BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY)

[Aidymac]

Tritonville Lodge - Ludlow 3:20 Looks a rather nice price here tomorrow, i genuinely thought this horse would be favourite. All its wins have come on good ground or better and tomorrow it has good ground which is very good. The switch to chasing has seen this horse run 2 very big races and if building on that it should be in with a right good chance tomorrow. 1 Point win @ 13/2 (Hills) BOG

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 6TH OF OCTOBER (WEDNESDAY) 4:10 Nottingham - Norwegian Dancer - 1pt @ 8/1 (Bet365 - BOG) Consistent yet frustrating 4 year old who has lots of ability and a high cruising speed but yet seems to find very little when asked to challenge. I've selected him on numerous occasions, watched him cruise through the race and end up as one of the last horses off the bridle but time and time again he has found very little. However, he now gets a chance to run on very testing ground and I think he may just be the type who could relish these conditions. He has only ever encountered very soft ground on one occasion which was his debut, he finished 5th of 12, hit 1/4 in running and looked like the likely winner. He didn't have the pace in the final furlong of 7 and ended up 2 lengths back in 5th. Today he'll be racing over 10f which is his ideal trip over which he has achieved his only 2 career wins. He has also run over this C&D back in July where he finished 3rd of 11, 3 lengths behind Spoken who has since won off a mark of 92. The 2nd placed horse, Bahamian Music, also won next time out on soft ground over this C&D. My selection finished 1 length behind Ailsa Craig last time out at Ripon in a class 3 contest, he steps down in grade here, carrying more weight but back amongst worse horses which should help. The horse who finished directly behind him in 5th has also won since so his form looks reasonably solid and it's only a matter of time before he gets his neck in front again. Norwegian Dancer will be running off a mark of 79 today, at his peak he was rated 8lbs higher and has won off a mark 4lbs larger than tomorrows, he's certainly on a winnable mark and if he gets some luck in running I think he stands a solid chance here off a mark that is below his abilities. He has also came second on Good to Soft ground before, so that combined with his debut run on Soft ground indicates he may just like the conditions today, he certainly struck me as one who would. Norwegian Dancer is trained by Ed McMahon who has been in great form over the last 6 weeks with 10 winners from 30 runners giving him a highly impressive 33% strike rate since the last week of August. He also won this race last year with a 4 year old horse who had a quite similar profile to my selection. This is the only horse Ed sends to Nottingham tomorrow, he has a good 14% strike rate at the course, that jumps up massively to 25% when Graham Gibbons rides at the course for him with 7 winners from 27 rides with another 11 placing. Gibbons knows the horse well and has been on board him on 7 occasions and has yet to get him over the line in first, with a bit of luck I think that could change today. Gibbons comes here for only 2 rides tomorrow and he has been riding reasonably well of late with a few winners in the last couple of weeks, he rides the course well and shows a profit when riding here, he also has a very good 14% strike rate at Nottingham. If he can get the Ed McMahon trained gelding to settle in mid-division he may be staying on best of the rest on this testing ground. He certainly has the ability to and he was 9/2 second favourite in my book just behind the Fahey horse Gritstone, who I rate as a big danger but worse value. The 8/1 on Norwegian Dancer is far too big and I'd say he'll be backed into something a lot lower than that. Hopefully he'll run well and justify medium sized stakes.