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devil tish

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Posts posted by devil tish

    Pontefract 25/9

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Pontefract 25/9

    4.00 I've backed Hotham a couple of times this year and he carries top weight for this. As a CD winner drawn in stall 2, who acts on any ground, he ticks many boxes, but carrying a 6 lb penalty he is now 9 lbs above his latest winning mark. A drop in class may help here but I'm looking elsewhere. Comptonspirit is a CD winner too but stall 9 may not be ideal so I'm on Mr Wolf here who runs from stall 5. David Barker's gelding will race prominently so his draw is ideal and he has a fair CD record - 25327 this year. What those numbers do not indicate is how narrow some of those defeats were by - a short head second to Namir and half a length second to Comptonspirit (who had a favourable draw that day). What must also be taken into consideration is that two of those CD runs came from bad draws, in stalls 12 and 15, where he would have expended a great deal of energy getting into his favoured position, energy that he could have saved had he been drawn lower, in reserve for the steep climb in the final few furlongs. 5 of his 9 career wins have come at the West Yorkshire track, two over CD, and he is still on a competitive mark of 71. He's ran off 71 on his last two runs at Catterick, where he finished a 0.81 l 3rd, and at Chester when he again finished 3rd, this time beaten by a length by the 80-rated Bo McGinty and the improving Supermassive Muse who picked up that race off a mark of 79. He has his ground so if he can hang on to his lead he should have a chance here at 13/2.
    good shout fintron:ok bit disappointed with the run of joyeaux, the more i looked at her, the more i liked her. the sporting life websites official rating was 4lbs wrong. i have noticed this a few times just lately especially when an animal is due to go up or down in the next week or so. was the same with raptor in the ayr gold cup(3lbs wrong) so be advised....the racing posts official rating is normally spot on well done the other guys as well today:clap:clap:clap

    Pontefract 25/9

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Pontefract 25/9 4.00 Joyeaux 25/1 BetDirect/Stan james Open looking class 5, 5f handicap here and although the golden rule is to follow sprinters in form, i am taking a small punt on joyeaux here. Admittedly the filly has not been setting the world alight this season, but has had only two runs back since having a pretty good last back end. the handicapper is helping however dropping her from a mark of 67 1st run back to 60 today, with the useful duran duran fentiman taking another 3lbs off. looking at the runs last year, which included two seconds at ponty(one being todays corresponding race), off marks of 59 and 61 over todays trip. any reproduction of those runs should see her go close, so i reckon the 25's on offer is too big.

    Ayr Gold Cup Sat 20/9/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Ayr Gold Cup Sat 20/9/08 Raptor (EW) 50/1 Various ayr gold cup time, and the ground is soft and the silver cup draw suggests low. i am going 'against the grain' with the selection of raptor! drawn in 16 of a current 27 runners, and previous styles of running, suggest that raptor could track across to the other side, and come through in the final 2 furlongs. i like to look for horses with winning form over further, in the big field handicaps, with winning form on the ground. raptor is ticking all these boxes, but although recent form has been dissappointing, the first time blinkers could be the key to this horse, who still hasnt been gelded at the age of 5. running off a mark of 96(93 according to sporting life), 4lbs lower than previously winning from, and 2lbs lower than a close 2nd to snaefel at the curragh on heavy over 6f, which is very good form. i reckon he is overpriced at 50/1, and have backed him each way. the betfair price is currently 69/1. best of luck

    Inside Information given from professional

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Inside Information given from professional

    How do you know if that was geniune information, I could pick out 4 horses at half decent prices and get 2 go in. If it was then fair play, But id rather take tips off the guys that post up there own fancies, Many daily threads on here are in profit each day just from people using there own heads....
    exactly.... i really cant see how you can get 4 pieces of info in one day, it just doesnt happen. yep 2 winners out of 4 fair play, but inside info i doubt it. i have some good contacts around the north of england and can wait 6 months for some inside info. to me anyone can put a thread up saying i have had a tip blah blah, that just turns this into the betfair forum and the world of info and misinfo. there wont be any of my money going on this inside info if there is any more, but that is just my opinion. good luck to those blindly following them though, fortune favours the brave as they say. what separates this site from the rest is obvious...reasoning. billythepunter,russp,mowgli,gingertipster,stewartd,tedthewolf(mr value)bowlesy, and the vastly improved fintron will hammer this info pound for pound i reckon....but as always good luck to you.

    Doncaster - Sat 13/9/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Doncaster - Sat 13/9/08

    portland handicap 2.05 sirens gift 25/1 laddies this race should be named after halmahera that won 3 years on the trot a few years back for kevin ryan imo, but asides from that i have been looking for a value bet for tomorrows race....of course all eyes will be looking for soft ground performers, and the bookies will be reflecting this in the pricing of the race. a case can be made for most of the runners, yet the one i can make a good case for at big odds is sirens gift, which is currentlytrading at 25/1 at laddies, and 27.0 on betfair. trainer andrew balding could be in better form granted, and the filly has no form in the book on soft ground, but with no runs either, the form on the ground would have to be unknown. the case for sirens gift then....blinkers first time out, big positive for me, i was lucky enough to back toms laughter at ascot with a b1 next to his name, and have a feeling that the balding team were saving the first time blinkers for a 'big race'. 6f is too far for this filly, i think this 5.5 furlong race could be the ideal distance looking at previous starts over 6f and 5f. another positive for me...david probert(5). this stable knows when to use an apprentice, as seen in last years wokingham and dark missile for william buick. sirens gift runs off 93 minus the five, and has won off the 93 in september last year. last 2 winners have carried 8 13, sirens gift carries 8 13! bit tentative that one, co-incidence?? drawn ok in 14, middle to high has a good record in the race. so to summise..blinkered 1st time, good 5 pound claimer on board. winning mark, ok draw, ground unknown, same weight as last 2 winners, distance possibly ideal...value each way bet at 25/1 for me!
    great race, poor ride imo by the apprentice, guess thats why u get the 5lbs. hit the front way too soon, sirens gift going best of all at the 2 pole. the way it panned out she ended up stopping in front, but all in all happy with the place at 25's, with late money forcing the price into 12's. got some out on betfair at 3.0 so not bad race for me. thats what these big handicaps are all about....finding the value.

    Doncaster - Sat 13/9/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Doncaster - Sat 13/9/08

    portland handicap 2.05 sirens gift 25/1 laddies this race should be named after halmahera that won 3 years on the trot a few years back for kevin ryan imo, but asides from that i have been looking for a value bet for tomorrows race....of course all eyes will be looking for soft ground performers, and the bookies will be reflecting this in the pricing of the race. a case can be made for most of the runners, yet the one i can make a good case for at big odds is sirens gift, which is currentlytrading at 25/1 at laddies, and 27.0 on betfair. trainer andrew balding could be in better form granted, and the filly has no form in the book on soft ground, but with no runs either, the form on the ground would have to be unknown. the case for sirens gift then....blinkers first time out, big positive for me, i was lucky enough to back toms laughter at ascot with a b1 next to his name, and have a feeling that the balding team were saving the first time blinkers for a 'big race'. 6f is too far for this filly, i think this 5.5 furlong race could be the ideal distance looking at previous starts over 6f and 5f. another positive for me...david probert(5). this stable knows when to use an apprentice, as seen in last years wokingham and dark missile for william buick. sirens gift runs off 93 minus the five, and has won off the 93 in september last year. last 2 winners have carried 8 13, sirens gift carries 8 13! bit tentative that one, co-incidence?? drawn ok in 14, middle to high has a good record in the race. so to summise..blinkered 1st time, good 5 pound claimer on board. winning mark, ok draw, ground unknown, same weight as last 2 winners, distance possibly ideal...value each way bet at 25/1 for me!
    p.s. for the lads that remember em, tish special coming up early on next week;) know what i mean;) :lol:lol:lol

    Doncaster - Sat 13/9/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Doncaster - Sat 13/9/08 portland handicap 2.05 sirens gift 25/1 laddies this race should be named after halmahera that won 3 years on the trot a few years back for kevin ryan imo, but asides from that i have been looking for a value bet for tomorrows race....of course all eyes will be looking for soft ground performers, and the bookies will be reflecting this in the pricing of the race. a case can be made for most of the runners, yet the one i can make a good case for at big odds is sirens gift, which is currentlytrading at 25/1 at laddies, and 27.0 on betfair. trainer andrew balding could be in better form granted, and the filly has no form in the book on soft ground, but with no runs either, the form on the ground would have to be unknown. the case for sirens gift then....blinkers first time out, big positive for me, i was lucky enough to back toms laughter at ascot with a b1 next to his name, and have a feeling that the balding team were saving the first time blinkers for a 'big race'. 6f is too far for this filly, i think this 5.5 furlong race could be the ideal distance looking at previous starts over 6f and 5f. another positive for me...david probert(5). this stable knows when to use an apprentice, as seen in last years wokingham and dark missile for william buick. sirens gift runs off 93 minus the five, and has won off the 93 in september last year. last 2 winners have carried 8 13, sirens gift carries 8 13! bit tentative that one, co-incidence?? drawn ok in 14, middle to high has a good record in the race. so to summise..blinkered 1st time, good 5 pound claimer on board. winning mark, ok draw, ground unknown, same weight as last 2 winners, distance possibly ideal...value each way bet at 25/1 for me!

    Windsor 7/7/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Windsor 7/7/08

    9.00 2 horses that WILL go on the ground are Coin of the realm under Ryan Moore & Olimpo who is a previous CD winner. The former's trainer has a decent record here also. At 6/1 & 12/1 respectively, I will be playing both in this race EW.
    im on olimpo as well, got 34 last night which has reduced a bit due to n/r's. there will be money 4 this on course i reckon

    Needing to take my aggression out

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Needing to take my aggression out i back horses that have been reported to have been denied a clear run or similar lto in sprint handicaps early doors. these always get backed in(i would say 90% of the time), then i lay them at half the price if i am lucky and double my money regardless of the result. dont need a big bank to do this, £100-£300 easy make £50-£100 a race risk free. piece of p1ss making some good money at the moment with little risk, just a bit of trawling the form evening before the race:ok try it...it works

    Chepstow 23/6/08

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    Re: Chepstow 23/6/08 21.20 1m fillies handicap betonart 38.0 betfair. only 4th ever run today, up against plenty of highly tried animals. seb sanders reported saddle slipped last time out. 2 previous runs not too bad over 7f, staying on both times. speculative punt at a too big 38.0 on betfair.30 points shorter at betfred and vcbet at 8's:unsure

    Royal Ascot - 21/06/08

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    Posted

    Re: Royal Ascot - 21/06/08 425 wokingham 6f dark islander 40/1 boylesports e/w great e/w value bet for the wokingham in dark islander. drawn not too badly in stall 18. well overpriced for a horse that has been running in better company than this. has good winning form on gf at 7f which is a big plus for me in these big 6f handicaps. maybe a good one to back in running, as not expecting to hear his name until they hit the furlong pole(lol probably to say he has just been pulled up hehe).

    Royal Ascot - 21/06/08

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    Posted

    Re: Royal Ascot - 21/06/08

    2.30 Chesham stakes 9 of the last 10 winners had 1 previous run & 7 of those were winners. The race has prorduced 3 favs in 10 years. All of those 10 winners had run within the last 35 days. The only horse that qualifies is FREE AGENT a 5L winner on debut at leicester. 3.05 Hardwicke Stakes The coronation cup at Epsom is sometimes a good pointer to this race with 7 of the last 10 winners having run in that race prior to this. Maraahel is on a hat trick of wins but no 7yo has won in 10 years & Maraahel's trainers decision to run in the Brigadier gerrard stakes instead of Epsom indicates to me that the trip may now be on the stiff side. Only Macarthur & MUltidimensional ran in the Epsom race with the former trying to nick the race setting a very fast pace. That could make it vulnerable today to a thorough stayer however the 2L defeta by Soldier of fortune with Getaway behind in 4th looks top form. Lucarno will prefer this trip more than the sandown race where it needed the run & i can that placing today. For the winner, I will side with MACARTHUR to extend O'briens great run this week. 3.45 Golden Jubilee stakes 3 of the last 4 winners at Ascot ran 4 days prior in the Kings Stand stakes, 2 are going that route Kingsgate Native & Takeover Target. The latter finished 2nd in that race & can see it going close again today with this race suiting its style better. Favourites have a poor record & with no wins in 10, Sakhee's secret wont be holding my money. The dante meeting at York can hold the key to this race with US RANGER having been badly drawn finished a close up 4th to Assertive but surely would have won or at least 2nd if the draw bias hadnt been so evident. Drawn down the near side today, there will be no excuses for the O'brien horse & the odds of around 7/1 look decent ew value 4.25 Wokingham Ignore those drawn down the middle of the track as the draw normally plays a part with horses drawn 6 from either rail having the best of the race. 9 of the last 10 winners had finished 4th or better in their previous run. Not an ideal betting race for me but 3 against the field ew would be NOTA BENE 14/1, TAMAGIN 20/1 & BIG TIMER 40/1. 5.00 Duke of Edinburgh The favourites stat of 1 in 10 doesnt hold much hope but MAD RUSH looked a horse to follow for this season, staying on strongly to be beaten a nk by Punjabi at Newmarket over same trip. Roger Charlton won one of the big handicaps during the week & my saver would go on his one PROPONENT who may be another improver but stepping up in trip today.
    nice writeup bowles:clap i agree with us ranger, i have waded into this one pretty large today, lets hope he is good enough
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