earlyenough to put Leicester on that aswell 1-12 in hills (didnt fancy them for 1-10 for some reason....) ANYWAY, apologies all for the stream of conciousness- Biarritz 1-12 today 7/2, pure value that, stuck 20 quid on betfair. Bath aint all that, Biaitz finding form, and one french team has to get something away from home surely! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homercleese Posted October 10, 2010 Share Posted October 10, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NIGEL2611 Posted October 10, 2010 Author Share Posted October 10, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge :clap Well done homercleese, after being left a nervous wreck by Toulon my weekend hasn't been a bad one. Unfortunately I couldn't post today as I was at a Junior Rugby festival all day, nursing a hangover! Here's to next weekend! :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homercleese Posted October 10, 2010 Share Posted October 10, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge you said it man! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b10111 Posted October 13, 2010 Share Posted October 13, 2010 Re: Rugby Union-Heineken Cup & Amlin Challenge :clap Well done homercleese, after being left a nervous wreck by Toulon my weekend hasn't been a bad one. Unfortunately I couldn't post today as I was at a Junior Rugby festival all day, nursing a hangover! Here's to next weekend! :beer Hi Nigel, apologies for not putting up any posts in the last few weeks, I’ve been a bit short on time, after having a nice look in on the first weekend, I’m willing to go big this weekend. Can you put this weekends post up, want to get my previews in nice and early so that I can psyche myself up on which picks I should go large on This is your favourite tournament Nigel so I look forward to hearing your calls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.