janekda

Belinda Bencic to beat Johanna Konta at 2.20 with bet365
Belinda seems to be back to shape again since she impressed after beating Andrea Petkovic in straight sets. The head to head is 2-1 for Belinda after she's beaten Johanna last season in Eastbourne and once on hardcourt in Acapulco 2014. Johannas only win came in straight sets 2014 on the grass of Eastbourne. Maybe Johanna should have lost to Pironkova but she weathered the storm after a long injury break where she had problems with the heat I think. Against Belinda who seems to be back into some better form it should be even harder.

Alexander Dolgopolov to beat David Ferrer at 3.25 with bet365
The happy days of David Ferrer seems to have come to an end this season. He will have a very hard time here. Not going to be easy for him to beat Dolgopolov. When Ferrer was on top of his game he could beat anyone but now he instead loses to anyone. Since the french open where he lost badly to Berdych he's lost to Mahut in SW19 also badly and after that he dropped a set to Calvin Hemery ranked outside top 300 in Bastad and lost in the same tournament to Albert Ramos in straight sets also a player he would have beaten in his glory days. Then it got even worse when he lost in the olympics to Evgeniy Donskoy after winning first set and being a break up in second and right after that in Cincinatti he lost to Julien Benneteau a player who also has seen better days but still David could not win. Alexander has already beaten David once in straight sets this season in Acapulco and he has a great chance to do it again.

Back Jelena Ostapenko to beat Petra Kvitova at 3.50 with Skybet
This has to be tried after the disaster against Radwanska in New Haven. Not only did Kvitova lose that match horribly, but she also claimed to be ill afterwards and even saying that she might not be fully fit for the US Open. That's not the only thing to be worried about here from her side, however - she's already lost against Ostapenko twice in this very season, after all. There's no doubt that Kvitova is the favourite here, but these odds look too juicy given the circumstances.

Back Alesandro Giannessi to beat Denis Kudla at 2.75 with Ladbrokes
I don't have anything against Kudla, but he hasn't won a match since the grass court season and he's folded in every single match since Wimbledon, where he shockingly lost against Dzumhur at similar odds as in this match. Giannessi, on the other hand, has qualified here with decent wins and he's always looked like a very determined player to me, which could count for a lot if this match gets long and tough. Interestingly, Kudla has never done well in his previous US Open showings, so perhaps there are some nerves for him when playing on the big stage in front of a home crowd.

Back Sara Errani to beat Shelby Rogers at 1.80 with Coral
Am I missing something here? Errani has declined by quite a bit in recent times, but she's still much better than Rogers imo, with the American having exactly one good run this year. That was in the French Open, where she beat the likes of Kvitova, Pliskova and Begu, but she's 3-6 on hard courts for the season and she's won exactly one match since the glorious run, beating Mladenovic in New Haven. Errani should be 1.57 tops in my opinion.

Andrew Whittington to beat Joao Souza at 2.25 with bet365
I don't trust Joao to put Andrew away in the US open qualies. The brazilian have almost exclusively focused on the clay this year, almost more then he used to do and he hasn't played on hardcourt since april when losing in straight sets to Omar Jasika. I can belive Joao is on a level of around 200 in the world on hardcourt, maybe worse. Souza has won two challenger crowns lately on clay and now the obstacle of changing surface. Andrew seems to have reached a good moment in his career now playing very well on the challenger hardcourt tournaments reaching a final, semi-final and a quarter in his last three tournaments. He plays similar to Brian Baker. Quite a heavy serve and efficient follow-up forehand but a highly limited backhand. But anyway he's raised his level this season from being a hardcourt future player to a decent hardcourt challenger player. Souza has some momentum coming into this because of winning his last two clay challengers but anyway, I think I'll give Andrew a go here.

Again as usually I'm cautious about this match. Lorenzi is special player. Clay court player but with imrpessive stats 20:2 on hard court with players under him in ranking. I can imagine for Frantangelo it was harder to go into match with him. Last 2 sets were relatively easy for F. And surprise F. won last 7 matches when he was set down and match went to third set.

I've surprised by so high odd on Opelka. I'm afraid there are some hidden facts. Opelka should be bigger favorite.
edit: Maybe there is sentiment with Roger. When I saw his last match was in W it's nice. And even more he has pretty bad results at USO. And with Opelka he made big jump in Atlanta and maybe it is too fresh for punters

Khachanov - Basic 2.98
Khachanov is clay court player. Last match was on clay. And now he will play on hard court with hard court player. I know K. is generally better player but not on hard especially when he hasn't prepared for USO.

Back Rajeev Ram (+2.5) to beat Kyle Edmund at 1.73 with Paddy Power
Ram should cover this line more often than not imo with his tricky playing style that could easily frustrate Edmund, who hasn't been in the best of forms lately. The American, on the other hand, is fresh from Rio and he's got a medal to show for his efforts as well, which could do a lot for his confidence. No reason to worry about the US Open either, as he's secured a WC for himself, so this is all about him trying his best in home conditions - and, considering that he's recently beaten Gulbis and Pouille, it would be very wrong to underestimate him.

Bondarenko - Mladenovic 4.7
There is bigger possibility to turn match as for me. I has aggreed with odds on Bondarenko before match.
 
Golubic - Nara 2.05
Is this odd only because of LL in Cincy? I've prized Golubic as bigger favourite with 1.7. Golubic dislikes to play with hard hitters who controls thei aggression (opposite are crazy hard hitters like Kvitova, Giorgi). Nara has lost 5 of last 6 when priced as Favourite ($1.50 to $1.999). And she has no really good results last time.

Daria Gavrilova to beat Elina Svitolina for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with bet365
Gavrilova has beaten Svitolina twice by 2-0 in sets on hard court in the Hopman Cup at the beginning of the year and on clay in Madrid with and last year Svitolina won by 2-1 and 6- 4 in the decider so then it was even also and now another match between the two.
Svitolina is not as good as the results against Serena at the Olympics says. Serena had one of her poorer days only. It wasn't Svitolina who played the tennis of her life. Match after she was outclassed by Petra Kvitova to come down to earth. Now maybe she did not play for very long in Rio so it is not likely to affect very much but to go to Cincinnati and meet Gavrilova who played just fine yesterday does not bode well. Gavrilova had not a single break point against her during the game against Carolina Garcia. Maybe Svitolina can create more chances than Garcia did but it is ridiculus how good Gavrilova played yesterday.
Feels clearly worth investing in Gavrilova who already recorded a win on the surface of Cincinnati.
 
 

Louisa Chirico to beat Timea Babos for a 7/10 stake at 4.00 with bet365
I'll take Louisa any day here against this out of form Timea who just does'nt play very good nowadays. She's doing unforced errors for fun and the only thing she does good is her slicing and it isn't enough to win matches. I'm taking Louisa here because of her decent level and she's got the home advantage and it's not smart to go for a big favourite like Timea here when she's making so many unforced errors. When Timea played Jelena Ostapenko in Florianopolis quarter there where 9 straight breaks of serve before Jelena Ostapenko finally won the first set and the only thing taking Timea through was her slice and Jelena Ostapenkos huge number of unforced errors.

M.Zverev - F.Lopez 3.0
Zverev has good wins against dangerous opponents in Cincy in Q (Mannarino, Marchenko). He played with lefty Mannarino sho he's prepared for another lefty.  Lopez was last week in final and it could be worse for him to prepare for Cincy. Their last match was not so clear as result shows. For me is fair odd about 2.5 for Zverev

M.Zverev - F.Lopez 3.0
Zverev has good wins against dangerous opponents in Cincy in Q (Mannarino, Marchenko). He played with lefty Mannarino sho he's prepared for another lefty.  Lopez was last week in final and it could be worse for him to prepare for Cincy. Their last match was not so clear as result shows. For me is fair odd about 2.5 for Zverev

Back Daria Gavrilova to beat Caroline Garcia at 1.91 with Coral
First of all, I think that there's a very small difference between the two quality-wise, but what makes me like this bet a lot is Garcia's current status. She's just losing everywhere she goes and the poor Olympics performance won't do her any good either in my opinion, as she went 1-3 across three disciplines, with her lone win coming against the out-of-form Pereira. Gavrilova, on the other hand, is performing on a fairly consistent level, so I'd give her some sort of an edge here.

Back Nicolas Mahut (+4.5) to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut at 1.85 with BetVictor
Too big a line in my opinion, even though Bautista-Agut is the much more complex player and all that jazz. That said, Mahut has been superb in the singles lately and he's covered this line in all 6 of their previous matches (!), so backing him on the games handicap looks like the bet to me. Bautista-Agut also spent slightly more time than Mahut in the Olympics and that's obviously hardly an advantage for him.

Back Kateryna Bondarenko to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 2.50 with Ladbrokes
Mladenovic is in such a mess at the moment form-wise and her Olympics were shambles from the mental point of view, so I'm not sure that she'll be able to deliver a good performance against Bondarenko, who's had no Rio duties to worry about. Instead, she's travelled to Cincinnati early for the qualifiers, played two decent matches and is ready to go - and that alone makes her a very live underdog in my opinion. With Mladenovic losing against Kudryavtseva in a similar situation before the Olympics, she could easily lose against Bondarenko after them.

Good pick Fader. It's always nice when a match pans out exactly the way you thought it would.

Bogdan - Babos 3.35
I think about Bogdan whole week. And I made bet on Jankovic. I see she plays well with interesting results. Babos can have troubles with fittness Bogdan. She lost with Ostapenko on first set 4 services and won! 

5pts F.Verdasco to beat J.Benneateau 2-0 Evens Sportingbet
4pts Y.Nishioka +3.5 games to beat A.Dolgopolov Evens Skybet
3pts J.Donaldson to beat N.Kyrgios 10/3 Bet365

Nishioka has a good chance against Dolgo but I'm backing Nish to keep it tight and going with the +3.5 handicap. Nish has beaten some good players in Evans, Ram etc and only really lost to the likes of Thiem and Muller when they've played just too good. Dolgo has been poor of late losing to Young and Querrey and even when he done well, like at Acapulco that was a tournament Dolgo was defending points after doing well the previous year. Here, he went out early last year to lowly ranked Go Soeda.
Verdasco has a 4-0 head-2-head and has only lost one set to Benneteau on the slow clay. I think this match could be a quick one. Benneteau is bang out of form and I'd be surprised if he got a set on the faster hard surface. Finally, Donaldson match looks like a sexy honey trap to me so I'm keeping the stakes low. I don't want no handicap on this as it could be a Kyrgios demolishing if he fancies it but will he? if Shapalalov can beat Nick, Jared certainly can as he is playing the best tennis of his career recently.
 

I think I'm going to go for an outright for the rest of the week. 
2pts V.King to win WTA Nanchang 4/1 Coral
King has played some really good Tennis over the past few weeks and has beaten everyone in this field at some point over the last few years. She had a good Canadian Masters, beaten the likes of Babos and only going out to Konta. She brushed aside Storm Sanders in the previous round and looks to be set to play Schiavone in the Semi-final (a player she's beaten on the hard a couple of years back and then Nara in the final, again a players she's beaten) 
 

Barthel - Shvedova 2.00
I slightly aggreed with Czechpunter's bet on Slava Shvedova with 2.05 but odds were changed. And the main important fact for me is last match of Mona in Gstaadt. She was defeated 2:1 by winner of tournament. As for me Mona is ready to go far into the tournament.
 
Allertova - Knapp 2.2
It's a little bit risky match. Both of them have played no so much last time. Especially Denisa. Knapp won last mont clay ITF tournament but with no so good players. I think tennis quality is clearly on Allertova side. But there is question: What says her health? It's better to bet where avoids bet after retirement.

I was also looking at Allertova but decided against it due to her probable injury.

Back Yaroslava Shvedova to beat Mona Barthel for a 7/10 stake at 2.05 with BetVictor
Back Polona Hercog to beat Julia Goerges for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with Paddy Power
Shvedova is on the up imo, so I'd have her as the favourite against Barthel, while I also fancy Hercog at the offered odds. Goerges is just too up-and-down at the moment to be a 1.50ish favourite in such a tough match-up.
Full preview here: http://punts.pl/SXJkNK