NornIron

Good call.  

Think Southampton will beat a very ordinary Swansea side today.  Saints have had a slow start to the season but signs on Thurs night (3-0 win v S. Prague) that they are on the up. Despite losing Mane, Pelle and Wanyama, they have a very strong squad and I expect them to get a comfortable win today.  Swansea got a creditable 2-2 draw v Chelsea last weekend but most observers saw that as a very lucky point for the Swans.  They are a dull team and will battle relegation this season in my opinion. 
Southampton 3-0 (13/1 - Bet Victor) or 4-0 (28/1 - Bet Victor) is the bet. 

Some ridiculous offside rulings and incredible misses

Yeah, the Premier League is tougher than ever and with more money than ever up for grabs team will be more cautious. I think the games between the top teams will be a lot tighter this year. A point against one of the title rivals will be more precious this season. Those are not bad calls for the draws. I think Middlesbrough could beat Stoke though!

Haha, big call on Southampton there NornIron! I'm not sure I can see it happening. I think they will fall further down the table. Here are my predictions...
1. Manchester City (think Pep is just going to fine tune things and will get it right - still think they will fall short in Europe again)
2. Manchester United (Jose always does well in his first season or two but then gets bored. He's wanted this job for ages so he'll thrive)
3. Chelsea (Conte has the basis of a very good squad but he's going to need time to adapt his tactics to the Premier League before he pushes for a title challenge)
4. Arsenal (signing Granit Xhaka is a wise decision but they still lack defensively. Still think Wenger will get the standard Champions League qualification spot)
5. Liverpool (I'm not totally sold on Klopp's signings but he can bring the best out of even the most average players so think they will flourish this season but just miss out on top four)
6. Tottenham (it will be difficult for Pochettino to replicate last season's success. I rate him as a manager but their lack of movement in the transfer market is disconcerting)
7. Everton (I think Koeman will take the Toffees to the next level and I was even tempted to put them above Spurs. It's going to be close)
8. West Ham (it appears Payet is staying and that will be key. I think they will love life in their new home in front of the big crowd and Bilic is such a class man manager)
9. Leicester (Kante has gone and I still think Mahrez will leave. Those two players were massive but I have liked the look of their new additions. I think they will still have a positive season but nowhere near last season)
10. Middlesbrough (I think if they continue along this route with their signings they could be the surprise package this season)
11. Southampton (their new manager is an interesting one but I think he will need time to adapt and so will the players. Will have a solid season but will fall short of Europe)
12. Sunderland (I think Moyes will do well with them. They have everything in place for a decent manager to start the season well with them. He'll turn them into mid-table mediocrity)
13. Stoke (I'm still not a massive fan of Hughes. I think he should do better with the players he has. I think he'll under-achieve and get sacked this season)
14. Swansea (totally agree with neilovan - vanilla)
15. Crystal Palace (I think they will fall short of doing anything and it could be a season that sees Pardew depart Selhurst Park)
16. West Brom (Tony Pulis never gets teams relegated!)
17. Burnley ( I actually think Dyche will be wiser and I think he's one of the best British managers around so will guide them to safety if they spend right)
18. Bournemouth (I think selling Ritchie was a massive mistake and they could well struggle purely due to a lack of resources and quality)
19. Watford (will have a terrible season. Big risk changing manager and could be a long campaign ending in relegation)
20. Hull (not much I like about the club and wouldn't care if they went down in 20th place)

1.   Man Utd   (Great signings in every line of the game. Mourinho is not there to come second | Mou loves the 2-0 scoreline)
2.   Man City  (All the firepower is there, just turn the engine on | Over 2.5 goal champions this season)
Top two way better than the rest for me. 6 to 10 point gap between them and the rest.
 
3.   Chelsea (Conte will be excellent for Chelsea. No better defensive manager in league | will be a top NO to BTTS bet every week )
4.   Liverpool (Klopp is a great manager, but Liverpool can't compete financially. | Great 1st half team)
5.   Arsenal ( 22 Goal per season striker problem  | too many of the 'same type' of players | To win you GOTTA Spend some cash)
6.   Tottenham (The lack of on-field leadership shown in that game vrs. Chelsea, showed me that Spurs don't have the BMT to win it).
Any combination of the above four teams in these positions. I don't think any of them have the total package needed to win the league.
 
7.   Leicester  (Midweek champions League games are going to be very disruptive for Leicester. The squad is not deep enough for this | Double Chance on opponent after midweek games)
8.   Everton (Koeman gets Everton back on track | Great home form)
9.   Stoke (Stoke were horrid away from home last season. Can they get the attacking balance right on away days?)
10.   Southampton (I don't think people understand what a solid Coach Koeman is)
11.  West Ham  ( Expect a slow start to a vanilla season, maybe a decent cup run ).
Any combination of the above five teams in these positions.  
 
12.   Swansea  (Just vanilla again).
13.   Middesbrough (Rock solid defense that has improved year on year will make them tough to beat).
14.   Bournemouth  (Howe will keep them up )
 
Six goes into three relegated
 
 16.   West Brom  (Showed awful form towards the end of last season, not winning any of their last 9 league games.).
 17.   Sunderland ( A miracle that Sunderland stayed up ... thank Big Sam. I see them really struggling under Moyes. Can you try too hard ?)
18.   Crystal Palace  ( Palace winning just 2 of their last 21 league games, only stayed up due to an impressive start.).
18.   Watford     (New manager upheaval could see them relegated ). 
19.   Burnley  (Relegated : They just don't have the firepower to stay in the league).  
20    Hull    (Relegated : A disenfranchised Owner and managerial upheaval  ).
 

OK, let me have a crack at this.  It's probably a billion to one to predict the outcome of the entire Premier League but, for what it's worth, here's my effort:
1.   Man City  (Guardiola factor kicks in early)
2.   Man Utd   (Mourinho back to his tactical best)
3.   Southampton (This year's surprise package....some shrewd signings in Redmond &  Hojbjerg adding to an already impressive squad.)
4.   Liverpool (Klopp getting closer but no cigar this year...settles for top 4).
5.   Chelsea (another season of struggle for Chelsea.  Conte fails to ignite the Blues)
6.   Arsenal (The unthinkable happens and they miss out on Top 4.....Wenger's swansong).
7.   Stoke (Joe Allen inspires the Potters to the dizzy heights of Europa League)
8.   Everton (Koeman stabilises the Toffees and on track for top 4 in 2017/18)
9.   Leicester  (the people's champions not disgraced but lightening fails to strike twice)
10.  West Ham  (Big ambition, big budget and big crowds but average results).
11.   Sunderland (Moyes get's it right (finally)....scraps enough boring victories to attain a decent finish)
12.   Tottenham (Pochettino's departs for the Argentina job and Spurs slump to this season's big disappointment).
13.   Middesbrough (Boro comfortably finish as the highest placed new-comers).
14.   West Brom  (Same old story.  Half decent home form but dreadful on the road).
15.   Swansea  (Flirt with relegation but a 4 game winning streat in February hauls them clear).
16.   Crystal Palace  (Pardew leaves mid season for a better job offer...Palace just do enough to stay up).
17.   Bournemouth    (Last day win.  Eddie Howe works his magic and keeps the Cherries in the Premier League, yet again.)
18.   Watford     (A bridge too far.....slump to a final day defeat and relegation). 
19    Hull    (Losing Bruce proves to be a hurdle that can't be overcome....straight back to the Championship they go).
20.   Burnley  (Relegated by early March on very few points).  
 
 

i've followed you on this norniron-only got 12/1 with hills (now 10's). It is hard to judge where the danger lies-bournemouth for example could perform better than expected but have only 6 points on palace with hills. I suppose what i'm trying to say is you need to decide who may be dangers getting points from your selection and choose the bookie offering the lowest points difference. I suspect one of the promoted teams will do ok, 888 for example give bournemouth 11 points on palace and 45 on chelsea.

Stoke to be relegated: 2 Points @ 15.00 Bet365 As a Stoke fan, it's not the easiest pick and by no means am I saying that I expect the Potters to be relegated. I don't. However, this price is just too big. I shall explain why. We made a massive amount of progress last season and the last match of the season saw a deserved 6-1 win against Liverpool and everything was looking rosy. Steven Nzonzi was man of the match that day. In fact, he was also player of the season and man of the match in a number of games. So my first point is that the loss of him this pre season cannot be underestimated. He was the glue that held us together and he is going to be very hard to replace. Van Ginkel has come in on loan from Chelsea and for his first year in the premier league as a starter, hopes got very big boots to fill. His arrival saw Asmir Begovic going the other way to Chelsea. whilst we do have a good ready made replacement in Jack Butland, it is also easy to underestimate the influence of a top goalkeeper in your side. Begovic could command a box and there's no doubt in my mind that we will miss him. Butland could be as good in time but he's still inexperienced and it's likely to take him a couple of years to grow into the position. The next body low is the news of Ryan Shawcross' injury. Having struggled with injury since the end of last season, Ryan barely featured this pre season and news has now come out that he needs surgery on his back which will keep him out for at least a couple of months. Call me sceptical but I can see it being longer than that and then he has to get up to speed having add no pre season e.t.c Ryan is very underrated by many but believe me, he's been colossal for Stoke and this is a devastating blow. So you can start to see a picture forming of the key spine to last years side being depleted. gk Begovic, centre half Shawcross and centre midfield Nzonzi. 3 of our star players absolutely crucial to the side. What concerns me most this year is the defence. With Begovic gone and Shawcross out for a while we are missing experience, but more than that it's the lack of a quality replacement/cover for Shawcross that concerns me. Hughes has signed Philip Wollscheid who we had on last year and he has been very poor and error prone. Marc Wilson played a lot last year and could be solid for 89 minutes but regularly drip that 1 clanger which would cost us a goal. Geoff Cameron is a utility man who can do a job as centre half for the odd emergency but the thought of him there regularly doesn't fill me with confidence. The final and best option is young Marc Muniesa but he continually seems to struggle with hamstring problems. Put any of them alongside Shawcross and I'd be happy. Having 2 of them as our partnership for a sustained period of time fills me with dread. Fullbacks wise Erik Pieters is solid enough on the left but another who seems to struggle a bit with injuries. And Glen Johnson has been bought in as right back. If we were solid in the middle he could be a decent enough attacking fullback to add but when we look weak defensively already it looks a very dangerous move with his poor concentration. In other areas of the pitch we do have some good quality but the squad is looking unbalanced. As I say, this isn't a bet because I definitely think Stoke will go down. But I think we may struggle this season whilst a lot of other sides look to be improving. I also think the 3 promoted sides look relatively strong and all have a chance of staying up. All things considered, the price here just looks too generous and isn't right.

Good work on Palace all, prices well hammered. For anyone late to the party, Powers have a market on finishing position vs last season. Here Palace are 3/1 to improve on last season, which would mean 9th or better. Better value than the 2.75 on top ten, or the ew element of any 'without the big 6' prices.

Thanks NornIron, yeh I think it's an interesting bet and probably worth taking, we must all focus our positive mental energies on the mighty Palace this campaign!

Yes, that's right Das Phantom, they have a full 39 point start over Chelsea, 37 points over Man City, 33 points over Arsenal etc. Just checked...and you are correct. Hills have cheekily trimmed the Palace price to 12/1 (they offered 15/1, 2 days ago). Betfred still offer 15/1 but have cut Palace's advantage by one point to +38 points. It is a complicated bet to gauge value, yes, and a difficult bet to follow progress on during the season (as it involves adding the individual handicap advantages to every team!). Palace could potentially finish 11th or 12th and still land the bet although I suppose they could also finish 7th or 8th and fail to land it if Chelsea or City run away with the title. It's a fun bet for me.

Does that mean a 39pt advantage over the eventual premier league winners of 2015/2016? If so then Chelsea finished 39pts above Palace in 2014/2015, Will Hill are currently offering +39 @ 12/1 for Palace on odds checker. I don't have any experience betting on seasonal handicaps so I'm not sure how to gauge the value of something like that, on the surface it seems +ev but it's a sketchy market for me atm.

Crystal Palace top 10 finish @ 3.50 Titanbet > 2.5% BR Obviously the signing of Yohan Cabaye is a big boost for Palace but also a statement of intent for the club. My main concern for Palace was the situation surrounding Scott Dann but Palace chairman Steve Parish has announced that Dann is definitely staying and will soon sign a new deal. Both pieces of news has given me enough confidence to back Palace in the top half finish market despite my own projections of increased competition for that objective in 2015/2016. First off we can assume the top 6 places will be beyond Palace with Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester Utd, Liverpool and Tottenham a class above. Realistically that leaves 4 remaining places for a top 10 finish (7-10). At the time of writing this, my view is that the teams rivaling Palace for these 4 positions will be: Everton, Stoke City, Southampton, West Ham and Swansea City. Everton: Out of all the top 10 rivals, Everton have the strongest individual quality imo. This is offset by a limited budget and a small squad which was highlighted by how unbalanced Roberto Martinez’s side looked in 2014/2015 with square pegs in round holes and limited options to alter their game plan. Their eggs were firmly dumped in one basket with the expensive and ambitious signing of Romelu Lukaku which weakened the squad on a holistic level while an inconvenient Europa league campaign compounded the issue. I expect more from them in 2015/2016 but they will need to add numbers to their squad whilst the pressure on Martinez is slowly building from a set of expectant supporters. I feel they should make the top 10 no problem this year, if they don’t it will almost certainly be bye bye Bobby. Betfair sports book currently values them @ 1/3 for top 10 finish in 2015/2016, value is virtually non-existant. Southampton: The genius of Ronald Koeman helped Southampton to surpass all expectations in 2014/2015 with a very respectable 7th placed finish. The team is strong in all areas but they now face the headache of Europa league football in 2015/2016 whilst also struggling to hang on to their best and brightest. Koeman, being from the Netherlands, is used to a high turnover of personnel and is better equipped to deal with such problems compared to most managers. Despite this I do not feel Southampton are guaranteed a top 10 finish in 2015/2016 and Betfair’s sports book price of 1/3 for a top 10 finish holds no value imo. Stoke City: Mark Hughes should be applauded for Stoke’s 9th placed finish in 2014/2015 when you consider the amount of key players that were absent for prolonged periods during the campaign. They’re a similar team to Palace in many ways and I expect their consistent level of performance and competiveness to continue in 2015/2016. POTY Steven N’Zonzi has left the club but I expect they will manage to find a decent replacement. Betfair sports book has them priced @ 10/11 for a top 10 finish – the correct valuation in my view, no +ev for me. Crystal Palace: Fast becoming a very dangerous outfit under Alan Pardew, the only real weak areas are at left-back and centre-forward but Glenn Murray will score goals at this level given a good run in the team. McArthur and Cabaye raise the standard in the centre of the park while Zaha’s performances became stronger and stronger in the second half of 2014/2015, watch out for him this season, he is becoming a real player. Generally the club is becoming more ambitious but it is going about it in a sensible and structured way. Pardew achieved a top 10 finish in 2014/2015 despite 4 months of the campaign being a write-off thanks to the stewardship of his predecessor Neil Warnock. Betfair sports book have Palace @ 2/1 for a top 10 finish in 2015/2016 and for me there is a little bit of value to be had with such a price. West Ham Utd: West Ham are in the midst of a big transition with the club soon moving to the Olympic stadium while a change in manager may also mean a slight change in style. Slaven Bilic is an interesting character but his managerial credentials at EPL level are yet untested. West Ham also potentially have a tricky Europa league campaign to deal with in 2015/2016 which may test Bilic a bit more than he would have liked. So far their summer signings have been impressive, I am a big fan of Pedro Obiang and Angelo Ogbonna. The squad has real quality and strength in depth. The problem is that they are in a period of transition and cannot be viewed as having the same level of cohesion and unity compared to the likes of Palace and Swansea. Does Bilic have the ability to rise to the challenge and meet the high expectations of the club and its supporters? I believe he does, but it’s not going to be one of the easier jobs in the EPL right now given the circumstances. Betfair’s sports book has West Ham priced @ 7/4 for a top 10 finish in 2015/2016, the valuation looks fair but certainly not long, no +ev for me. Swansea City: Gary Monk did a fantastic job guiding Swansea to an 8th placed finish in 2014/2015. The team spirit and cohesion at the club under his stewardship is excellent but I feel the club probably reached it’s apex in 2014/2015 with not much room for further climbs. They play as a team and are hard to beat with a bit of quality in one or two places but generally I feel they may struggle to replicate a top 10 finish in 2015/2016 with such an increased level of competition from the teams around them. Betfair sports book values them @ EVS for a top 10 finish in 2015/2016 and I actually think this maybe a little short, certainly no value in the price for me. Outside of the teams mentioned we can also consider the likes of Newcastle, Leicester and West Brom to have an outside chance of a top 10 finish but at the time of writing this there are still big question marks regarding management (Newcastle and Leicester) or the quality of the playing staff (West Brom). This highlights why it can be risky to take ante-post bets this early in the proceedings as there will still be a lot of developments before the transfer window closes and the season starts. Despite this I feel Palace are well placed to achieve a top 10 finish in 2015/2016 as the club has real holistic strength. Their market valuation is clearly more attractive than their immediate rivals and although it’s hardly value bet of the century, the price is +ev in my view.

I agree that Palace are in for a decent season, following a couple of class acquisitions, in Bamford and Cabaye. Rather than take the 16/1 for what presumably would have to be, a 7th place finish....I consider a better bet would be on the handicap market. Hills give Palace a massive +39 point start over scratch Chelsea, and in my opinion that's very generous at 15/1. That's 12 points ahead of Saints, 10 ahead of Everton, 4 ahead of Swans & West Ham. In what looks like a tight Premier League this season, they could potentially finish 10th or lower and still fulfil the handicap. Good luck with your bet though...I think they'll give you a tremendous run.