Robinnho

Jasmine Paolini to beat Dayana Yastremska at 1.67 with William Hill
Burel delivered for us yesterday as well, and I'll side with Paolini today. Great H2H record, home conditions, slower clay, I'm all for it. Yastremska is very likely to get frustrated at some point, and hitting Paolini out of the court will be tough.

Clara Burel to beat Cristina Bucsa at 1.73 with William Hill
I'll gladly back Burel again. Bucsa should be tougher than Grabher, but she played a surprisingly long match against Curmi yesterday, and recovery won't be easy due to all the heat and late end. Burel should be completely fresh, on the other hand, and that could very well play a role deciding the result here.

Clara Burel to beat Julia Grabher at 1.74 with Unibet
Grabher is on a long losing streak at the moment, and it might be a good idea to keep opposing her until she gets back to winning ways. Burel was on a good run last week as well, so she brings some form here at least.

Carlos Alcaraz to beat Novak Djokovic at 2.65 with Unibet
I'm also going to side with the underdog in the finals tomorrow, I think there's some value in the odds. Djokovic is the more accomplished, for sure, but he's been showing plenty of signs of weakness here and there, and I think Alcaraz will have enough opportunities. I don't think there's as much value here as in Vondrousova today, but I'd nevertheless be like 2.37 here. 

Marketa Vondrousova to beat Jessica Pegula at 2.20 with William Hill
Watching both play so far, I think that Vondrousova shouldn't be the underdog here, and that it's a 50/50 proposition at the very least. Pegula is yet to face a classy grass court opponent as well, while the Czech has already faced some quality opposition in Vekic, Kudermetova, and even Bouzkova. I'm happy to go with the battle-tested Vondrousova at odds against.

Natalija Stevanovic to beat Tamara Korpatsch at 1.80 with William Hill
This is a bet both for Stevanovic, who looks to be in the form of her life, and against Korpatsch, who was absolutely awful at the start of her R1 match. She recovered as the match progressed, but she's been up and down recently, almost not even qualifying, and there's every chance that she'll find it hard to deal with Stevanovic's tricky slices.
Cameron Norrie (-1.5 sets) to beat Christopher Eubanks at 1.63 with Unibet
Over the years, Norrie has grown into a world-class player, and the conditions don't seem to be favoring big serves as much as you'd expect, which should take the sting off Eubanks' biggest weapon. The set handicap looks like a good compromise to me here. 
 

Quite a strange day yesterday to see Korda and Sakkari get beaten. Sakkari with her second 1st round loss at a major in a row.  Looked to be in control and then fell apart against Kostyk.
I do see a day of upsets today.
I think (as Smiles noted) that Svitolina beats Mertens. Bencic beats Collins who has hardly played any on grass.
For me Karatsev is on the comeback. Probably overplayed and burnt himself out for 18 months when he finally cracked the top 70 or so. Guy looked mentally frazzled and was beating himself. He looks far calmer on the court now, and I think he posses a real threat to Rublev.  Not going crazy here, just a small bet on Karatsev win.
 You look at the order of play, and the fare on Centre and #1 court is rubbish. 5 lousy matches. As a spectacle only the Murray v Tsitsipas match deserves it's place. Would you want a ticket for court #1? Not me. 
For me match of the day is Francisco Cerundolo versus Jiri Lehecka. Both excellent, and it is one that can go either way. Nothing to choose between them, and probably the over games is the way to go.
I think Tsitsipas beats Andy Murray. Thiem was a much tougher game, but he showed some fortitude in getting through that.  Age catches up with everyone and a young, good opponent will hurt Andy. I also don't think Murray can pressurize the Tsitsipas backhand as much as a taller player.
I think Fernandez has a good chance against Garcia. She has to keep her focus and composure against a not brilliant opponent. Garcia seems to win but never convincingly.
AS a 'bet the house banker' I would go for Tiafoe v Stricker. Stricker came back from 1-4 down 5th set yesterday to win 7-5 against Popyrin,  and he will be feeling it.
My low priced fav 5 legged bet would be Tiafoe, Muchova, Rybakina, Dimitrov and Ruud which gives about 14 to 10. Muchova just too athletic, Rybakina too good behind her serve, Dimitrov excellent on grass and Ruud very solid.
 

Svitolina to beat Mertens - 2.36 with Betfair
Mertens is a bit short for me here. She doesn't have any huge weapons, she can be unreliable and Svitolina is in decent form. Although grass isn't her fave surface she's not Trevisan levels of bad on the grass so I see this as more 50/50. 
Collins to beat Bencic - 3.2 with Bet365
Bencic has hardly played recently and will have a tougher match against Collins who is 3-3 on grass at odds over 2.5. Bencic should win but she's a bit short for me so worth opposing. 

Keys to beat Kartal 2-0 at 1.67 with Bet365
Keys in great form winning the title last week. Bit of rest and now against Kartal who is multiple levels below Keys, in her first MD match here. She won't deal with Keys' serve and will be like a rabbit in headlights. 

Viktoria Azarenka to beat Nadia Podoroska 2-0 at 1.80 with Bet365
Podoroska had the luck of drawing the incredibly shaky Martincova in the first round, but she'll be up against a tougher challenge here, and I hated her performance against Navarro when I last saw her, that was just dreadful. Azarenka isn't the force she's once been anymore, but this is a complete mismatch, and she could build on her round one performance here.
Marketa Vondrousova to beat Veronika Kudermetova at 2.28 with Unibet
Kudermetova had a hard time against Kanepi in the previous round, and she seems not to be fully fit to me. If there's any truth to that, she'll find it hard against Vondrousova, who looked very good against Stearns in the first round, producing some real stunners and just outplaying her fairly talented opponent. No reason to have Kudermetova as the fav here imo. 

Two bets I like for today at Wimbledon. 
L. Fruhvirtova to beat Martic - 2.54 with Betfair
Svitolina to beat V. Williams - 1.49 with Betfair. 
Martic is very up and down at the moment and Fruhvirtova has had a few matches on grass with wins over Pera and Svitolina so won't be an easy match up for her. 
Svitolina will wear down Venus, she will keep making her play another shot and Venus won't be able to keep running to get the ball back. The only way Venus wins this is in two very quick sets because Svitolina can't find any rhythm early on. 
 
 

Most importantly, good luck to everyone!
Cristina Bucsa to beat Kamilla Rakhimova at 1.62 with Bet365
I saw a bit of Bucsa on grass this season, and she looked pretty fine, while Rakhimova has some bad defeats to her name, she played really poorly against Zacarias, for example.
Storm Hunter to beat Xinyu Wang at 2.00 with Bet365
Wang retired from her match against Fourlis, and Hunter comes into this on the back of three wins in a row, so I think there's every chance she's finally going to get one over the Chinese player. At odds against, I'm willing to side with the uninjured and in-form player.
Jaume Munar to beat John Isner at 3.30 with William Hill
This is a really speculative pick, but I like the price. Neither has played on grass so far this season, and Isner is obviously the better grass court player, BUT he's also semi-retired at this point, having played only 12 matches with a 4-8 record this year. He won his 4 matches in Dallas, he's winless otherwise. Munar is at least fit, we know that, and I'm basically betting that this might be enough for an upset.
 

Teylor Fritz to beat Hanfmann is a combo material. Short price around 1.24 but i can't see losing this one. You can not imagine how bad is Hanfmann, he won against Tsitsipas as i tipped but Tsitsipas is a big fraud this period.
Our good contributor Neliovan, informed me that himself is a tennis coach, and that what Tsitsipas is trying with his new one handed backhand may take time, or years to work. Thanks very much, i am not a tennis coach, i am a tennis observer, so i observe what exists now, i can't move to the dark future to observe! And there are NO guarantees in this life. I mean this backhand may work in future, may not work. What i observe now is that Tsitsipas in terrible and fraud. A play boy who change girl friend every week or two. Now he is with Badosa the Spanish tennis player, but it not clear if he has only her or both the Badosa sisters. I am thinking to place a bet on Thiem, but what stops me, is the fact that i didn't see Thiem playing for ages . So i must wait for the second round to attack Tsitsipas, providing that he will pass Thiem
Good luck punters! 

Bad Homburg - Fernandez to beat Blinkova - 1.79 with Betfair
Blinkova's game not suited for grass really, she's been struggling with emotions recently and was seen crying after losing to Avanesyan recently. She struggled against Lisicki and could have lost and I think Fernandez will take this. Leylah has been saying how she doesn't focus on results now, she's putting the work in and as long as she is training well doing things right then the results will come. If things get tight this will help her, and I feel Blinkova will start to worry about losing too much. 

Looking at Mallorca qualifying. Would be very surprised if Rinderknech and Harris don't win their matches. Class of the qualifying field. For me a small double here. Rinderknech just lost a little confidence on the clay, but behind a strong serve he is very tough on grass. Harris is a solid player, prob top 30/40 when his injury settles down and the rankings work themselves out.
My two big bets of the day are Alcaraz over De Minaur and Sasnovich over Masarova. Sasnovich on a strong run, and De Minaur will really battle with Alcaraz who is a better athlete (which will freak him out), and a better player.
Two Upsets:
I just don't rate Petra Kvitova anymore. On grass, her poor movement is covered over by a strong tricky serve. But if Vekic makes returns and gets in play, Kvitova will struggle.  At 1.44 she is just way to short, against an opponent in the form of her life. Not going crazy but a small starting bet on Vekic here. If Vekic starts to put pressure on the Kvitova serve early (ie. 2 of 1st 3 Kvitova serve games going to deuce), I'll make a much larger one. Just want to wait and see in-play.
Elize Cornet plays Martina Trevisioan at Bad Homburg, and I think Trevisioan has a real shot here. Not sure why Cornet is so short.
 

Anna Blinkova (-2.5) to beat Sabine Lisicki at 1.80 with Bet365
Although I really liked Lisicki back in the day, I'm afraid that she doesn't really have what it takes to be successful on the main tour anymore, as she's struggling even against "lesser" opposition. Blinkova has been solid recently, losing against Avanesyan is hardly shameful, and I expect her to take this comfortably.

Alcaraz is really unbelievable. His adjustment to grass has been swift. Gregor is a very tough opponent and he beat him easily in the end. He was also excellent against Lehecka. What I noticed is how clinical he was on the big points. This kid is beyond special, a once in a generational talent. He is so ridiculously athletic.
AS well as Korda is playing, and he was not great against Norrie, I just think he gets wiped out here. The development of Alcaraz is just so rapid and exceptional. Korda didn't play very well against Norrie (served badly and was not clinical), and i he repeats that performance he gets crunched here.
I cannot see beyond Rune in his match against De Minuar. ALex played Murray and Schwartzman, both who are not world class opponents at the moment. Easy wins. Against Mannarino he battled and I think he comes up short here. Rune is very deceptive. It looks like he drifts in matches, but again, very clinical when it counts.
 
I also think that Vekic beats Sakkari in Berlin. Sakkari playing much better but Vekic right on top of her game. Definitely an outside pick for Wimbledon.
 
Eastbourne qualifying I like three bets. 
Watson to beat Putintseva. Watson very solid on grass and her run continues.
Frech to beat Martincova  (I think this works out but will be close)
Bogdan to beat Udvardy (I like Anna Bogdan. Very solid player, with no QUIT/checkout button.
 

I do wonder where Djokovic is these weeks before a major. Curious as to how often he is drug tested, because why would you be missing tournaments ... unless he is practicing elsewhere.
Having watched a lot of Halle and Queens, two players have really stood out. Seb Korda has been excellent, and Jarry surprised me with his grass court skills. Korda was very very good against Evans. Served amazingly well, so smooth, but with quiet power. Doesn't look like he is hitting it hard but its a fastball. Evans could not cope, and Tiafoe was actually outgunned as well. It is going to take something special to beat Korda on grass, because that serve is a big weapon. It sets up his whole game.  I can't see Norrie getting close. 
The other giant is Jarry (at 6' 5). He actually dismantled Tsitsipas. Just turned it up a notch at a critical stage and Tsistipas could not answer. You can compare the serving of these guys to Isner, Raonic, Opelka etc ... but they can back up the 'serving bot' with serious talent and game. And both of them are exceptional athletes that move very well. For me Zverev cannot make the on court adjustments needed. I can't seem him ever winning a major. There is something missing. My feeling is that Jarry beats him.  I'm curious to see if Zverev dinintegrates again, like he did against Ruud at the French. Will be interesting.
 
Been watching Caroline Garcia a bit, and I find her tactics bizarre. Standing in so close to receive serve.  She never beats anyone comprehensively. Most of the time she squeeks over the line. Kvitova on grass probably too good for her.
 
Sakkari finding her confidence and form on grass , and I think she continues her winning streak against Vondrosouva. Weird for her to be such an underdog here.
 

I did watch a lot of her games, starting with the French against Bencic. She is kind of a slow starter, but is very good at figuring out opponents, and getting better tactically as the match progresses. There is a weakness in the serve, and surrendering a lot of serve breaks.  She seems very strong mentally ... there is no 'Quit' attitude, but Vekic on grass has an excellent combination of serving power, groundstrokes and movement. 

Very nice to see bets landing from everyone, so hopefully a good day all round.🤑🤑
That 1st week of grass is just a tricky time for favorites. Far easier to go slower from hard to clay. It is 2 steps down in speed, but clay to grass is like 5 steps up. After a week things settle down and players come more into their form. Case in point Sakkari with an easy win over Cornet today.
I do like a number of short priced favorites tomorrow. 
Boneventure to beat Brancaccio
Krejcikova to beat Martincova.
These two are my 'bankers' 🙄 for the day, and I'll take as a double.
Then in order of confidence
Vekic to beat Avanesyan.  Just a bridge too far for the youngster, who has already done exceptionally well. 
Sakkari to beat Sasnovich   Sakkari just too consistent here, especially against an opponent who can start pumping out double faults. SHe has found her grass feet after that shocker against Cornet a week ago.
Sinner to beat Sonego. Great style match up for Sinner here. I think in straights.
Potapova to beat Mcnally.  I like Potapova. She gives it everything and there is no holding back. Seems mentally quite tough.
Swan to beat Krueger  . Looking at serving stats I think Swan is a much better server, and I expect this to make the difference in a wild game with plenty of breaks.
Looking at my bets, I find that low medium priced doubles work best. Not betting the house, but a comfortable stake. I don't repeat players in multiple doubles. If they lose you lose multiple bets which hurts you.
I am taking Lehecka to take a set off Alcaraz.  Alcaraz so inexperienced on grass, while Lehecka coming off an excellent win against Davidovich Fokina. I think Lehecka could win here. Alcaraz pushed close to defeat last round and this could go against him.
Was very impressed with Korda's work against Evans. The Guardian suggested Evans struggled, but he was just outgunned. Basically blasted him off the court. Just pure power game. I think Korda may repeat the medicine against Francis Tiafoe tonight, in what will be a serving/1st strike contest. This one probably going 3 sets. Over 24.5 games is 1.95 and is my bet.
I caught the tail end of the Halle match between Jarry and Tsitsipas. Freaky power on the serve by Jarry, which sets up an ultra aggressive returning style. Easy to go for it, when you are steamrolling somebody with the serve. You basically have a 'free' shot every receiving game. Was surprised at the condition of the Halle courts. In bad shape after a few days, which Cinch/Queens looks hardly used.
My outsider for Wimbledon. Donna Vekic. Excellent win today over Rybakina. Just played really well, and held her nerve for a huge win.
Middle of WInter here (I think today was the shortest/longest day), and for people used to the sun, it is damn cold. House has 3mm single glaze glass windows 🥶 Gonna get under the duvet and watch the Tiafoe/Korda match which should be a blast.  August is already Spring here and then it's 8.5 months of Summer.
 
Good luck everyone 🤑
 
 
 

Ysaline Bonaventure (-1.5 sets) to beat Nuria Brancaccio at 1.90 with Unibet
I had the dubious pleasure of watching Brancaccio play against Bara in the first round here, and it was an absolutely awful match from which nobody should've gone through, really. If Bonaventure manages to play at least somewhere close to her usual standard, this should be a breeze for her. 

Mister Tsitsipas is the useless player ever as ranked five. He simply cannot use his backhand 👉he is simply vunrelanboul to all average to good players. Not even need to mention the top players! Here on grass the conditions are even unfortunate for him. His backhand was terrible against barrere. His service is not that effective as you may think. I watched a lot of that match.   Jarry for me is the best of the day.  Jarry @3 to beat Tsitsipas. I call it as worth to risk case, but not a value bet, because I reject value theories 😉 weii, Jarry worth to risk with maximum confidence! Good luck my punters!. 

I think Norrie matches up very well with Jordan Thompson.
Thompson not huge power, and probably gets outplayed by somebody better at the finesse game.
Have not been impressed with Bianca Andreescu. I watched her on clay, and shemoved really badly. Grass will make this lack of moment even more telling. For me she loses to a sneaky good player in Vondrousova. I think the left handed serve gives Andreescu problems all match.
Two longer shots that I like
Avanesyan to beat Blinkova. Avanesyan came back from the dead to beat Kasatkina yesterday. She was buried in the final set, and I couldn't believe it when I saw she won 7-6. Already, she has wins over very good players, and she is just starting out. Someone to keep an eye on.
Zhu to beat Linette (really nothing between them).
Will take the 2 longer shots as two separate bets.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+3.5) to beat Viktoria Azarenka at 1.80 with Unibet
Azarenka was really poor against Krueger, to the point where I was wondering if there's something going on with her again. Sasnovich played well throughout the entire last week, really, and she's solid enough mentally these days not to crumble just by seeing a big name player on the other side of the net. If the last week's forms of the two translate to anything here, Sasnovich should be very competitive.